Profitable, now in the Godolphin blue, goes for more sprint success at Glorious Goodwood

Palace House Stakes Preview, Tips

Palace House Stakes 2017: Preview, Tips

Arguably the best race on the supporting card for this Saturday's 2000 Guineas at Newmarket is the five furlong Palace House Stakes, a Group 3.

Before you think, hang on, there's a Group 2 on this card (the Jockey Club Stakes), consider this: the last seven winners of the Palace House Stakes have gone on to win in Group 1 company that same season. It is a superb trial for the King's Stand Stakes at Ascot, with Equiano, Sole Power twice, Goldream and Profitable all winning here and then there; but Tangerine Trees also managed to win the G1 Abbaye at the end of a season which began in the Palace House, and Mayson snaffled the six furlong July Cup having earlier claimed this prize.

This race is a very strong pointer to future Group 1 sprinting prizes: follow the winner closely. Especially seeing as Tangerine Trees was 14/1 when scoring in his G1, Goldream was 20/1 and so too was Mayson. Equiano was 9/2, and Sole Power was 8/1 and 5/1 when winning his brace of King's Stands, and Profitable was 5/1 when scoring in the same race last season. Yum.

That's all well and good in terms of the future, but what about this year's Palace House Stakes and finding the winner there?

 

DRAW

It is worth noting that the winner has been a fancied runner - 15/2 or shorter - in twelve of the last fifteen years. And those drawn low have slightly outperformed numerical representation, with middle faring better than high, judged on that same basis.

Looking more generally at races run at Newmarket over this distance and in big fields, since 2009, the Geegeez Gold DRAW tab reveals the following:

5f draw bias at Newmarket (big fields, fast ground)

5f draw bias at Newmarket (big fields, fast ground)

 

This year, the horses are drawn as follows, which might be a help for the likes of Profitable and Muthmir and/or a hindrance for Washington DC and the penalized Marsha. This information can be found on both the main CARD tab and the PACE tab in Geegeez Gold racecards.

Low to middle is probably going to be favoured in the Palace House Stakes

Low to middle is probably going to be favoured in the Palace House Stakes

 

FORM PROFILE

Draw is an advantage (or not) bestowed by Lady Luck whereas form in the book is earned. Below is the record of the field against the current race's key conditions - going, class, course, distance and field size - in all UK/Irish races, as shown on the INSTANT EXPERT tab on our race cards.

Palace House Stakes: win form profiles for UK/Irish runs

Palace House Stakes: win form profiles for UK/Irish runs

 

And, because it often shows a more rounded view of the form, here is the same profile filtered on PLACE data:

Palace House Stakes: place form view

Palace House Stakes: place form view

 

We can see that most of the field are regulars in the places at this five furlong trip, but a couple who catch the eye as highly consistent against the Palace House conditions are Priceless and Alpha Delphini. The latter has a nice draw in stall two, whereas the former is drawn a bit higher, in ten.

 

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PACE

In my opinion, the most often overlooked critical piece of information in UK and Irish form reading, is pace. Specifically, how will the race be run: which horses will race prominently, and from where in the draw - and therefore where on the track - are they likely to congregate?

Our PACE tab, which - like all of the Geegeez Gold tabs - can be sorted by any column the user chooses, shines a bright light on how the race is likely to be run. We already know from the draw information higher up this post that horses drawn low to middle tend to be favoured. And we can see from the traffic light 'blobs' highlighted below that horses running on or close to the pace (LED or PROMINENT) have fared best over this course and distance.

To see which runners are likely to fit that criterion, we need to check the 'Score' column. Horses are scored from 4 to 16 for four completed UK/Irish runs, and the higher the score, the more likely a horse is to want to lead. Thus, 16 means a horse led in each of its last four starts; 4 means it was held up in each of its last four.

I've sorted the view below by draw, so we can see where on the course there might be 'pockets' of pace: a scenario which might lead to one part of the track being favoured. In this race, there is a good smattering of early pace - identified by scores of 14-16 - across the field, and it may be that the race plays out around the centre of the track. That may again be in Priceless's favour.

Palace House Stakes: pace chart, sorted by draw

Palace House Stakes: pace chart, sorted by draw

 

BRINGING IT ALL TOGETHER

Very quickly then, we have a view on how the race might be run (PACE), which horses have shown the most relevant form (INSTANT EXPERT), and whether any part of the track may be favoured (DRAW and PACE).

We noted that Priceless had a little in her favour, so let's have a very quick look at the FULL FORM tab for Clive Cox's filly. Here I've checked the 'distance' filter to check her record specifically at the Palace House trip of five furlongs.

Palace House Stakes: Priceless two from two at five furlongs

Palace House Stakes: Priceless two from two at five furlongs

 

We can see that she's two-from-two at five furlongs, and I can also share that those are her most recent two starts, both in Listed class. She steps up to Group 3 here with no worries about the ground (won on firm last time) and for a trainer who has an excellent record with sprinters (20.43% win rate over five furlongs in the last five years - see below).

Palace House Stakes: Clive Cox has an excellent record with 5f sprinters

Palace House Stakes: Clive Cox has an excellent record with 5f sprinters

 

All in all, PRICELESS looks a very interesting play in the Palace House Stakes at a general 8/1 as I write.

 

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4 replies
  1. Brendan says:

    Kirby seems to be riding the other Cox horse who’s unpenalised for group 1 win last yr he had the choice would that concerned you.

    Reply
    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Brendan

      No, Adam Kirby has ridden Profitable for its last five starts. I wouldn’t get off a G1 horse for a Listed animal… not until that one had shown it might be a G1 horse too!

      I’m not saying Profitable won’t win – he very well might – but I feel there might be a bit of value in taking a chance with the improving filly who is unbeaten at the trip.

      Best,
      Matt

      Reply
  2. wrightma says:

    Your explanation was quite interesting on the said race but would take quite a bit of time to reveal the days best bets, maybe when I retire.

    If after taking half an hour of studying your selection had won or been placed it may have me signing up but think I will stick to my regular source of six or so bets a month, it’s more expensive but there is no work to do and the results at the end of each season are pretty good.

    Good Luck

    Reply
    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi wrightma,

      Each to their own, of course. I thought Priceless ran a very good race, beaten a short head for 4th, and just over two and a half lengths overall. It’s always important for me to beat starting price – and even Betfair SP – so getting 8/1 when she went off 5/1 was another positive.

      Obviously, at the end of the day one has to convert enough of those bestings of the market into winners and, on this occasion, that didn’t happen. But I’m happy enough with the bet.

      One thing I would say is that the stalls positioning seemed to favour the high drawn horses, with the first three home drawn 12, 11, 14 of 15.

      Good luck,
      Matt

      Reply

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