Peterborough Chase Trends

Hen Knight goes for a 9th Peterborough Chase today

Hen Knight goes for a 9th Peterborough Chase today

The best race of Huntingdon's season, the Peterborough Chase, will unfold its story at 2pm this afternoon, and there is one obvious trend as well as a number of less apparent profile pointers, to help guide us towards the winner... I hope!

The obvious trend relates to a certain Henrietta Knight and her targeting of this contest. Since 1998, Hen has won this no less than EIGHT times with four different horses.

First, it was Edredon Bleu, who won a phenomenal four Peterborough Chases. Then Best Mate, the megastar of three Gold Cups, added his own Peterborough Chase. After a couple of quiet years (second in 2003, no runner in 2004), Hen was back in 2005, as Impek ruled the roost (geddit? Hen, roost... never mind!).

2006 and 2007 were the Racing Demon years, and that brought la Knight's record to a staggering eight wins in ten years. Crikey. Since then, there have been three barren years for the Knight stable (the only runner being Racing Demon, who was fifth in 2009), but now she's back with another top notcher in Somersby.

But wait. Surely there's more to the Peterborough Chase trends than that?! Well, yes, there is.

Twelve of the last fourteen winners finished in the first five last time (five won, six were 3rd to 5th).

Only one of the last fourteen winners was priced bigger than 6/1, with seven favourites, three second favourites, and three third favourites comprising that triskaidektet (almost certainly not a word, but I've welded the thirteen bit from triskaidekaphobia - fear of the number thirteen - with the group bit from septet - group of seven - to create a group of thirteen. Phew, it's hard going today, dear reader, is it not?!)

Horses aged six to nine won thirteen of the fourteen, but this includes almost all runners in the race each year, so isn't really helpful.

As the Peterborough Chase is a Grade 2, there are various penalties in place for winners of Class 3 or higher contests. It is perhaps not surprising then that horses who are not carrying the penalties (and therefore either not in form or not as good as their rivals) have performed poorly.

Specifically, those carrying 11-04 or less have won three of the last fourteen, from a group of 42 runners, and shown a fat loss to level stakes. Those carrying 11-05 or more are eleven from 44 runners in the last fourteen renewals and show a small profit to level stakes.

Interestingly, those with the top burden of 11-10 or 11-11 have won seven from 26 starters.

Eleven of the fourteen were either not rated in UK, or had an official mark of at least 155. The trio rated lower were rated between 145 and 147. Again, it might be instructive to note that four of the eight horses rated 166 or more won here.

Finally, six of the fourteen winners were running after a break of between a fortnight and a month, with another three coming off a layoff of between one and two months.

So, what does all that mean?

Well, it probably means we're looking for a fancied runner, rated 155+ (preference for those rated 166+), carrying 11-05 or more here, having had a break of between a fortnight and two months, and who ran in the first five last time.

And the winner is... erm, Somersby.

Hen Knight's horse ticks every box going, and looks a very solid favourite over a trip and on ground that are almost certainly optimal. My one reservation is that he does tend to find one or two too good. His record in chases is three from eleven. But he's been out of the first three only once in those eleven starts.

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The Nightingale also ticks the trends boxes, and looks likely to run well for the champion trainer, Paul Nicholls. And, despite running disappointingly last time in France, Tartak has course and distance form, and a touch of class on flat tracks like this.

Selection: Somersby

Next Best: The Nightingale

Each Way: Tartak

Click here for the latest Peterborough Chase betting.


Rare as hen's teeth: a genuine prize draw

Rare as hen (Knight)'s teeth: a genuine prize draw

Now, I'm pleased to report that after last night's mercy email, I have received enough entries for the prize draw to give out all four prizes! Phew!

And I can also tell you that those entries currently have a 33% chance of winning something!

I've been really surprised at some of the emails I've received, suggesting that it's either a con or too complicated. Actually, and I'm a little sensitive this week, but I've been mildly offended by the first suggestion. I couldn't have been more transparent if I'd announced it on video, naked, in front of a pane of glass. (Now that really is a nasty image to banish from the mind!)

So, for those who thought it was complicated, here are the rules again in full:

1. Go here, and choose an offer with a bookie you're not currently signed up with.
2. Sign up and place a bet, maybe on Somersby this afternoon (best odds currently with 888sport amongst others).
3. Email with your name and the name of the bookie, so I can check you off.
4. Er, that's it.

I really will be giving one lucky reader £250 on Monday. And, as you'll get a free bet when you register, if you were going to have a bet today (or any time between now and Monday) anyway, you might as well do it through a new book and get some gratis bunce to boot.

And I'll be giving three other readers six month memberships to my Winning Trainers service, which is over 120 points up since going live at the start of August.

Or am I just being conniving? NO, I'M NOT!! Strewth.

So, there it is. Hopefully the Peterborough Chase winner, and a pile of cash to be won on Monday. Be there or be square. 😉


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15 replies
  1. brian says:

    Hi Matt

    good strong stats – however have a sneaking suspicion somersby wont stay!!!

  2. Paul Ebrey says:

    Good analysis Matt, quite simply for me though Matt is this. Somersby is the only Grade 1 chase winner in the line-up and is clear on Racing Post Ratings by 2lbs from Gauvain.

  3. Eric says:

    I thought the hen joke was something to do with the “pek” in Impek. So you actually scored a double funny.

  4. david says:

    Hi Matt

    I’ll be having a go, cheers for the chance. I was surprised you were so polite in response to a couple of the comments left y’day. Well done!!

    ps: I can forgive the rant more than the roost joke!! 😉
    pps: I think it’s TRIODECAD

  5. Ian - SP2A Owner says:

    Excellent write up on the Peterborough – lets hope Somersby wins for a variety of reasons not in the least it will be a welcome tonic for Terry (Biddlecombe).

    What a shame though that this race is not on a Saturday like it used to be??? – another BHA cock-up imho.

    Re the Comp – keep the faith Matt – excellent idea and only a blinkered blind man would not see it for what it is – i.e totally genuine.

    Finally, to the fraternity who seem to have an account already with every bookie this side of Timbucktoo…..”think outside the box” – an alternative Debit/Credit Card and an alternative e-mail address to what you already have registered with any bookie- opens you a new account and gets you a chance of winning a nice £250 before Crimbo!

    • kevin says:

      If I remember rightly the ‘Peterborough’ was always run during the week, before being moved to a Saturday!

  6. Chris O'Bee says:

    Hi Matt,
    Anyone who believes the comp is “dodgy” should just leave it ! Somersby is a clear trends horse as also pointed out on Oddschecker. Gauvain was 8/1 with VC last night, Victor himself stated ” best fresh and trip a concern ” . They now go 11/2, what does Victor know 😉


  7. Mike says:

    How dare you offer a free prize draw? Absolute con! Seriously though, I opened an 888 account, got my free £10 and also won my bet on Basel (still didn’t make me feel any better about that result though as a Man U fan). Might even stick the free bet on Somersby then. Everybody wins (or at least they would if they didn’t look a gift horse in the mouth!!)

  8. Chris O'Bee says:

    Sorry, have to comment re suggestion you open a 2nd account with new debit/credit card + different email address. Not on, more helpful to try to find Bookies who are “partner friendly” and open an account that way !


  9. tony says:

    Excellent analysis Matt.If only.However I don´t think Somersby will stay.So for me it´s The nightingdale from Guavain and Tartack

  10. Craig says:

    Although I think Somersby is the likeliest winner, I would be wary of the trends because the race was run at the end of November until 2008 last year was run at Newbury. Such things can play havoc with trends. On balance, I think there are better 6/4 bets (although not necessarily today!).

    As for the prize draw, Matt is as straight as the proverbial die (or dice?)…. It’s ridiculous and scurrilous for anyone to suggest otherwise. I wasn’t intending to open any new bookie accounts but this offer was too tempting….free bet, free draw, excellent prizes.

    So, 888.Com took my £20 deposit and within 20 minutes I had doubled my money by backing a 12/1 shot e/w at Kempton which finished 2nd 🙂

    The horse was selected using Matt’s esteemed former colleague and friend Gavin Priestley’s all weather jockey stats. PDF…another superb resource proffered free of charge, with no catch, no con….. Some of you have such suspicious minds….. I, on the other hand, am quids in following the free money and the excellent horse racing resources of both Matt and Gavin over the past several YEARS…Crooks and conmen are in and out of the door as soon as they have scammed as many as they can get away with.

    Matt and Gavin and many other tipsters/trendsters/system sellers are honest, straightforward, decent and honourable chaps who love racing and are simply making an honest living from their services. Some simply aren’t much good at it rather than dishonest. Some are very good at it and are here for the long term as Matt has been and will be….And the only way to do that for as long as have been doing it, is through hard work, knowledge and good old fashioned honesty!


  11. Craig says:

    I meant to add that opening multiple accounts is against the T and C’s of most if not all bookies. It can get you into trouble. There are enough bookies out there willing to take your money for the vast majority of people to be able to open at least one new account….The trick is to deposit the cash and make sure they end up paying you for having the account, via the winners backed using the splendid advice and knowledge gleaned from quality people such as your genial Geegeez host! 😉

  12. Frank Connell says:

    Great read really enjoyed it, she is a fine trainer and a lovely person. Did well in race I luckily enough backed the winner. Once again thanks for a truly fantastic read.

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