Placepo pointers – Friday November 4

HEXHAM - NOVEMBER 4

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £31.70 (6 favourites - No winners - 5 placed - 1 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Hexham: 

Leg 1 (1.10): 15 (Kelka) & 13 (Quietly)

Leg 2 (1.45): 1 (Ryedale Racer), 4 (The Bay Oak) & 5 (Willie Boy)

Leg 3 (2.20): 4 (Smuggler’s Stash) & 6 (Dutch Canyon)

Leg 4 (2.55): 2 (Surprise Vendor) & 8 (Catchthemoonlight)

Leg 5 (3.30): 4 (Captain Sharpe), 2 (My Idea) & 1 (Mumgos Debut)

Leg 6 (4.00): 6 (Sultana Belle), 4 (Be Decided) & 5 (Toarmandowithlove)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.10: I don't usually start with owners but this has been a lucky course for Trevor Hemmings and his yellow and white quartered colours, having secured a 27% strike rate during the last five years.  Trevor has been one of the biggest English supporters of racing since I started following the sport over 50 years ago and every success is well deserved.  Trevor is represented by QUIETLY on this occasion, his only potential runner via 31 four day entries.  Malcolm Jefferson continues to have his runners in fine form (6/14 during the recent period) with KELKA one of two inmates declared at Hexham on Friday.  BRACKENMOSS RORY is awarded the overnight reserve nomination.

Favourite factor:  One of the two favourites to date has secured a Placepot position (at odds of 4/5) without winning its respective event.

1.45: All thirteen races have been secured by five/six/seven-year-olds, with the 'younger set' having claimed four of the last five renewals, coming into this year’s event on a four-timer.  RYEDALE RACER seems to be the pick of the trio of relevant vintage representatives, though plenty of respect is offered to WILLIE BOY down at the bottom of the list.  Venetia Williams must have been frustrated by the recent dry conditions throughout the land as her stock tend to run much better with plenty of juice in the ground. It’s worth noting that the stable has not been represented in a long while, whilst November has been a kind month for Venetia in recent years.  Boasting a profit to level stakes in each of the last four years in the penultimate month of the year, Venetia’s strike rate during the study period stands at 18%, with 51 points of profit gained.  The Skelton team can barely put a foot wrong at present whereby the declaration of THE BAY OAK catches the eye.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won eight of the last thirteen renewals during which time, eleven gold medallists were returned at a top price of 6/1.

Record of the course winner:

1/4--Ryedale Racer (heavy)

2.20: Six-year-olds have won 2/3 renewals to date, whilst last year’s lone vintage representative finished second.  All four relevant entries boast claims in one way or another, though marginal preference is for SMUGGLER’S STASH ahead of DUTCH CANYON.  SOLSTICE DAWN could outrun her price by sneaking into the frame.

Favourite factor: All three market leaders have claimed Placepot positions thus far, statistics which include two 9/4 winners.

Record of the course winner in third race:

1/4--Innis Shanon (heavy)

2.55: SURPRISE VENDOR is the first name on the team sheet in this contest, principally because of Stuart Coltherd’s fine (4/14) record at the venue this season.  Those stats have produced a dozen points of level stake profits into the bargain.  Quite how CATCHTHEMOONLIGHT remains a maiden on this her twentieth assignment is unknown, the eight-year-old having finished ‘in the three’ on eight occasions.

Favourite factor: Both (13/8 & 7/4) favourites have finished in the frame without winning their respective events to date.

Record of the course winners in the fourth event on the card:

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3/8—Surprise Vendor (2 x heavy + good)

1/3—Roll Of Thunder (good)

2/16—Mrs Grass (good to soft + soft)

3.30: Eight of the last nine winners have carried a maximum weight of 11-6, whilst eight-year-olds have won three of the last six contests when represented.  CAPTAIN SHARPE is the only runner possessing ticks in both boxes here, whilst respect is also paid to the chances of MUMGOS DEBUT and MY IDEA.  The latter named Maurice Barnes raider represents the leading yard at the track this season via 5/18 figures, boasting twelve points of level stake profit for good measure.

Favourite factor: Four of the last nine market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include one winner.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest:

1/12—Brother Scott (good)

4/16—Morning Time (2 x good & 2 x soft)

4.00: SULTANA BELLE will pop again one of these days and this could be the one, given that the Black Sam Bellamy raider has conditions in his favour, whilst running off a two pound lower mark that when last successful, which just happened to occur at this venue.  BE DECIDED and TOARMANDOWITHLOVE are the main threat from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: The three favourites have gained a medal of each colour when securing Placepot positions thus far.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/4--Forty Crown (good to soft)

2/7—Bescot Springs (2 x good)

2/4—Sultana Belle (2 x good)

1/9—Solway Sam (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Hexham card on Friday followed by this season’s stats at the track – profits/losses accrued to level stakes:

4 runners—Lucinda Russell (1/18 – loss of 13 points)

4—Sue Smith (0/8)

3—George Bewley (1/11 – loss of 3 points)

3—Barry Murtagh (0/7)

3—R Mike Smith (1/4 – Profit of 4 points)

2—Nick Alexander (0/4)

2—Maurice Barnes (5/18 – Profit of 12 points)

2—Barbara Butterworth (0/4)

2—Stuart Coltherd (4/14 – Profit of 12 points)

2—Lisa Harrison (1/11 – Profit of 1 points)

2—Henry Hogarth (0/1)

2—Malcolm Jefferson (3/15 – loss of 6 points)

2—Kenny Johnson (0/10)

2—Katie Scott (1/5 – loss of 1 point)

2—Alistair Whillans (3/8 (Profit of 16 points)

2—Venetia Williams (---)

+ 19 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

58 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Fontwell: £67.70 – 8 favourites 2 winners – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

Warwick: £50.00 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Newcastle: This is a new (A/W) meeting

 

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