It was a weird day yesterday atÂ Sandown. After my A selections had gone down on race 1, leaving me with a solitary B I was feeling deflated. I had marked this race down as a possible placepot 'boomer' - a race where there could be carnage leading to a healthy payoff later on.
As it turned out the 7/4 favourite won as he liked, and I had failed to include him anywhere on my tickets. Bugger.
Now, winning the placepot is about strategically avoiding those market leaders you believe to be poor value, and my strategy was correct. Alas, my execution left something to be desired!
In any case, I had the second placed horse, and went through on that basis. A 40/1 shot just mugged my lively outsider A horse for third, meaning I'd lost on four of my seven tickets before the second race! (see below).
But the beauty of this approach is that you can make a really bad 'rick' like that, and still come back from it, if subsequent results allow. Even though the favourite was placed in the second and third races, and two fancied runners hit the frame in the fourth, the last two races went as I suspected: against the grain.
In the fifth, I'd noted yesterday that all of the main protagonists had won last time out in races that simply were not working out. The horses they beat that day had subsequently gone on to do nothing. So it proved. Diverting was a ready winner, and she is massively on the upgrade, having doubled up previously at unfashionable Yarmouth. The third was an exposed 40/1 shot who had been running in decent races, and the second was the filly I liked, Golden Tempest (about whose last time out win I'd suggested was arguably the best form in the race), at 14/1.
And in the last race, I had argued that Fadhaa had the best form prospects. Again, he was second at 7/2, but his form figures going into the race (6029) would have put most punters off. So, despite being second favourite - just a sixth of a point behind the market leader - there was very little money on him in the pool. These horses are gold for placepot punters, as the casual player almost always overlooks them.
The upshot was that I had a single 10p line left, and as the placepot dividend returned Â£1,657.60 for a pound, I covered my stakes and returned 10% profit. Not massive of course, but after the first three favourites had made the frame - the first of them without my support - this was an escape of Houdini-esque proportions. The Betfair account image follows below (click on it for full size, i.e. actually visible!).
I'll be back later with my Thursday perm, and we're up to Ayr for some placepottery this afternoon. I'll also have a trainer angle similar to the hugely profitable one I presented at York a few weeks ago. Today's placepot at the bottom of this post...
Unsurprisingly for a feature meeting, it's tough today, and I've banked on one in the first. He hasn't run for four months, and is a twice raced juvenile. Hmm... The problem was I wanted to save bullets for later, and the form of both of his runs to date have worked out very well. Assuming there hasn't been a major problem in the interim, then he'll be hard to keep out of the frame. At least, I hope that's the case. The horse is called Farang Kondiew.
Leg 2, should I make it through, is a big field sprint handicap - not my forte at all. As such, I've gone wide and deep, including a lot of horses from either the 'right' stables (those of Messrs. Dods, Easterby T, Easterby M, Fahey and Smart), and/or those proven in class, trip and going. An even spread across A and B and I should get through here, if the first leg is not the proverbial 'early bath'. All subsequent legs will assume that as well!
The third is a trappy novice contest, where one more non-runner would mean 'win only' carnage. Whilst that's too much to hope for, I've covered four of the quintet and will save on the other if necessary (i.e. if the placepot is shaping up as though it's worth insuring so early).
Fourth race is the first division of a mile handicap, and a good race for my trainers to follow at Ayr. I've gone with five horses, spread across A and B lines, to give as much chance as possible of getting through.
The payback is less coverage than ideal in the last two races... starting with the fifth, where I've again sided with trainers, and going, class and distance form.
In the last leg, my trainers have a moderate race record so I've looked to those with track and trip form. That said, I have also included Richard Fahey's Las Verglas Star, who is consistent and has a strong chance of making the frame.
A bit of a scattergun approach today, and it all hinges on getting the jolly placed in the opener... fingers crossed!
So after a B list disaster with precisely NONE of the nine selected horses there registering a place, I managed to secure Â£1.20 on ticket 1, as the only paying ticket. That equated to Â£86.16 returned, and a loss on the day of Â£35.04.
It's been an unfortunate week in which to have a crack at this, but tomorrow is another day, and I'll be going 'hell for leather' across three cards!