MUSSELBURGH - AUGUST 31
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £36.00 (6 favourites - 4 winners - 1 placed - 1 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Musselburgh:
Leg 1 (1.30): 3 (Debawtry) & 4 (Me Before You)
Leg 2 (2.00): 10 (Ray Purchase), 1 (Burnieboozle) & 4 (Placebo Effect)
Leg 3 (2.30): 1 (Ventura Gold), 6 (Foxy Lady) & 4 (Claramara)
Leg 4 (3.00): 1 (Raselasad), 2 (The Stalking Moon) & 4 (Our Charlie Brown)
Leg 5 (3.30): 3 (Erinyes) & 5 (Bonnie Arlene)
Leg 6 (4.00): 2 (Peach Melba & 3 (Tirania)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.30: Anyone who is contemplating having a bet at Musselburgh today should look at the recent trainer stats down at the foot of the column. I’m not saying that you should not play but if doing so, keep stakes on the low side until gaining confidence from results. DEBAWTRY was withdrawn from a race at Carlisle on Tuesday, presumably on account of the yielding ground at the Cumbrian circuit. The weather forecast looks set fair for the Edinburgh region today whereby David O’Meara’s raider could (perhaps should) go one better after a half decent effort on her first day at school at Beverley two weeks ago. David’s Camacho filly should not be hard pressed to gain a Placepot position at the very least, with the owners appearing to have most to fear from stable companion ME BEFORE YOU. Any money (however unlikely) for SITSI might be worth following, albeit to minimum stakes. Bryan Smart enjoyed a fine record with his two-year-olds here at Musselburgh in days of old, his record in Edinburgh with juveniles being unmatched by any trainer at any track both sides of Hadrian’s Wall during a lengthy period of time.
Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings.
2.00: Although still available in a couple of places (very) early doors this morning, the trade press quote of 8/1 about RAY PURCHASE might be difficult to obtain when things liven up later today, should that be the case on a less than inspiring day of sport. BURNIEBOOZLE makes some appeal from the top of the handicap I guess, whilst beaten favourite PLACEBO EFFECT cannot be entirely ignored in this grade/company.
Favourite factor: Both favourites have prevailed thus far.
2.30: Although his strike rate is not great at present, Richard Fahey is, at least, saddling winners just now whereby the 10/1 (across the board) quote about VENTURA GOLD is a win and place shout to consider, albeit in limited terms. FOXY LADY and CLARAMARA are feared most.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous event on the card, whereby the same (brief) details apply.
Record of the course winner in the third race:
1/6—Kikini Bamalaam (good to firm)
3.00: A non-runner would put this event into a serious (win only) state of affairs and from a Placepot perspective, any prayers should be offered up immediately though that said of course, a decent dividend would surely be in the offing if we have to name the winner later today. You have an edge over yours truly obviously, with the rest of the morning to see how the race develops from a market viewpoint though at present, I am favouring RASELASAD, THE STALKING MOON and OUR CHARLIE BROWN though without a great deal of conviction.
Favourite factor: This is another new event on the Musselburgh card but judged on the lack of interest from trainers, there might be another new contest twelve months hence.
Record of the course winners in the fourth contest on the card:
1/2—The Stalking Moon (soft)
2/2—Our Charlie Brown (2 x good to firm)
3.30: Archie Watson has won with three of the last four runners he has saddled whereby the chance of ERINYES is greatly respected. Having contested a Listed event at ‘headquarters’ last time out, this race should be there for the taking on her handicap debut, though cheek-pieces rarely (if ever) inspire confidence from my perspective. Paddy Power stand alone at 4/1 about the chance of BONNIE ARLENE which looks something of a brave call given the Sandown victory on her penultimate start. That said, I guess the firm is looking at a disappointing effort the last day.
Favourite factor: The third new race on the card.
Record of the course winners in the fifth event:
1/4—Lively Fella (good)
2/8—Wor Lass (good & good to firm)
4.00: Stan James and Bet365 are swerving PEACH MELBA at the time of writing, only offering the projected market leader at even money when 6/5 is available on a few boards elsewhere. The differential might not seem worth noting, though the difference in percentage terms equates to a horse drifting to from 4/1 to 6/1. Mark Johnston’s Dream Ahead filly encounters fast ground here looking for a four-timer, whereby I’ve a feeling that the afore-mentioned companies will have to be a little braver to get the favourite into their books as the day pans out. TIRANIA would appear to be the danger on all known form, especially with William Haggas boasting a 42% strike rate in Edinbrugh these last five years (via eight winners), albeit his two raiders this term have returned home having been beaten.
Favourite factor: Only one of the three favourites has snared a Placepot position thus far, achieving that record when winning at odds of 13/8 two years ago.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Musselburgh card on Thursday – followed by their recent stats + profits/losses accrued:
9 runners—Keith Dalgleish (2/25 - since August 25)
5—Tim Easterby (1/13 - last 2 days)
4—Richard Fahey (4/22 - last 3 days)
4—Mark Johnston (1/21 - last 4 days)
3—Jim Goldie (2/16 – since August 24)
3—Richard Guest (last 19 runners beaten)
3—David O’Meara (6/32 – since August 26)
3—John Quinn (4/14 – since August 25)
3—Kevin Ryan (2/18 – since August 25)
2—Tony Coyle (2/53 during July & August)
2—Ann Duffield (1/10 – since August 23)
2—Dianne Sayer (0/19 this month)
2—Tracy Waggott (1/29 this month)
2—Noel Wilson (2/5 – last 2 days)
+ 15 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
62 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Bath: £73.10 – 9 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced
Sedgefield: £68.60 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced
Chelmsford: £50.20 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced
Wolverhampton: £100.20 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced