FAKENHAM--TUESDAY 7TH MAY
Last five toteplacepot returns at Fakenham:
April 1--£452.30 (four clear favourites secured toteplacepot posiitons)
March 15--£1,972.30 (one)
February 15--£1,152.20 (two)
January 1--£657.50 (two)
December 10--£484.00 (three)
Good consistent dividends averaging £943.66 of late.
Toteplacepot returns for the last five corresponding meetings:
2012--£913.00 (three clear favourites secured toteplacepot posiitons)
2008--£2.50 (all six)
2.30: PHEONIC FLIGHT was given a livener on the level recently which makes for interesting reading, whilst TALLEVU and course and distance winner WOM are others down the weights to consider against the more obvious front pair at the top of the list.
Trainer trends: No obvious trends in the opening event.
Vintage stats: Six of the last seven winners were aged six or more.
Weight information: Eight winners during the last decade carried 10-12 or less.
Favourite/SP facts: The last five market leaders have secured three gold and two silver medals, with the 9/4 second favourite scoring on one the other two occasions.
3.00: Although Jim Best's strike rate here at Fakenham fails to set the pulse racing, Jim does know how to place his horses to decent effect in this remote part of the country whereby BURNT AGAIN might prove to be the horse to beat. GET READY TO GO and FESTIVAL BOUND are others to consider.
Trainer trends: Neil King is the only represented trainer to have saddled two winners of late.
Vintage stats: No obvious trends in this event.
Weight information: Five of the last seven winners have carried weights of 10-13 or more.
Favourite/SP facts: Six of the thirteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the last eleven years, statistics which include four successful market leaders.
3.30: COWARDS CLOSE holds an obvious chance at the top of the weights for Paul Nicholls, though you should take a look at the trainer stats before plunging in too heavily. NO BUTS appears to be the alternative call, certainly as far as the official assessor is concerned.
Trainer trends: The positive Paul Nicholls stats of 4/18 at Fakenham during the last five years are slightly misleading as the trainer offers 0/4 ratio with his hurdlers during the period.
Vintage stats: Six-year-olds have won three of the last seven renewals with Cowards Close being the lone vintage representative on this occasion.
Weight information: The last three horses to have carried 11-5 have been beaten since Fantastic Champion successfully managed the task back in 2004.
Favourite/SP facts: Only one of the last six contests has fallen the way of the favourite, though five of the last eight market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.
4.00: Paul Nicholls (THEMILANHORSE) has saddled one beaten runner in this event since landing back to back victories in the contest in 2007/08.
Trainer trends: The Paul Nicholls stats relating to steeplechases at Fakenham (in contrast to the hurdle stats offered in the previous event) stand at 4/12 during the last five years.
Vintage stats: Seven-year-olds have won four of the last seven renewals and wouldn’t you just know it, Paul Nicholls saddles the only vintage representative in the field this time around.
Weight information: Four of the last five winners carried a maximum burden of 10-12 though that said, previous contests during the last decade offered reverse trends.
Favourite/SP facts: Four favourites have won during the last ten years, whilst eight winners scored at odds of 7/2 or less. The other two winners were sent off as 9/1 chances.
4.30: LITTLE LEGEND is a model of consistency 'between the flags' whilst CORAL POINT came good at the last time of asking, though not under NH rules.
Trainer trends: Nothing of note given that the trainer of six winners during the last decade is not represented.
Vintage stats: Eight of the last ten winners were aged ten or more which is the general rule of thumb in these Hunter Chase events.
Weight information: Rarely a factor in this type of event.
Favourite/SP facts: Six market leaders have won during the last decade, whilst all ten winners scored at odds of 11/2 or less.
5.00: Three of the last seven horses that Nicky Henderson had saddled before Bank Holiday Monday's sport was contested had won and whatever the fate of Full Shift (5.25 Ffos Las), Nicky's beaten favourite CEVARO will be a popular order here. BRUNTON BLUE might offer most resistance at the business end of the contest.
Trainer trends: The last two horses saddled by Sarah-Jayne Davies have won at 25/1 & 15/2. Sarah saddled one runner on Monday (2.20 Ffos Las) after this analysis was compiled.
Vintage stats: Eight-year-olds possess the best vintage record during the last decade, though only via three winners.
Weight information: A mix of results in recent times in all honesty.
Favourite/SP facts: The last six winners have scored at a top price of 8/1, statistics which include two successful favourites. Three of the four beaten favourites during the period secured silver medals. Five of the last six market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.
Mal's toteplacepot permutation:
2.30: A 4-5
3.00: A 2-4 B 3
3.30: A 3-1
4.00: A 2 B 1-4
4.30: A 1 B 2
5.00: A 1-6
= 144 lines.
Readers can use the ticket builder at www.geegeez.co.uk/ppot/ to create their own part perms. For instance, creating the A's and B's suggested in the perm.
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