Geegeez Placepot

Placepot Picks: Goodwood 4th May 2013

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GOODWOOD--SATURDAY 4TH MAY

Last five toteplacepot returns at Goodwood:

October 14--£139.20 (four clear favourites secured toteplacepot positions)

September 26--£8.20 (five)

September 4--£20.30 (three)

August 26--£523.50 (two)

August 25--£184.20 (four)

Toteplacepot returns for the last five corresponding meetings:

2012--£2,273.60 (two clear favourites secured toteplacepot posiitons)

2011--£32.80 (five)

2010--£53.40 (four)

2009--£416.80 (three)

2008--£307.40 (three)

Additional Goodwood factor: Fourteen of the first twenty eight favourites (of one description or another) won at Goodwood last year.  Twenty four of the winners scored at odds of 9/1 or less. Successful trainers at last year's corresponding meeting: Elaine Burke (20/1), Ron Harris (14/1), Peter Hedger (9/2*), Robert Cowell (7/2), Brian Ellison (3/1*) and Sir Henry Cecil (4/9*). In case you are wondering, Peter Hedger's 9/2 favourite won the seventh (non Placepot) race on the card, whilst the other winner was saddled by John Dunlop (3/1) who has now retired.

 

1.50: LARSEN BAY did little wrong when chasing home a Mick Channon raider on his debut, given that Mick has targeted that relevant race down the years to good effect.  Richard Hannon saddles his Mastercraftman newcomer EXPERT and having saddled half of his ten winners at the venue via his juvenile raiders at the track last year, Richard will be hoping that his March foal will get the Goodwood season off to a flying start.

Trainer trends: Although Richard Hannon has saddle gold and silver medallists within the last three years, Richard has been responsible for two beaten favourites during the period.

Vintage stats: This is a two-year-old event

Weight information: Not applicable

Favourite/SP facts: Two of the four favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include one (even money) successful market leader.  The other three winners scored at 25/1-14/1-14/1.

 

2.20: The official figures suggest that COQUET, JEHANNEDARC and KHIONE are best treated by the terms and conditions of this event.  Course winner COQUET and the Dalakhani filly KHIONE represent in from trainers Hughie Morrison and Luca Cumani which suggests that at least one of this pair will finish in the 'short field' frame.  New readers might want to know the term (short field) used by yours truly, which refers to a five/six/seven runner races in which only the first and second horses home ‘qualify’ from a toteplacepot/each way perspective.

Trainer trends: Michael Bell (Bite Of The Cherry) is the only trainer to have secured a toteplacepot position in the contest thus far.

Vintage stats: Only four and five-year-olds (covers all the relevant runners this time around) have finished in the frame to date.

Weight information: Not applicable

Favourite/SP facts: The two favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via gold and silver medallists.

 

2.55: Clive Cox (ACCESSION) and Richard Hannon (SHAMAAL NIBRAS & DEMOCRETES) head the strike rates via the represented trainers during the last fortnight and this trio should give us a decent run for our collective toteplacepot permutations. If the two trainers are to be denied this time around, Henry Candy (represented by course and distance winner THE CONFESSOR) might prove to be the culprit.

Relevant information:  This is a new race on the Goodwood card.

 

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3.30: I am a little surprised that just three four-year-olds have been declared for the race given the vintage stats which make for interesting reading.  DUKE OF FIRENZE, TOP COP and KYLEAKIN LASS are the three relevant raiders and this trio should secure at least one toteplacepot position between them.

Trainer trends: None of the nine represented trainers have won this event during the study period.

Vintage stats: Four-year-olds have won four of the seven renewals (12/1-8/1-15/2-9/2*), whilst vintage representatives have secured nine of the nineteen available each way/toteplacepot positions.  The ratio is all the more impressive given that four-year-olds accounted for just 35.8% of the total number of runners (23/64) during the period.

Weight information: Five of the last six winners have been burdened with a minimum weight of 8-13.

Favourite/SP facts: Six renewals have slipped by without a successful market leader being recorded since the inaugural favourite won at 9/2 back in 2006.  Four of the seven favourites have finished in the frame (exact science).

 

4.05: Making Eyes would have preferred softer ground whereby I prefer the chances of (race fit) STIRRING BALLAD and HIPPY HIPPY SHAKE, especially as the respective trainers of the latter named pair (Andrew Balding and Luca Cumani) have saddled plenty of winners this spring.  Official figures suggest that WHIMSICAL will struggle in this grade/company, though as the Strategic Prince filly has secured toteplacepot position in five of her last six starts (stats include two victories), I am not ruling the Richard Hannon raider out of the equation completely.  It's worth noting that Strategic Prince won his only assignment at Goodwood in Group 2 company.

Trainer trends: No obvious trends have emerged during last decade.

Vintage stats: Four-year-olds have won five of the last six renewals with vintage representatives coming to the gig on a five timer on this occasion.

Weight information: This year's 'make up' of runners merely conforms to the weight trends in recent years.

Favourite/SP facts: One clear and two joint favourites have won during the last decade during which time, six winners have been returned at odds of 6/1 or less.  The other winners scored at 20/1-14/1-10/1-10/1.  Eight of the last nine market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

 

4.40: Local trainers Amanda Perrett and Gary Moore saddle the two newcomers in the race though that said, those horses might have to be something out of the ordinary to keep the likes of GRAND DENIAL and FIRMDECISIONS out of the frame.  The pair is listed in order of preference.

Trainer trends: Mick Channon (Bee Jay Kay) is the only represented trainer to have won this race in the past.

Vintage stats: This is a race confined to three-year-olds.

Weight information: Not applicable

Favourite/SP facts: We still await the first successful market leader following four renewals.  Winners have scored at 16/1-7/1-6/1-3/1, whilst just one favourite has secured a toteplacepot position to date.

 

Mal's toteplacepot permutation:

1.50 A 3-2

2.20 A 5-3

2.55 A 2-9-11

3.30 A 4-7-3

4.05 A 3-6   B 7

4.40 A 4  B 3

= 216 lines.

Readers can use the ticket builder at www.geegeez.co.uk/ppot/ to create their own part perms. For instance, creating the A's and B's suggested in the perm.

Place your toteplacepot bets with totepool directly, using the link below:

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