HAYDOCK--SATURDAY 11TH MAY
Last five toteplacepot returns at Haydock:
April 27 (Flat)--£237.40 (three clear favourites secured toteplacepot posiitons)
March 30 (NH)--£305.00 (three)
March 20 (NH)--£2,420.80 (one)
February 16 (NH)--£57.10 (four)
December 22 (NH)--£201.50 (four)
Toteplacepot returns for the last five corresponding meetings:
2012--£263.80 (three clear favourites secured toteplacepot posiitons)
1.50: Taking the stats and facts in to account which are listed below, my overnight short list consists of PATEESE, DARLEY SUN, MIDNIGHT APPEAL and BATTLE GROUP.
Trainer trends: Philip Hobbs has won two of the last five renewals of this opening event and the trainer has declared PATEESE here, who was the third placed horse twelve months ago at odds of 14/1.
Vintage stats: Seven and eight-year-olds have (equally) shared the last four renewals.
Weight information: Six of the eight winners have carried a maximum weight of eleven stones.
Favourite/SP facts: We still await the first successful market leader following eight renewals, whilst five winners have been returned in double figures, ranging in odds between 10/1 & 33/1. Six of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.
2.25: The winning debut form of HANSEATIC (when beating the highly progressive Rockalong) stands out from the crowd. Fellow four-year-olds (take a look at the vintage stats) MUHARRER and course and distance winner NOW MY SUN are feared most.
Trainer trends: John Gosden runners are in better form now than they were when beaten favourite HANSEATIC suffered his first defeat.
Vintage stats: Four-year-olds have won four of the seven contests.
Weight information: Three of the last four winners have been burdened with a minimum weight of 9-1.
Favourite/SP facts: Two favourites (winners of their respective events at odds of 9/4 & 8/11) have claimed toteplacepot positions via seven renewals.
3.00: Official figures suggest that BOOMERANG BOB and course and distance winner ROYAL ROCK should lead the others home, until you look at the trainer stats which might just find you hitting the pause button when about to place your bet.
Trainer trends: Charlie Hills (MEZMAAR) and Ed Dunlop (BURWAAZ) boasted aggregate stats of 10/59 during the last fortnight at the time of writing, figures which compare favourably to the 2/51 ratio via the other four handlers.
Vintage stats: Last year's winner Our Jonathan was the fourth five-year-old to win during the last decade.
Weight information: The last winner to carry more than nine stones to victory was Steenberg back in 2004. That said, only four subsequent runners have tried and failed!
Favourite/SP facts: Three favourites have won via the last seven contests, whilst the last eleven winners were returned at odds of 8/1 or less. Five of the last eight favourites have finished in the frame (exact science).
3.30: Nicky Henderson's pair (see trainer trends) are worthy a secondary glance, whilst the weight/vintage stats also point us in the direction of MR MOLE and TURN OVER SIVOLA.
Trainer trends: Nicky Henderson comes into the race having won two of the last three contests (Nicky had CAPE EXPRESS and FORGOTTEN VOICE involved at the five day stage--both horses have been declared).
Vintage stats: Five-year-olds have won five of the last ten contests, though six and seven-year-olds have shared the last five renewals.
Weight information: Eight of the last ten winners have carried a maximum burden of eleven stones.
Favourite/SP facts: Three favourites have scored during the last eleven years. Five market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the last decade.
4.05: The terms and conditions of this event suggest that the lone three-year-old raider EMELL will not be far away, whilst GREGORIAN and course and distance winner SET THE TREND are short listed. If plenty of rain falls between now and flag fall, Pintura could not be entirely ruled out of the mix.
Trainer trends: Richard Hannon (EMELL) had saddled no less than seventy five runners during the last fortnight before Friday's sport was contested, with twenty two winners emerging during the period.
Vintage stats: Five-year-olds lead the six-year-olds 4-3 during the last decade.
Weight information: Vintage differentials dictate any weight advantages in this Listed event.
Favourite/SP facts: Nine of the last ten winners have scored at 9/1 or less though that said, just one (2/7) favourite has prevailed.
4.40: Harry Fry has taken the NH code by storm and with Harry having saddled three of his last five runners to winning effect (silver and bronze medallists notwithstanding during the period), the declaration of KING OF THE NIGHT catches the eye. Warren Greatrex is another trainer to have saddled winners of late whereby the chance of DOLATULO is respected, with course winners CONQUISTO and DARE ME also added to the mix.
Relevant information: This is a new race on the Haydock card.
Mal's toteplacepot permutation:
1.50: A 12-16 B 13
2.25: A 2 B 5
3.00: A 2-6
3.30: A 8-2 B 11
4.05: A 2-7
4.40: A 5-8-12
= 216 lines.
Readers can use the ticket builder at www.geegeez.co.uk/ppot/ to create their own part perms. For instance, creating the A's and B's suggested in the perm.
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