REDCAR--THURSDAY MAY 2
Last five toteplacepot returns at Redcar:
April 15--£117.70 (four clear favourites secured toteplacepot posiitons)
April 1--£58.70 (three)
November 6--£242.20 (three)
October 29--£110.70 (two)
October 6--£119.10 (three)
Toteplacepot returns for the last five corresponding meetings:
2012--£87.00 (two clear favourites secured toteplacepot posiitons)
2.00: Beaten favourite PRINCESS PHEENY ran well enough on debut to suggest that a small race is very much on the cards for the Tagula filly and Richard Fahey seems to have found the perfect opportunity for his February foal to score at the second time of asking. David O'Meara's Kheleyf colt INNOCENTLY is David's first juvenile runner of the season though with David saddling just six two-year-old winners last term (10% strike rate), INNOCENTLY is not expected to give experience away to winning effect here, albeit the March foal will be doing his best to add to David's Redcar total of two juvenile scorers during the last five years (9% success rate).
Trainer trends: Although Richard Fahey has not saddled a winner during the study period, Richard saddled the runner up (16/1 and 6/1) in two of the last three renewals in which the trainer was represented.
Vintage stats: This is a two-year-old event
Weight information: Not applicable
Favourite/SP facts: Eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via nine renewals during the last decade, statistics which include four successful market leaders, three of which started as long odds on favourites. Four of the last six winners have scored at 20/1-20/1-16/1-16/1.
2.30: CAPTAIN ROYALE represents Tracy Waggott who has her horses in fine form just now (see stats below), though the terms and conditions of this selling event appear to favour DORBACK (David Nicholls saddled last year's winner) and CHLOE'S DREAM. The reserve nomination is awarded to course and distance winner Haajes.
Trainer trends: Six of the last seventeen runners saddled by Tracy Waggott have won.
Vintage stats: Eighteen horses aged 3/4/5 have contested this event to date without success.
Weight information: All five winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-7.
Favourite/SP facts: Three of the six market leaders (via five contests) have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include just one successful 2/1 (joint) favourite.
3.00: With seven of his last twelve runners having won (58.3% strike rate), Williams Haggas has his team in tremendous form and it's worth noting that CARA GINA is William's only runner on Thursday. MAGIC ICE has a realistic chance of finishing 'in the three' for the fifth time in her last six starts.
Trainer trends: Eric Alston is invariably a trainer to look out for at this time of year when Chester is set to stage their summer meetings. Two of Eric's last eight runners have won at 16/1 and 10/1, with four others securing toteplacepot positions (12/1-11/1-9/1-9/2) during the study period.
Vintage stats: Three-year-olds have won seven of the eight renewals during the last decade, albeit via 71.6% of the total number of runners. The three-year-old winners included one at 40/1 whilst a 100/1 chance prevented the junior raiders from securing a 'clean sweep' back in 2005.
Weight information: All eight winners have carried a maximum weight of nine stones, which is in general keeping when three-year-olds dominate all aged maiden contests.
Favourite/SP facts: Successful favourites have been conspicuous only by their absence during the eight year study period, whilst four market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science). Two of the beaten market leaders were sent off as odds on chances at 2/11 & 8/11.
3.30: DIMAN WATERS possesses ticks in a few boxes which will become apparent as you read this column, whilst MY SINGLE MALT and FLYNN'S BOY are other win and place options to consider.
Trainer trends: Eric Alston is also represented in this race (see Eric’s recent stats in the 3.00 analysis), whilst it's worth noting that his raider (Diman Waters) is one of only two horses who fit the (brief) vintage trends in the contest.
Vintage stats: Four-year-olds have secured four of the nine available toteplacepot positions via three renewals, statistics which include two (17/2 & 9/2) winners.
Weight information: All three winners have carried 9-2 or less thus far, as have five of the nine horses to have secured toteplacepot positions.
Favourite/SP facts: Two of the three market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include one 5/2 gold medallist.
4.00: Although Beckermet is knocking on now (celebrates his eleventh birthday on Friday), Ruth Carr's gelding demands respect in this grade/company, albeit the in form David Nicholls raider HAMOODY will be a tough nut to crack in all probability. A winner of four of his last seven races and beaten in photo finishes in two of the other contests, HAMOODY has a better strike rate away from turf though that said, four victories have been gained on grass down the years, all of them under fast conditions.
Trainer trends: David Nicholls is well known for raiding Claiming events to winning effect and 'Dandy' is the only trainer to have won this race twice during the study period.
Vintage stats: As is the case in a great number of claiming contests, vintage trends fail to offer many clues.
Weight information: Five of the last seven winners were burdened with a minimum weight of 9-5.
Favourite/SP facts: Four of the last five market leaders have prevailed, whilst eight of the ten favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the last decade.
4.30: CORN SNOW, MIXED MESSAGE and CHANT should land the dividend for us between them if we are live going into the toteplacepot finale.
Trainer trends: Mark Johnston has been involved in three of the five renewals to date, snaring gold and bronze medals in the process. Mark (Corn Snow) is the only represented trainer to have saddled the winner of this race during the study period.
Vintage stats: This is a three-year-old handicap.
Weight information: The last four winners have carried 9-1 or more, as have six of the twelve horses to have finished in the frame via all five contests.
Favourite/SP facts: Four of the five favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three of the last four winners (13/8-6/4-11/8).
Mal's toteplacepot permutation:
2.10 A 7
2.45 A 2-9
3.20 A 9-10 B 6
3.55 A 9-10 B 7
4.30 A 2-3
5.05 A 1-3-6
= 108 lines.
Readers can use the ticket builder at www.geegeez.co.uk/ppot/ to create their own part perms. For instance, creating the A's and B's suggested in the perm.
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