Towcester Preview/ Placepot Picks, 21st May 2013
Despite nominating the first SEVEN of eighteen home (from eight picks) in leg one yesterday; and the exacta in legs two and three; we couldn't catch a break with the dragnet strategy and ultimately went out on the very heavily backed My Son Harry (4/1 into 2/1 fav) in the last.
There was solace in the fact that the dividend was a miserly £13.30 for a £1 stake, and that's no good to us prize hunters.
I'm sticking with the jumps and a very interesting looking card at Towcester tonight, where the early bath is a possibility...
Leg 1: 5.35 - Fourteen runners for this maiden hurdle, but eight of them look to have little to no chance. Of the remaining six, Garryleigh was well backed yesterday before being withdrawn, so it's safe to assume he's ready to run a big race. With Union de Chenet having to prove he'll run on this quicker surface, the main danger is likely to be Twelve Roses, second over a shorter trip here in a weaker race last time.
Garryleigh banker, please.
A - 4 (Garryleigh)
Leg 2: 6.05 - A seven runner 0-100 handicap chase, and - as always with seven runner races - there's the prospect of a good 'pot result.
Moscow Mule and Crack At Dawn look interesting, the former returning to winning ways last time (and supported to do so) and the latter reverting to chasing at a track he likes (33137 round here).
There's been buckets of money for In The Haven on his first UK start. Most of his best form has been on a sound surface and he's interesting. A more obvious contender is Kayfton Pete, despite being a maiden from eight chase starts.
Robin Dickin has only had five winners from his last 100 runners, and four of those were 3/1 or shorter. He has had a couple of seconds recently, including with Tom O'Tara, who runs here, but I've got to swerve him currently.
Orang Outan seems to need softer ground to show his best, and might also want further, which leaves Share Option. He is unexposed over fences (six runs) and was last seen in Class 3 and 4 chases last year. This is a drop in class, and he's got a workable weight. Interesting in a fiendish puzzle of a race.
A - 1 (Kayfton Pete), 5 (Moscow Mule), 6 (Crack At Dawn)
B - 2 (In The Haven), 4 (Share Option)
Leg 3: 6.35 - The key to Marodima is field size. He's won 16 of his 17 races in fields of nine or less (the other was eleven). In bigger fields, he's won that one race from nineteen starts. There's very little pace in this race so, for a horse which must lead, Marodima seems to have everything in his favour. He's two from two here - wide margin winner both times - and he's a banker.
A - 1 (Marodima)
Leg 4: 7.05 - A staying handicap chase where the form of the field has more P's than Captain Bird's Eye and a plethora of popped pods! Those best suited by conditions may be Rebel Swing, Red Rouble and Rossbrin: some R's to go with the P's...
Favourite, Smooth Classic, has found it hard to win but has had less goes than most and is consistently thereabouts. Three miles and decent ground could be the key to him.
A - 2 (Smooth Classic), 8 (Rebel Swing)
B - 3 (Red Rouble), 6 (Rossbrin)
Leg 5: 7.35 - A lop-sided handicap which revolves around the McCoy-ridden Prince Pippin. He's respected but, in this big field - an element which hasn't always suited - and with the trip at the extent of his capacity, I'll be taking some options alongside.
Diamond's Return ran like he might have a problem last time, and I'll avoid him. Guard's Chapel on the other hand could be returning to form despite also being disappointing last time. He at least has decent recent flat form, and is worth another try.
Around A Pound and Dashing Doc also interest me mildly, as does Bob Lewis.
A - 7 (Dashing Doc), 9 (Prince Pippin)
B - 3 (Guards Chapel), 6 (Around A Pound), 15 (Bob Lewis)
Leg 6: 8.05 - And we close with a novices' chase which might not be as straightforward as it seems. Leading fancies, The Musical Guy (tame finisher) and Thanks For Coming (pulled up last time, unseated time before), have the best form but could be overrun. They'll go on A, and I'll take a couple on B too.
My lively others are Regal Presence and Accordion Exhibit, both of whom are open to improvement for the switch to fences and the better ground.
A - 6 (Thanks For Coming), 7 (The Musical Guy)
B - 1 (Accordion Exhibit), 4 (Regal Presence)
That leaves us with perms looking like this:
Just A's - 1 x 3 x 1 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 24 bets
All picks - 1 x 5 x 1 x 4 x 5 x 4 = 400 bets
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