WARWICK--MONDAY 6TH MAY
Last five (flat) toteplacepot returns at Warwick:
April 1--£181.90 (two clear favourites secured toteplacepot posiitons)
October 4--£141.90 (three)
August 27--£58.20 (four)
August 21--£34.80 (three)
June 28--£3,313.40 (one)
Toteplacepot returns for the last five corresponding meetings:
2011--£6.50 (four clear favourites secured toteplacepot posiitons)
2.05: It is not rocket science to suggest that is the worst Bank Holiday of the year in terms of the quality of racing, and this opening event represents the perfect example! The vintage stats help us out in this first event however, whereby DUKE OF DESTINY, BANG TIDY and LORD FRANKLIN are the four-year-olds that attract my attention at the time writing.
Trainer trends: There are no obvious trainer trends in the opening event
Vintage stats: Four-year-olds have won four of the six renewals to date, whilst securing ten of the twenty available toteplacepot positions in the process.
Weight information: All six winners were burdened with a maximum weight of nine stones. Lord Franklin is the only horse in the line up with ticks in the two most important boxes and with trainer Eric Alston invariably having his horses ‘tuned to the minute’ during ‘Chester week’. Lord Franklin is a live contender from my viewpoint.
Favourite/SP facts: Four of the six favourites have finished out of the frame to date in this apprentice handicap, though market leaders come to the gig on a hat trick this time around following recent successes at 3/1 and 5/2.
2.35: William Haggas boasts a 25% ratio at Warwick via his juveniles with four winners saddled during the course of the last five years. PRINCESS ROSE is the stable representative on this occasion and it's worth noting that the Royal Applause filly holds a couple of fancy entries for later on in the year. Half of Richard Hannon's ten winners at Warwick during the study period have hailed from his juvenile raiders whereby A CHILDS DREAM had to be included in the overnight mix. Clive Brittain's record of 0/14 in the two-year-old sector at Warwick in recent times does nothing for confidence though his Dalakhani newcomer SLEEPING PRINCESS has at least been offered a realistic target.
Relevant information: This is a new race on the Warwick card.
3.05: Chris Dwyer is another trainer who is 'bubbling under' below the radar having saddled to his last seven runners to winning effect. Chris has hired the services of the progressive Robert Tart and Robert’s five pound claim definitely brings BALATINA into the equation. FIDGET and BATCHWORTH LADY are offered up as the main dangers.
Relevant information: This is another new race on the Warwick programme.
3.40: Four-year-olds have claimed fifteen of the twenty one available toteplacepot positions to date (including four gold medallists) and the vintage should be represented to half decent effect by 'recent' winners MAGGIE PINK and DUTCH MISTRESS. Three months and more have passed since the latter named raider scored at Wolverhampton but the Dutch Art filly won in the style of a progressive type and it would come as no surprise if James Unett's representative ran well. WHATEVER YOU DO and (possibly) JACOBELLA can lead the junior runners home.
Trainer trends: Richard Hannon aside (Whatever You Do), the aggregate stats of the other represented trainers stand at 6/82 at the time of writing whereby confidence relating to the result of this event is not at an all time high!
Vintage stats: Three-year-olds have won the other three contests (see main analysis) to date.
Weight information: Weight differentials in this type of event are only 'conspicuous' by the different ages of the horses involved, as opposed to a handicap where definite trends invariably emerge.
Favourite/SP facts: Six of the eight market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions via seven renewals to date. Four clear market leaders have won alongside a joint favourite, whilst ‘jollies’ come to gig on a five timer on this occasion.
4.10: Having saddled three of his last nine runners to victory (before Sunday's sport was contested), Luca Cumani's team are coming together a little earlier than usual and PLEASURE BENT is an interesting horse to consider in a difficult event to assess. As green as grass at the first time of asking, Luca's Dansili colt ran well enough when allowed to drift in the market at Newmarket in September and I am expecting a much better showing this time around. Others for the mix to consider over your late night tipple/early morning beverage include stable companion VELOX and PARIS ROSE.
Relevant information: This is yet another new race on the Warwick card.
4.40: Frank Sheridon's raider GREEN SPECIAL has yet to race on turf, though his five efforts on all weather surfaces demand a second glance, especially as Frank had saddled two of his last five runners to winning effect at the time of writing. David Brown (3/8) is another trainer whose yard is going well just now whereby ORDER OF SERVICE is given a chance alongside KOHLANN.
Relevant information: Last year’s inaugural 5/6 favourite duly obliged.
Mal's toteplacepot permutation:
2.05: A 1-5-11
2.35: A 1-6
3.05: A 5-7 B 6
4.10: A 1-3 B 7
4.40: A 8-15
5.10: A 4-6
= 216 lines.
Readers can use the ticket builder at www.geegeez.co.uk/ppot/ to create their own part perms. For instance, creating the A's and B's suggested in the perm.
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