Worcester Preview/ Placepot Picks, 22nd May 2013
Problems with my bankers again yesterday, and my sole win single bet of the night - Marodima - was given a plain stupid ride. Under no pace pressure for the lead, his jockey, Tom O'Brien, decided to charge 25 lengths clear on him. Unsurprisingly, he was knackered at the end. Honestly, if I owned that horse I'd be looking for another rider now.
I'm still sticking with the jumps and off to Worcester we go tonight, where I don't think the dividend will be high, but I do think we can play it for value by keeping the perm lean and mean 🙂
Leg 1: 5.50 - A hunter chase kicks us off, and it looks a weak one at that. Near The Water and Stone are interesting at prices, but I'm going double-handed with Ice Cool Benny and Quatuor Collonges, with slight preference for the former.
A - 1 (Ice Cool Benny), 6 (Quatuor Collonges)
Leg 2: 6.20 - Italian Master is an obvious contender for blue chip connections, but this son of Milan may not enjoy the quick ground here. Proven on fast turf and a winner two starts back is the 128-rated Dance Tempo and, having not learned my lesson from yesterday, he's a banker for the in-form Kim Bailey yard.
A - 3 (Dance Tempo)
Leg 3: 6.50 - Competitive. Cross Of Honour might be ready for this third start after a short break, and will relish the grade and trip. Favourite Dineur ought to go close IF his stamina holds out. He loves fast ground and has a handy weight, but all his winning is at shorter. Midnight Tuesday, a distance winner at this track over hurdles this time last year, has been supported to go well.
And Hell's Bay must surely show something here if he's even a shadow of his former self. His jumping remains a worry, mind.
A - 2 (Cross Of Honour), 10 (Dineur)
B - 5 (Hell's Bay), 8 (Midnight Tuesday)
Leg 4: 7.20 - Ostensibly an awful race, and the favourite, Irish Cavalier, is a shade of odds on. But his first run wasn't brilliant for a stable which gets them ready, and I'm taking one with him, just in case. That one is Fergal O'Brien's Tenor de Guerre. That yard is flying right now, and he'd have to be only average to challenge for honours here.
A - 4 (Tenor de Guerre), 7 (Irish Cavalier)
Leg 5: 7.50 - Deep Trouble is unopposable in placepot terms, and I'm not going to oppose him!
A - 2 (Deep Trouble)
Leg 6: 8.20 - I'm The Article won last time despite jumping frailties, and an improvement on that score will see him defy his penalty and show these the way home. A couple, Sandanski and Willoughby Hedge notably, but also Brians Well, look nice types, but I'm siding with Harry Fry's nag.
A - 1 (I'm The Article)
That leaves us with straightforward perms looking like this:
Just A's - 2 x 1 x 2 x 2 x 1 x 1 = 8 bets
All picks - 2 x 1 x 4 x 2 x 1 x 1 = 16 bets
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