WINDSOR – APRIL 16
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £88.00 (6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:
Race 1: 35.0% units went through – 5/1 – 5/1 – 9/1 (85/40)
Race 2: 35.8% of the remaining units when through – 12/1 – 5/2 – 11/2 (2/1)
Race 3: 44.5% of the remaining units went through – 8/1 – 8/1- 16/1 – 7/1 (9/2)
Race 4: 66.7% of the remaining units went through – Evens* & 7/1
Race 5: 51.4% of the remaining units went through – 17/2 – 8/1 – 4/1 (15/8)
Race 6: 43.3% of the units secured the dividend – 7/2* - 10/1 – 16/1
Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor:
Leg 1 (2.20): 4 (Give Em A Clump), 5 (Mother Of Dragons) & 1 (Maygold)
Leg 2 (2.50): 1 (Artair), 3 (Blown By Wind) & 7 (Solesmes)
Leg 3 (3.20): 7 (Sevenna Star) & 1 (King’s Proctor)
Leg 4 (3.50): 2 (Fast And Hot), 5 (Menchego) & 6 (Essenaitch)
Leg 5 (4.20): 1 (Blaine), 2 (Mobsta) & 11 (Poet’s Princess)
Leg 6 (4.50): 5 (Icart Point) & 9 (Polly’s Gold)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
2.20: GIVE EM A CLUMP (ran in the next race on the card last year) undertakes his first assignment since having endured a gelding operation and coupled with the fact that he boasts a 1/1 record on heavy ground thus far, I’m offering the David Evans raider the tentative vote in the first race on the card, hoping that the meeting passes its 7.00 am inspection. MOTHER OF DRAGONS has run well on soft ground in much better company than she competes against here, whist MAYGOLD completes my trio against the field in this ‘dead eight’ contest.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/1 favourite finished out of the frame in the last (non Placepot) race on the card.
2.50: Whatever jungle drums are beating this morning appear to be coming from the ARTAIR reservation and the Racing Post comment about Michael Bell’s Kodiac colt also holding an engagement at Newmarket this week was an accurate one until the final declarations for Tuesday were confirmed. BLOWN BY WIND has also attracted some realistic money in the positive exchange queue overnight whilst SOLESMES hails from Mick Channon’s yard who leads the way relating to juvenile runners on turf this season (2/2) thanks to his talented ‘Brocklesby’ winner Izzer.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 15/8 favourite found one rival a short head too good for him in a short field event. Last year’s 85/40 market leader is still being sought by detective having failed to figure in the finish. New readers might like to learn that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify.
3.20: John Gosden was going well enough of late without posting a 25/1 winner at Lingfield on Saturday which I included in my trainers list to follow, though most eyes were fixed on Aintree of course. John saddles SEVENNA STAR with an obvious chance, though stakes should be kept on the low side if the meeting takes place. My (negative) worry about the meeting is that Windsor have endured all kinds of problems in recent years with horses losing their balance around the turns, whereby the Windsor officials might run scared of offering the meeting the green light – we shall see. KING’S PROCTOR has to give the selection seven pounds which might prove to be a tough ask, especially as his Nottingham success (impressive though it was) was gained on good ground.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card
3.50: The bottom trio in the weights might struggle to win, given that the five gold medallists thus far have carried a minimum burden of 8-13, stats which rule out the current 7/4 favourite (Bombero) if you follow such trends. Accordingly, I would rather side with value for money types like FAST AND HOT (Richard Hannon’s only runner on the card which is unusual at Windsor to say the least), fellow course winner ESSENAITCH and MANCHEGO, who has been the subject of a little support overnight.
Favourite factor: Although favourites have won two of the five renewals to date at 7/2 & 15/8, it’s worth noting that the other three market leaders all finished out with the washing, missing out on Placepot positions.
Record of the two course winners in the fourth race on the card:
2/6—Fast And Hot (good & good to soft)
2/11—Essenaitch (good and good to soft)
4.20: There is no doubting that MOBSTA was unlucky at Doncaster the last day but for bookmakers to chalk up Mick Channon’s raider at 5/4 is overstating the case from my viewpoint. Yes, I have to include the jolly in the Placepot mix, though each way types such as BLAINE (surely a tad too big at 22/1 in a place) and POET’S PRINCESS offer better value for money, especially on this type of ground.
Favourite factor: This is another new event on the Windsor programme.
4.50: ICART POINT represents Clive Cox who was the leading trainer at this venue last year in the early part of the season, with the Poet’s voice gelding being the trainer’s only runner on the card today. Clive saddled a winner at Kempton on Friday to offer more confidence in the selection. POLLY’S GOLD is rated as the main threat on this occasion.
Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites (via five renewals) have finished in the frame, statistics which include two successful (7/2 & 3/1**) market leaders.
Record of the four course winners in the 7th (non Placepot) race on the card:
1/4—Helfire (good to firm)
1/10—Harlequon Striker (soft)
1/2—East Coast Lady (soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.