REDCAR – APRIL 28
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £15.50 (6 favourites: 4 winners - 1 placed - 1 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Redcar:
Leg 1 (2.05): 1 (Baltic Beau), 5 (Eid Rose) & 4 (Trust The Indian)
Leg 2 (2.35): 12 (Shahaama), 5 (Brickholes) & 6 (Cersei)
Leg 3 (3.05): 5 (Muroor) & 8 (Excellent World)
Leg 4 (3.35): 1 (Albert Boy), 3 (Maulsden May) & 4 (Ice Alert)
Leg 5 (4.10): 5 (Slemy) & 6 (Galesberg)
Leg 6 (4.45): 2 (Evanescent) & 7 (Victoire De Lyphar)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
2.05 Richard Fahey has only saddled a couple of two-year-old winners this term but in a race that will not take a great deal of winning, Richard can greet his thirteenth juvenile winner at Redcar in the last five years with his Camacho newcomer BALTIC BEAU. Only Kevin Ryan of the represented trainers has managed to snare two-year-old prizes on a (similar) semi regular basis, whereby EID ROSE could outrun his odds following a moderate Kempton effort on debut. That said, nothing could live with the (Mark Johnston trained) winner that day and this contest represents a distinct drop in class. TRUST THE INDIAN looks booked for third spot from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: Last year's 4/6 winner made amends for the complete demise of the inaugural 11/8 market leader.
Five year record of represented trainers with their juveniles at Redcar:
Richard Fahey (Baltic Beau) - 12/81
Paul Midgley (Paisley Abbey) - 1/16
Tom Dascombe (The Fossil) - 0/9
Bill Turner (Trust The Indian) - 2/8
Kevin Ryan (Eid Rose) - 6/47
Stan Moore (To Have A Dream) - 0/10
2.35: Three-year-olds have won ten of the last eleven renewals. The three-year-old winners included one at 40/1 whilst a 100/1 chance prevented the junior raiders from securing a 'clean sweep' back in 2005. Despite finishing seventh on debut, SHAHAAMA was 'only' beaten five lengths at Kempton and with Mick Channon's Showcasing filly representing a yard bang in form, Graham Lee's mount is the first name on the team sheet. BROCKHOLES carries familiar colours for the Richard Fahey stable, whilst CERSEI cannot be overlooked in this grade/company.
Favourite factor: Successful favourites had been conspicuous only by their absence during the 10 year study period immediately before the 9/4 market leader prevailed twelve months ago. Five market leaders have finished in the frame during the study period. Three odds on market leaders have been turned over including the 1/3 favourite which I did not mention in dispatches two years ago.
3.05: I'm inclined to Take on King Of Naples and though MUROOR and EXCELLENT WORLD have hardly set the world alight either via an aggregate of three assignments thus far, there is a thought that this pair will offer some value for money against James Fanshawe's raider. Rain and/or snow showers are forecast on top of soft ground already in place, whereby the experience gained by EXCELLENT WORLD under heavy conditions on her one and only start to date should aid and abet her cause.
Favourite factor: Last year's inaugural 7/4 favourite was beaten by the minimum margin when securing a Placepot positions twelve months ago.
3.35: The last seven winners have carried a minimum weight of 9-1 and my short listed trio all hail from the relevant sector of this three-year-old handicap. ALBERT BOY has been Scott Dixon's lone runner at at the track this year and with Scott only declaring his Falco gelding on Thursday, horse and trainer are defending a 1/1 ratio at the venue this term. Connections might have most to fear from MAULSDEN MAY and ICE ALERT at the business end of proceedings.
Favourite factor: Five of the eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four of the last seven winners (13/8-6/4-11/8-10/3).
Redcar record of course winners in the fourth race:
4.10: The last four gold medallists have carried a minimum weight of 9-2 as have eleven of the last twelve horses to have claimed toteplacepot positions whereby the bottom three horses in the handicap are (or should be) eliminated from my overnight thoughts. That still leaves five runners to assess in this 'dead eight' contest, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be SLEMY and DUTCH BREEZE. Sixteen ounces below the 'superior' weight barrier sits GALESBERG, a winner of two of his last three races, both victories having been gained on soft ground. I am inclined to overlook by 'anorak tendencies' accordingly.
Favourite factor: Four of the six market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include three (5/2-9/4-1/2) gold medallists.
Redcar record of course winners in the fifth events on the card:
4.45: Five time winner Red Refraction sits seven pounds below the highest mark that Richard Hannon's raider has won off in the past, though his form is so poor right now that he cannot be backed with confidence, even at this 'claimer' level. Equally however, it is difficult to leave the top weight out of the Placepot equation, with EVANESCENT and VICTOIRE DE LYPHAR added to the mix.
Favourite factor: Eight of the ten winners during the last eleven years have been returned at a top price of 4/1, statistics which include five successful favourites. Eight market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science) during the study period.
Redcar record of course winners in the toteplacepot finale:
A J Cook--1/9
Victoire De Lyphar--2/8
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Redcar card on Thursday:
6--Richard Fahey (2/7 at Redcar this season)
3--Tim Easterby (0/3)
3--Brian Ellison (0/4)
3--Richard Hannon (--)
2--Ron Barr (1/3)
2--Ruth Carr (0/5)
2--Tony Coyle (0/3) - Tony saddled a 10/3 winner on last year's card
2--David O'Meara (1/3) - David saddled a 9/4* winner on last year's card
2--Scott Dixon (1/1)
2--John Quinn (0/2)
2--Ed Walker (--)
+ 34 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
63 declared runners
Corresponding Placpot dividends from last year's meetings:
Chelmsford: £116.60 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
Lingfield (A/W): £60.50 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)
Sedgefield: £90.20 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)
Malcolm Jefferson: 19/1 double on last year's Sedgefield card - runners on Thursday
Donald McCain: 8/1 double on last year's card - runners on Thursday
Additional notice: Willie Mullins landed a 3,273/1 five timer on last year's corresponding Thursday card at Punchestown.
2 meetings thus far this season: 21 races - 17 favourites - 5 winners - 2 placed - 10 unplaced
Average Placepot dividend: £2,005.25
Richard Fahey is the only trainer to have saddled more than one winner at the track this season, having greeted winners at 14/1 & 4/1**.
In addition to the stats and facts above, Kevin Ryan saddles one runner on Thursday's card having scored with a 9/4 favourite at the corresponding meeting last year.