DONCASTER - SEPTEMBER 16
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £235.80 (8 favourites - 3 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Doncaster:
Leg 1 (1.50): 8 (Vibrant Chords), 11 (A Momentofmadness), 12 (Compas Scoobie) & 14 (Captain Colby)
Leg 2 (2.25): 3 (Home Of The Brave), 2 (Aclaim) & 6 (Nathra)
Leg 3 (3.00): 6 (Mythical Magic) & 1 (Dream Today)
Leg 4 (3.35): 6 (Raheen House), 1 (Capri) & 3 (Crystal Ocean)
Leg 5 (4.10): 2 (Westerland) & 4 (Regimented)
Leg 6 (4.45): 6 (Big Baz), 2 (Muntazah) & 7 (Battered)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.50: Five-year-olds have won six of the last 10 renewals of the 'Portland', whilst four-year-olds have claimed four of the last five contests. The last 12 winners have carried a minimum burden of 8-12, whilst middle to high numbers have dominated in recent years as you can see for yourself below. Indeed, only four horses drawn in the lowest three stalls have secured toteplacepot positions during the last 11 years when 44 opportunities have been up for grabs. Putting the stats and facts together creates a short list of VIBRANT CHORDS (drawn 8/22), A MOMENTOFMADNESS (20) and COMPAS SCOOBY (9). CAPTAIN COLBY (16) won the race last year with HARRY HURRICANE (7) back in third place (beaten two lengths), the pair both having carried nine stones. The winner is now four pounds better off and seemingly has the best of the draw, whereby I find it a little difficult to comprehend how George Baker’s latter named raider is favoured over the defending champion this morning. My weight stats support ‘Harry’ but otherwise I would have to plump for the captain to confirm the placings, albeit marginally.
Favourite factor: Six favourites have won during the last 19 years, which is a perfectly respectable ratio given the competitive nature of this event. Level stake punters would have shown a profit of £850.00 for a one hundred pound investment on market leaders during the study period. 10 of the last 23 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process. 12 of the last 16 winners were returned at odds ranging between 11/1 and 20/1.
Draw factor (five and a half furlongs – most recent result listed first):
12-1-9-16 (20 ran-good)
10-15-1-2 (10 ran-good)
15-9-21-11 (20 ran-good)
12-11-14-17 (21 ran-good to soft)
21-18-12-16 (20 ran-good)
15-7-16-19 (21 ran-good to firm)
7-6-16-8 (22 ran-good)
16-22-2-17 (22 ran-good to firm)
18-9-14-21 (21 ran-soft)
21-11-14-12 (21 ran-good to firm)
5-22-7-4 (21 ran-good to firm)
13-1-8-12 (22 ran-good)
15-22-8-9 (22 ran-good)
20-16-11-2 (22 ran-good)
9-16-19-14 (22 ran-good to firm)
8-11-9-16 (22 ran-good)
16-20-22-18 (21 ran-good to firm)
10-14-8-3 (21 ran-good)
6-22-19-7 (22 ran-good to firm)
Record of course winners in the opening race:
1/7—Pipers Note (good to firm
1/2—Stake Acclaim (soft)
1/2—Captain Colby (good)
1/1—Justanotherbottle (good to soft)
1/6—Move In Time (good)
2.25: HOME OF THE BRAVE has been given an easy season to date and the timing of his assignments this term have proved spot on. Similarly, Hugo Palmer has enjoyed a fine year and it’s difficult to envisage Hugo’s five-year-old finishing out of the frame. ACLAIM and NATHRA are expected to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings, especially with Spirit Of Valour disappointing yours truly the last day. Sir Dancealot won’t be far away at an each way price I’ll wager, though Davuid Elsworth’s raider has been kept on the go of late, certainly by comparison to HOME OF THE BRAVE who looks to been targeted for this event for some time.
Favourite factor: Ten of the 14 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include three successful market leaders.
Draw factor (seven furlongs):
8-4-3 (8 ran-good)
7-4-9 (15 ran-good)
1-6 (7 ran-good)
10-9-6 (9 ran-good to soft)
3-6-2 (8 ran-good)
4-5 (5 ran-good to firm)
8-11-6 (12 ran-good)
6-3 (6 ran-good to firm)
4-5-1 (9 ran-soft)
1-6 (6 ran-good to firm)
1-3-2 (9 ran-good)
2-8-5 (11 ran-good to firm)
7-1-3 (8 ran-good to firm)
9-1-4 (9 ran-good)
Doncaster record of runners in the third race:
2/3--Breton Rock (good & good to soft)
3.00: It is disappointing in the extreme that just seven trainers have taken up the challenge of saddling the Group 2 'Champagne' winner this season (only 27 runners have contested the race during the last five years). Yes, MYTHICAL MAGIC is a worthy favourite but Charlie Appleby’s Ifraaj colt is not exactly bombproof from what we have witnessed thus far, so why the lack of interest in this Group 2 event? DREAM TODAY is preferred to Red Mist of the more likely winners in the line up. Grand Koonta is expected to outrun his (28/1) price but probably not to Placepot effect.
Favourite factor: Eight favourites have won during the last 19 years, whilst 13 of the 21 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.
Draw factor (seven furlongs):
1-5 (6 ran-good)
2-3 (6 ran-good)
5-4 (6 ran-good)
5 (4 ran-good to soft)
1-5 (5 ran-good)
4-3 (5 ran-good to firm)
3-6 (6 ran-good)
2-1 (7 ran-good to firm)
7-8 (7 ran-soft)
9-10-1 (10 ran-good to firm)
8/6 (dead heat)--(7 ran-good to soft)
3-2-9 (10 ran-good to firm)
2-4 (6 ran-good)
8-2-10 (11 ran-good to firm)
1-5-9 (8 ran-good to soft)
4-8-2 (8 ran-good to firm)
1-3 (6 ran-good to firm)
8-6-2 (8 ran-good)
4-1 (5 ran-good to firm)
2/4--Humidor (good & good to firm)
1/2--Red Pike (good)
1/4--Hoofalong (good to firm)
1/1--Mukaynis (good to firm)
3.35: Aidan O’Brien has saddled the winner of the St Leger four times during the last 16 years, with CAPRI heading a two pronged attack on the last Classic of the season. The home contingent offer a formidable threat on this occasion however, with CRYSTAL OCEAN, STRADIVARIUS and my each way selection RAHEEN HOUSE among the declarations. Brian Meehan has pulled several rabbits out of hats down the years and it’s always worth a length or two to have an ‘autumn horse’ at your disposal and RAHEEN HOUSE certainly ran well at the back end last year. Adam Kirby’s mount has taken his time to return to the area reserved for winners this term but got the job done nicely at Newmarket the last day and at 14/1, Brian’s Sea The Stars colt is the win and place (value for money) call. It goes without saying that Sea The Stars was also a ‘back end’ thoroughbred have gained his last success in the 2009 running of the ‘Arc’. Sea The Stars was one of the true superstars of the last decade, winning his last eight races having finished fourth on debut. CRSTYAL OCEAN is added to the Placepot mix (alongside (CAPRI) as rain is due to hit the Doncaster area at around the start of the meeting, which should suit Sir Michael Stoute’s raider over Stradivarius.
Favourite factor: Nine clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed during the last 20 years. 18 of the 22 favourites have finished in the frame during the study period. Favourite backers will hope for a better run for their collective monies compared to last year when 4/6 chance Idaho stumbled before unseating his rider.
4.20: John Gosden has won with two of the three horses he has saddled in this Nursery event in recent years and in WESTERLAND, John looks to have found the right opportunity for his Frankel colt to return to winning ways. REGIMENTED has proved popular overnight which is hardly surprising given his record thus far. Rhosneigr and Makseb are closely matched but I will opt for the first named pair to dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest.
Favourite factor: Nine of the last 10 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include four winners.
4.50: Three and four-year-olds have both won four renewals of the toteplacepot finale during the last 12 years, with just three contests escaping their grip on the contest. Last year’s 7/1 winner (Can’t Change It) was among my short listed trio and the 10/1 offer by Bet365 this morning about BIG BAZ suggests that I am taking another decent priced horse to prevail in the Placepot finale. MUNTAZAH is another each way option to consider, whilst BATTERED completes my trio against the remaining seven contenders, the pick of which is likely to be Sinfonietta.
Favourite factor: Two clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed via 11 renewals during the last 12 years. Seven of the 13 favourites have finished in the frame (exact science - as in all cases on this page) during the study period.
Doncaster record of runners in the Placepot finale
2/4—Bronze Angel (2 x good)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Doncaster card on Saturday – followed by their number of corresponding winners on the day on Town Moor during the last six years:
8 runners—Aidan O’Brien (1 winner)
4—John Gosden (2)
3—David O’Meara (2)
3—Roger Varian (2)
2—Charlie Hills (2)
2—Mark Johnston (1)
+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
71 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Bath: £75.20 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced
Chester: £472.10 – 9 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 5 unplaced
Lingfield: £185.00 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 placed
Musselburgh: £121.00 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced