KEMPTON - DECEMBER 26
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £35.40 (6 favourites - 2 winners 1 placed – 3 unplaced)
Boxing Day Placepot permutation at Kempton:
Leg 1 (12.55): 2 (Jenkins), 3 (Elgin) & 4 (Glaring)
Leg 2 (1.30): 4 (Gold Present), 3 (Two Taffs) & 6 (Poker School)
Leg 3 (2.05): 4 (Churchtown Champ), 7 (Present Man) & 9 (Virgilio)
Leg 4 (2.40): 4 (Yanworth) & 2 (My Tent Or Yours)
Leg 5 (3.15): 1 (Cue Card), 5 (Thistlecrack) & 4 (Tea For Two)
Leg 6 (3.45): 6 (Omassa Has), 8 (Moscato) & 3 (Big Chief Benny)
Suggested stake: 486 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.55: On a general front, it's worth noting that well 57% of the Kempton entries on Boxing Day hail from just six stables, whilst 67% are covered by just eight handlers. Four and five-year-olds have secured 16 of the last 18 renewals (older raiders lead 10-8) of this opening event. Nicky Henderson has secured five contests during the study period whilst the Lambourn trainer had saddled the three previous silver medallists before returning to winning ways four years ago before another victory was posted twelve months ago. Nicky’s only option at the four day stage was JENKINS who receives the vote accordingly, with connections probably having most to fear from ELGIN. Ballyhill could find things happening a little too quickly around this circuit over the minimum trip having scored over an additional five furlongs at Ludlow, though how much potential GLARING carries is an unknown factor. The fact that Richard Johnson has been booked to ride suggests that Amanda Perrett is taking the race seriously. By the by, If I am wrong about Ballyhill, it would be a really positive pointer towards Moscato in the finale.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have obliged via the last 17 renewals, and aside from a 20/1 winner in 1999, the biggest priced gold medallist during the period was returned at 12/1 (three years ago). 14 of the last 18 market leaders have finished in the frame.
1.30: Six and seven-year-olds have won nine of the last twelve renewals between them whilst 11 of the last 14 winners have carried weights of eleven stones or more. Nicky Henderson has won five of the last nine renewals with the trainer double handed at the penultimate entry stage. Nick has offered the green light to GOLD PRESENT. There was much to like about the way Nicky’s gelding won at Doncaster on similar ground to what is being forecast for Boxing Day. If Nicky is to be denied another success, the likeliest party-poopers appear to be TWO TAFFS and POKER SCHOOL, the other two six-year-olds in the contest
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have snared gold via 15 renewals to date, though just five of the other thirteen market leaders additionally claimed toteplacepot positions.
Record of the course winners in the second race:
2/2--Poker School (good & good to soft)
2.05: Six-year-olds have won seven of the last twelve renewals of this event and with CHURCHTOWN CHAMP and PRESENT MAN representing the vintage this time around (amongst four others), the trend could well be extended. PRESENT MAN has won on his last three starts when getting round and could give young Jack Sherwood the thrill of a lifetime by scoring in front of the packed stands, though Tom Scudamore might take some beating aboard CHURCHTOWN CHAMP. That said, Dan Skelton’s six-year-old is joined by stable companion VIRGILIO with Harry Skelton presumingly having had the choice of rides.
Favourite factor: Seven of the last nineteen market leaders have prevailed, whilst twelve favourites secured toteplacepot positions. 15 of the last 19 winners were returned at odds of 6/1 or less.
Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:
1/2--Amore Alato (soft)
1/1--Might Be (good)
2.40: Six-year-olds had won five of the last nine renewals of this Christmas Hurdle, though last year’s lone 25/1 chance has little chance of extending the trend. Such odds will not be on offer for YANWORTH of course who is taken to beat THE NEW ONE and MY TENT OR YOURS. For the record, the last thirteen runners saddled by Paul Nicholls in this event have been beaten. It comes as no surprise accordingly that Paul has not declared an entry this time around. Conversely, Nicky Henderson has won four of the last six renewals though whatever the relevant excuses offered at Chepstow last time out, MY TENT OR YOURS might find YANWORTH a tad too quick for him around this fast circuit. I expect Nicky’s raider to turn the Cheltenham tables on THE NEW ONE under faster conditions, whilst CH ‘TIBELLO will not have the same (heavy) ground on his side as was the case the last day at Haydock.
Favourite factor: Six of the last thirteen favourites have won, though the previous four market leaders were all beaten during the study period. Ten of the last seventeen market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.
Record of the course winners in the Christmas Hurdle:
1/1--My Tent Or Yours (soft)
3/5--The New One (2 x good to soft & good)
3.15: Seven-year-olds have won seven of the last 16 renewals of the King George, even taking into account that the vintage was not represented twelve months ago. This year’s lone relevant raider is TEA FOR TWO (3/3 at the track) who won the ‘Kauto Star’ in the novice sector on this card twelve months ago. Although rated 23 pounds inferior to CUE CARD (let alone THISTLECRACK), I would be surprised if the Nick Williams failed to hang on to their ‘coat tails’ until turning for home on the last circuit. Just five runners maybe, but this renewal has the hallmark of a contest to be savoured because even if one horse disappoints on the day, there are othser that can compensate. JOSSES HILL (could be rushed into mistakes at this level) has been supplemented for well documented reasons including the £10k supplementary price, whilst dual winner Silvinaco Conti is considered a potential ‘also ran’ by bookmakers (and yours truly), which tells you all you need to know about the race. And so we come to the main protagonists. The only bet I would have on the race is in the ‘ante post’ bag already, as I was tempted by the 5/4 quote for Cue Card to be returned as favourite over THISTLECRACK, utilising the logical theory that the horse ‘with the t-shirt’ is value for money over the young pretender, however brilliant that particularly horse might be. So there we are, I am potentially beaten before the tapes go up but hey, I just want to watch the race for its potential, which is quite outstanding. That’s part of the reason I took the 5/4, win lose or draw.
Favourite factor: Although 10 favourites have won the King George during the last 18 years, seven of the other 11 market leaders failed to finish in the frame. Only Jair Du Cochet (pulled up in 2003 behind the much underrated Edredon Bleu), Kauto Star (2010) and Long Run (2011) had failed to snare gold via the ‘jollies perspective’ in the previous 11 years, before joint beaten favourites Cue Card & Dynaste let the side down in 2013. Three years on, CUR CARD is another horse entirely.
Record of the course winners in the 'King George':
1/4--Cue Card (good to soft)
2/4--Jossess Hill (good & soft)
2/5--Silviniaco Conti (good to soft & soft)
3/3--Tea For Two (2 x good to soft & soft)
3.45: Eight of the last ten winners of the finale have carried a minimum burden of 11-2, whilst Nicky Henderson (OMESSA HAS) has secured three of the last ten contests. This appears to be the one race on the card that could give bookmakers some breathing space, given that their ledgers (I'm showing my age) will be dominated by so few horses in the previous events on the card. OMESSA HAS is the first name on my team sheet however, with Nicky having pulled rabbits out of this particular hat when least expected down the years. Others to consider over your Christmas pudding include, BIG CHIEF BENNY and MOSCATO. The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to SPIRITOFTHEGAMES. It only remains for me to wish you a truly wonderful Christmas whilst backing a few winners on Monday.
Favourite factor: Four of the last eleven favourites have won, whilst seven of the sixteen market leaders have finished in the frame during the study period.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/2--Vicenzo Mio (soft)
1/3--Mr Fickle (good)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Kempton card on Boxing Day – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:
7 runners—Nicky Henderson (56/191 – Profit of 50 points)
7—Dan Skelton (7/51 – loss of 26 points)
5—Paul Nicholls (30/144 – loss of 17 points)
4—Colin Tizzard (8/63 – loss of 25 points)
3—Alan King (20/152 – loss of 66 points)
3—Nigel Twiston-Davies (7/47 (loss of 21 points)
2—Chris Gordon (7/43 – Profit of 43 points)
2—Gary Moore (7/81 (loss of 32 points)
+ 18 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
51 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Fontwell: £438.20 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced
Huntingdon: £4,925.70 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced
Market Rasen: £836.70 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced
Sedgefield: £213.30 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced
Wincanton: £1,239.90 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced
Wolverhampton: £24.80 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced
Wetherby: Meeting abandoned