NEWMARKET - AUGUST 11
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £341.60 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket:
Leg 1 (5.30): 2 (Daybreak), 5 (Lady Godiva) & 6 (Ocala)
Leg 2 (6.05): 1 (Lexington Grace) & 4 (Kheleyf’s Girl)
Leg 3 (6.35): 5 (Old Persian), 6 (Rastrelli) & 12 (Vintager)
Leg 4 (7.05): 1 (Swilly Sunset) & 4 (Hard Toffee)
Leg 5 (7.35): 3 (Titi Makfi) & 4 (Seduce Me)
Leg 6 (8.05): 2 (Jordan Sport), 1 (Reputation) & 4 (Waqaas)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
5.30: DAYBREAK appears to set the standard here having finished fourth at Newbury under yielding conditions on her first day at school. Beaten ‘only’ four lengths that day, Hughie Morrison can rightly expect some improvement and Adam Kirkby’s mount is a certainty for my Placepot mix at the very least. Similarly, LADY GODIVA did not finish much further adrift on her debut at Ascot and with many of Richard Hannon’s youngsters seemingly need a run this term, Sean Levey’s mount could also take a hand in the finish. For the record, the relevant sire Camelot has a soft ground winner to his name. The pick of the newcomers will hopefully prove to be OCALA, though CAPESTHORNE was withdrawn from a race last week which looked tougher to win than this contest. An interest start to the evening.
Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Newmarket on Friday evening.
6.05: The last sixteen winners of this juvenile selling event have been returned at odds of 7/1 or less, albeit just five successful favourites were recorded during the study period. That said, market leaders come to the gig on a five timer on this occasion whereby the chance of LEXINGTON GRACE is very much respected. Looking to have little or no chance in the Newbury’s ‘Super Sprint’ the last day, Silvestre De Sousa’s mount did precious little wrong on his previous assignments, having won on fast ground at Nottingham during the period. I’m far from convinced that this seventh furlong will fully suit KHELEYF’S GIRL but other threats to the selection look thin on the ground.
Favourite factor: Six favourites have won during the last nineteen years, whilst eleven of the twenty market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.
6.35: A race over this (seven furlong) trip for ‘babies’ which have not set foot on a racecourse inevitably draws the assessment that there will be an element of luck involved should any of us select the winner because aside from positive market activity, this looks to be a ‘pin job’ if ever there was one, especially with so many leading trainers involved. That said, Charlie Appleby’s pair OLD PERSIAN and RASTRELLI have attracted support overnight, whilst each way money has also been recorded about VINTAGER which makes for interesting reading.
Favourite factor: Ten clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last twenty years. 15 of the 21 market leaders have secured a toteplacepot position during the study period. Last year’s 8/15 market leader was beaten in a four runner ‘win only’ which contributed to the good Placepot dividend of £341.60.
7.05: 12 of the last 13 winners have carried weights of 9-0 or more, though just one horse is eliminated via the weight trend this time around. The hat trick achieved by SWILLY SUNSET has been gained under contrasting conditions whereby connections of his six rivals can gain little confidence from the prevailing soft ground. Silvestre De Sousa is riding with tons of confidence right now (29% strike rate his last 22 winners) which can only aid and abet the chance of the projected favourite. HARD TOFFEE is the marginal call of the opposition.
Favourite factor: Six favourites have won via 16 renewals during the last 18 years, whilst 11 of the 19 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.
7.35: Three-year-olds have secured nine of the thirteen contests, though four-year-olds have fought back recently having won three of the last four renewals, with vintage representatives on a hat trick this time around. The junior contingent should rule the waves here however, especially with strong northern challengers having been declared, namely TITI MAKFI and SEDUCE ME. TIT MAKFI is a typically tough type from the Mark Johnston yard, whilst Karl Burke (SEDUCE ME) has been winning far more races south of Birmingham this season compared to recent seasons. As an example, Karl has saddled six winners at Sandown & Windsor this season, compared to just three during the whole of 2016.
Favourite factor: Nine renewals had slipped by without a successful market leader being recorded before the 5/4 jolly obliged three years ago, followed up by joint favourites filling the forecast positions twelve months on. That said, last year’s 15/8 market leader finished out with the washing. 11 of the last 12 gold medallists were returned at a top price of 8/1 alongside a 40/1 winner.
Record of the course winner in the fifth race:
1/1—Red Tea (good to firm)
8.10: Red lights are flashing as I start looking at this event, especially as there has to be a chance that the five runner field will dissolve down to a ‘win only’ event. The trade press 3/1 quote about JORDAN SPORT looks fanciful in the extreme with a full point (more with some firms) being lost via overnight support. REPUTATION and WAQAAS will hopefuilly offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings in the finale.
Favourite factor: One clear market leader and two joint favourites have scored during the last 20 years, whilst ten of the 24 market leaders have secured Placepot positions in the process. The last 16 winners have scored at 16/1-14/1-12/1-10/1-9/1-9/1-8/1-6/1-6/1-6/1-6/1-5/1-5/1-9/2-9/2***-2/1, with just the one (co) market leader being recorded.
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
1/3—Major Pusey (soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newmarket card on Friday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—Richard Hannon (6/47 – Profit of 10 points)
3—Charlie Appleby (10/32 – Profit of 2 points)
2—Marco Botti (3/8 – Profit of 5 points)
2—Anthony Carson (1/5 (Profit of 1 point)
2—David Elsworth (0/14)
2—David Evans (0/1)
2—Richard Fahey (2/27 – loss of 8 points)
2—Charlie Hills (1/33 – loss of 27 points)
2—Sir Michael Stoute (2/18 – loss of 11 points)
+ 25 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
46 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Brighton: £486.80 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced
Haydock: £399.10 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced
Musselburgh: £616.00 – 78 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced
Wolverhampton: £3.90 – 7 favourites – 4 winners & 3 placed