SANDOWN – MARCH 11
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £141.90 (6 favourites: 2 winners--1 placed- 3 unplaced)
Average Placepot dividend (all codes) in 2016 (calendar year): £611.76
Average NH Placepot dividend in 2016: £846.54
Average Sandown Placepot dividend in 2016: £403.73 (3 meetings)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Sandown:
Leg 1 (2.10): 6 (Smart Catch), 8 (Kastani Beach) & 2 (Newton Geronimo)
Leg 2 (2.40): 4 (What's The Scoop) & 1 (Bad Boy Du Pouldu)
Leg 3 (3.15): 3 (Minellahalfcentury), 8 (Jennys Surprise) & 2 (Cowards Close)
Leg 4 (3.50): 3 (Cadoudoff) & 10 (Doctor Look Here)
Leg 5 (4.25): 1 (The Brock Again) & 2 (Chestnut Ben)
Leg 6 (5.00): 1 (Bagging Turf) & 4 (Tara Well)
Suggested stake: 144 bets to 20p stakes
2.10: Seven-year-olds have won four of the last nine renewals, with vintage representatives at 4/1 to extend the trend before the form book is consulted in the opening contest. Listed in order of preference as NEWTON GERONIMO and JUST WHEN in this race for amateur riders, this pair are in contention to be included in my permutation, albeit their form figures hardly set the pulse racing. UN PROPHETE and SMART CATCH are dangers to the seven-year-olds on this occasion. whilst last year's winner KASTANI BEACH cannot be left out of the mix at the overnight stage.
Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders have scored alongside two joint favourites via 17 renewals. Thirteen of the nineteen jollies have reached the frame (exact science).
Sandown record of course winners in the opening event:
1/3--Kastani Beach (C&D winner)
2.40: Nicky Henderson has saddled five of the last eleven winners and the Seven Barrows licence holder has declared WHAT'S THE SCOOP on this occasion. Five-year-olds have won six of the last ten contests and regular readers won't be surprised to read that leading trainers Gary Moore (BAD BOY DU POULDU) and Harry Fry (AIR HORSE ONE) are alive to the stats.
Favourite factor: Four favourites have won via the last eleven renewals. The eleven gold medallists have scored at a top price of 7/1, whilst ten recent market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.
3.15: Paul Nicholls has won four of the last eleven renewals of the Grand Military Gold Cup having secured a hat trick between 2005 and 2007 (all favourites), with Paul saddling five losers in the interim period. Paul saddled his 'second string' to snare the silver medal twelve months ago at odds of 11/2, his 5/4 favourite having finished well down the field. Paul has declared MINELLAHALFCENTURY this time around, though both of the course and distance winners in the field pose definite threats, namely JENNYS SURPRISE and COWARDS CLOSE.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won six of the last thirteen renewals, though just five of the other thirteen favourites have additionally secured toteplacepot positions during the last seventeen years.
Sandown record of course winners in the third contest:
1/2--Cowards Close (C&D winners)
1/1--Jennys Surprise (C&D winner)
3.50: Twelve of the fifteen winners in recent years have carried weights of 11-2 or more, whilst six-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals. Berkeley Baron was one of two 'qualifiers' two years when scoring for me at 10/1 but can you believe that no vintage raiders lined up twelve months ago? I despair of trainers at times when trends are obviously offering pointers but upwards and onward in positive mode by informing that CADOUDOFF is the only entry that possesses ticks in both boxes. Three other six-year-olds have been declared, with AYALOR and DOCTOR LOOK HERE preferred to Bells N Banjos this time around.
Favourite factor: Two clear market leaders (alongside two joint favourites) have won during the study period, whilst eight of the seventeen jollies have finished in the frame.
Sandown record of course winners in the fourth race:
1/4--Little Boy Boru
4.25: Eleven of the thirteen winners to date have carried weights ranging between 10-11 and 11-9, as have 22 of the 31 horses that have secured toteplacepot positions. Six-year-olds have won four of the last nine contests, even though no vintage representatives were declared twelve months ago. THE BROCK AGAIN is the only runner with ticks in both of the trend boxes whereby the Paul Nicholls raider is the first name on the team sheet, ahead of CHESTNUT BEN.
Favourite factor: Only five of the fifteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include four winners.
Sandown record of course winners in the fifth event:
1/3--Olympian Boy (C&D winner)
5.00: Gary Moore sets a frantic pace at the top of the Sandown factfile this season, having saddled no less than nine winners via his 17 runners at the track! Gary has a definite chance to improve the ratio still further here via his declaration of BAGGING TURF, with connections probably having most to fear from the likes of TARA WELL and HOLLOW BAY.
Favourite factor: Last year's inaugural 11/10 favourite found an 8/1 chance too good for him when securing a Placepot position.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Sandown card on Friday:
3--Tony Carroll (Sandown stats this season: 1/2)
2--Nikki Evans (--)
2--Harry Fry (1/1)
2--Chris Gordon (0/5)
2--Warren Greatrex (0/2)
2--Sophie Leech (0/3)
2--Gary Moore (9/17)
2--Paul Nicholls (1/18)
2--Henry Oliver (0/2)
2--Paul Webber (0/4)
2--Dai Williams (0/1)
2--Venetia Williams (1/24)
+ 18 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
43 declared runners