AINTREE – APRIL 13
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £205.80 (10 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 5 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:
Race 1: 47.8% units went through – 10/1 – 8/1*** - 12/1 – 8/1*** (8/1***)
Race 2: 42.5% of the remaining units when through – 16/1 – 9/4** - 7/1 (9/4**)
Race 3: 94.9% of the remaining units went through – 8/13* & 9/2
Race 4: 61.3% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 – 10/3* - 14/1
Race 5: 6.3% of the remaining units went through – 50/1 – 22/1 – 66/1 – 12/1 (2 x 8/1**)
Race 6: 47.7% of the units secured the dividend – 3/1 – 9/1 – 11/1 (11/4)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Aintree:
Leg 1 (1.45): 2 (Who Dares Wins), 9 (Lough Derg Spirit) & 6 (Storm Home)
Leg 2 (2.20): 10 (Scarlet Dragon), 4 (Global Citizen) & 13 (Vision Des Flos)
Leg 3 (2.50): 7 (Terrefort), 10 (Ms Parfois) & 1 (Black Corton)
Leg 4 (3.25): 1 (Balko Des Flos) & 4 (Min)
Leg 5 (4.05): 22 (Theatre Terriroty), 15 (Ballyalton), 3 (Top Gamble) & 11 (Ultragold)
Leg 6 (4.40): 11 (Santini) & 2 (Chef Des Obeaux)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
1.45: Six-year-olds have won seven of the last eleven renewals, with vintage representatives having secured the first three places last year via just 36% of the total number of runners, a result which brought about my 10/1 winner and 92/1 forecast via a trio of nominations. This year’s short list comprises of WHO DARES WINS, LOUGH DERG SPIRIT and STORM HOME, with the trio listed in marginal preference at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: 13 of the last 16 winners were sent off at odds ranging between 10/1 and 50/1 with successful favourites only conspicuous by their absence. The previous nine favourites had finished out with the washing before the 15/2 market leader secured the bronze medal in 2013. The race reverted to type in 2014 when the 4/1 market leader finished back in 14th place when 19 completed the course. Four of the subsequent seven favourites (via three renewals) secured Placepot positions without winning their respective events.
Aintree record of the three course winners in the opening contest:
1/4—Court Minstrel (good to soft)
1/3—Massini’s Trap (good)
1/2—Cornborough (good to soft)
2.20: Five-year-olds have a fantastic record in this race (the vintage have claimed 19 of the last 33 renewals--representatives finished 1-2-3-4 eight years ago and 1-2-3-4-5 in 2010 + the forecast positions six years back. Vintage representatives filled the first seven positions two years ago, albeit via 82% of the total number of runners. To make the figures stand out further still, it should be noted that vintage representatives in 2013 were conspicuous only by their absence. Last year’s three big outsiders (on behalf of the vintage) failed to have a say in the finish, though the likes of SCARLET DRAGON and VISION DES FLOS look sure to go close this afternoon. That said, Ben Pauling’s hat trick seeker GLOBAL CITIZEN is a live threat and no mistake.
Favourite factor: Four favourites have won this event via the last 18 renewals, with eight of the last ten market leaders having secured toteplacepot positions.
Aintree record of the course winner in the second race:
2.50: Seven-year-olds have won nine of the last twenty renewals of this event, yet vintage representatives were only conspicuous by their absence twelve months ago when Might Bite took the honours. Nicky Henderson (Might Bite last year) has saddled no less than fourteen winners on the corresponding day of the meeting during the last seven years! The Seven Barrows based trainer has offered the green light to TERREFORT this time around with a favourite’s chance, though the chances of seven-year-old raiders MS PARFOIS and BLACK CORTON are (predictably) respected. There are worse outsiders on the card than soft ground course winner Captain Chaos at around the 28/1 mark, that’s for sure.
Favourite factor: Going back a long time, 15 of the last 28 renewals (53.6%) have been won by market leaders, whilst 27 of those gold medallists were returned in single figures. Eight of the last fifteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.
Aintree record of the course winner in the third event:
1/1—Captain Chaos (soft)
3.25: The last twelve winners have been aged between seven and nine and the trend looks like being extended on this occasion as only a 33/1 chance in the field is offered the chance of breaking the trend. For those who keep records, this stat is still worth its weight in gold because with just two qualifiers two years ago, 10/1 winner God’s Own scored even though the 1/5 market leader (Vatour) fell when going well when trying to extend the ratio. Willie Mullins has been going through something of a quiet time by his high standards and there is every chance that his representative MIN could get turned over by BALKO DES FLOS despite being made favourite for the contest. Henry De Bromhead’s ‘Ryanair’ winner was oh so impressive at Cheltenham last month and with MIN stepping up in trip here, I would rather stay with the horse that is proven over the distance, despite the fact that Davy Russell’s mount is dropping back a quarter of a mile after his Prestbury Park success.
Favourite factor: The first successful winning favourite of this event was Remittance Man for Nicky Henderson at odds of 4/9 back in 1992. A further ten market leaders have won, whilst nine of the fifteen market leaders during the last thirteen years have claimed toteplacepot positions.
Aintree record of the course winner in the fourth race:
4.05: 14 of the last 17 winners of this event (run over the Grand National fences) have carried weights of 10-12 or less, whilst eleven of the last fifteen winners scored at 50/1-50/1-33/1-25/1-22/1-22/1-16/1-14/1-14/1-11/1-10/1. Nine and ten-year-olds have won nine of the last sixteen renewals whilst securing 35 of the 64 (55%) available Placepot positions between them. Only two Irish trained winners have emerged in the last 38 years. Putting the stats and facts together produces an overnight ‘short list’ of THEATRE TERRITORY, BALLYALTON, TOP GAMBLE and last year’s winner ULTRAGOLD. If there is a horse is the field capable of defying the weight stat (aside from Ultragold and Top Gamble) it could be O O SEVEN who ran well to finish fourth in the race last year, especially when digesting the fact that Nicky Henderson has saddled three of the last five winners.
Favourite factor: Just one (joint) favourite has won the ‘Topham’ via the last nineteen contests. Only four of the eighteen favourites during the last fourteen years have claimed Placepot positions.
Aintree record of the three course winners in the field:
2/6—Eastlake (good soft)
1/5—Highland Lodge (soft)
4.40: Six-year-olds hold the call in the toteplacepot finale (winners of seven of the last ten contests) as vintage representatives secured the first four places eight years back and silver and bronze medals six years ago. Throw the 2013 1-2-3-4 result and a 1-2-3 (two years ago – 1-3-4 last year) via vintage representatives and you can probably guess why my overnight duo against the other twelve contenders consists of SANTINI and XCHEF DES OBEAUX. Both horses are trained by Nicky Henderson who also saddles the main threat, namely OK CORRAL.
Favourite factor: Six renewals had slipped by since a favourite prevailed before the 2013 market leader fought back on behalf of punters. The last four favourites have been beaten, whilst eight of the fourteen favourites have finished in the frame (exact science) in as many years.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.