CHELTENHAM - DECEMBER 15
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £1,708.10 (7 favourites – 1 winner & 6 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Cheltenham:
Leg 1 (12.10): 2 (Western Ryder) & 7 (Summerville Boy)
Leg 2 (12.45): 4 (Tintern Theatre), 3 (Sizing Tennessee) & 2 (Dual At Dawn)
Leg 3 (1.20): 5 (Smaoineamh Alainn), 4 (Okotoks) & 2 (Remiluc)
Leg 4 (1.55): 1 (Song Saa), 6 (Twenty Eight Guns) & 8 (Viking Mistress)
Leg 5 (2.30): 3 (Waytzizname) & 6 (Shanroe Sands)
Leg 6 (3.05): 3 (Josies Orders), 1 (More Than That) & 2 (Tiger Roll)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
Breakdown of the 2015 record Placepot dividend of £91,774.50 to a one pound stake at this corresponding meeting:
First leg: One of the two 3/1 second favourites claimed a Placepot position alongside an 11/2 chance in a six runner contest
Second leg: Although two outsiders filled the forecast positions at 16/1 & 25/1, the sixth horse in the market at 9/1 reached the frame. All four 6/1 co-favourites finished out with the washing
Third leg: The 11/8 market leader finished out of the money behind horses which secured Placepot positions at 8/1, 14/1 & 9/1
Fourth leg: The first three favourites at 10/3, 4/1 & 4/1 all finished out of the ‘dead eight frame’
Fifth leg: The 11/4 second favourite led home horses at 7/1 & 28/1 with the 5/2 favourite finishing nearer last than first
Sixth leg: Regular readers will know that I have waxed lyrical about the poor performances of favourites in handicap hurdle races over a distance beyond the minimum trip. Last year’s result (33/1-66/1-16/1) guaranteed that a huge dividend was just waiting to be announced. The first six horses in the market all finished out with the washing.
Afterthought: Eight of the seventeen win and placed horses were sent off in single figures, proving that you don’t have to ‘go for broke’ to win a great dividend. Indeed - 13/17 were placed at 16/1 or less – with 16/20 horses starting at 20/1 or more finishing out of the frame
Today’s race by race analysis:
12.10: By Cheltenham standards, this is an extremely ordinary card though it is still better sport than we have to witness on most days. Six-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals though trainers have not been wise to the ‘edge’ this time around unfortunately, whereby I’m relying on WESTERN RYDE and SUMMERVILLE BOY to carry my Placepot cash in the opening event, the pair being listed in order of preference at the time of writing. SHOAL BAY would be the call if you are looking for a big priced winner in the first heat and/or if you want to take on the fancied horses from a Placepot perspective.
Favourite factor: Just one (4/6) favourite has obliged during the last decade, though eight of the relevant gold medallists scored at a top price of 5/1. Six of the ten market leaders claimed Placepot position though from a win perspective, favourites have been turned over at 4/7 and 8/11 in recent years.
12.45: Six-year-olds have won 11 of the last 15 renewals and the trend could well be extended, with TINTERN THEATRE having been given the green light by Nigel Twiston-Davies. Out of interest, the lone vintage raider is attempting to become the eighth consecutive six-year-old winner of the contest! Paul Nicholls has secured four of the last nine renewals, though the weather this week has seemingly gone against his representative Coastal Dip. SIZING TENNESSEE and DUAL AT DAWN are preferred accordingly.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have prevailed during the study period, whilst twelve market leaders have finished in the frame. Just two of the seven odds on favourites have won during the last 17 years. A total of 39 horses starting at 6/1 or more failed to win during the study period.
1.20: 14 of the last 20 winners carried weights of 11-8 or less, whilst seven scorers were burdened with a maximum of 10-12. Five-year-olds have won seven of the last 15 renewals. Putting the stats and facts together, an overnight short list emerges containing the names of SMAOINEAMH ALAINN, OKOTOKS and REMILUC. The first named runner (don’t ask me to type the name again) is the lone five-year-old in the contest, whilst OKOTOKS represents the underrated yard of Fergal O’Birebn who I have been telling you for some time in the unsung Cheltenham trainer to call on if you don’t know what to back. Ian Williams saddled last year’s winner and it’s worth noting that the trainer had booked a five pound claimer aboard REMILUC who creeps into the ‘superior’ weight sector accordingly.
Favourite factor: Six clear market leaders have won in recent years, accompanied by two joint favourites. 14 of the last 24 jollies have secured toteplacepot positions. A word of warning for favourite punters however, as the only odds on favourite was beaten ten years ago at 4/5.
Record of course winners in the third race:
1.55: SONG SAA was well beaten in this event last year but has subsequently won two of her eight assignments (one under heavy conditions), notwithstanding the fact that the Midnight Legend mare has finished ‘in the three’ in her last six races. The seven pound claimer represents the same poundage in terms of her advantage compared to the effort twelve months ago which should enable the six-year-old to become competitive at the business end of the contest, arguably alongside the likes of TWENTY EIGHT GUNS and VIKING MISTRESS who both offer value for money from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: Horses filled the frame at 16/1, 7/1 & 13/23 in last year’s inaugural contest, with the 10/3 market leader missing out on a Placepot position.
2.30: The last 11 winners have carried a maximum burden of 11-4 whilst eight-year-olds have secured five of the last 12 renewals. WATZIZNAME and SHANROE SANTOS are the two horses I like in the line up which qualify via the trends.
Favourite factor: Favourites have an excellent record in this event, obliging on 23 occasions since the inaugural contest. However, the most recent successful leader was Midnight Chase at 11/4 back in 2010. It’s also worth noting that only two of last seven favourites have claimed Placepot positions.
Record of course winners in the third race:
1/5—Southfield Theatre (good to soft)
2.05: 11 of the last 12 winners have been nine years of age or more, with nine of those gold medallists recorded in double figures. Enda Bolger has saddled four of the last ten winners and putting the stats and facts together, JOSIES ORDERS, MORE OF THAT and TIGER ROLL are nominated against the remaining six contenders. The latter named raider fails the vintage trend requirement but like MORE THAN THAT, this new discipline might transform ordinary recent efforts into additional Cheltenham success given their great records at the venue.
Favourite factor: Eight of the last nine market leaders have claimed four gold and four silver medals between them alongside toteplacepot positions.
Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:
4/7—More Than That (3 x good to soft & soft)
3/5—Tiger Roll (2 x good to soft & good)
3/4—Josies Orders (2 x good & good to soft)
1/11—Bless The Wings (good to soft)
1/10—Cantlow (good to firm)
1/3—Kingswell Theatre (good)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Cheltenham card on Friday – followed by this season’s stats + profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—Warren Greatrex (0/4)
4—Colin Tizzard (4/21 – loss of 11 points)
3—Enda Bolger (0/2)
3—Tom George (0/8)
3—Paul Nicholls (3/16 – loss of 4 points)
3—David Pipe (1/7 +5)
3—Michael Scudamore (1/1 +14)
3—Nigel Twiston-Davies (4/21 +23)
2—Gordon Elliott (0/6)
2—Chris Gordon (0/1)
2—Martin Keighley (2/9 +27)
2—Fergal O’Brien (3/13 +6)
2—Jonjo O’Neill (0/11)
2—Lucy Wadham (No previous runners this season)
2—Richard Woollacott (0/1)
+ 17 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
57 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Bangor: £54.30 – 7 favourites – 5 winners & 2 unplaced
Doncaster: £141.10 – 9 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced
Chelmsford: This is a new meeting