DONCASTER - SEPTEMBER 15
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £1,078.70 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Doncaster:
Leg 1 (1.20): 5 (Tigre Du Terre) & 2 (Aqabah)
Leg 2 (1.50): 12 (Tomyris), 5 (Tallayeb) & 1 (Unforgetable Filly)
Leg 3 (2.25): 5 (Heartache) & 1 (Havana Grey)
Leg 4 (3.00): 7 (Time To Study) & 3 (Penglai Pavilion)
Leg 5 (3.35): 1 (Montaly), 8 (She Is No Lady), 4 (High Jinx) & 3 (Fun Mac)
Leg 6 (4.05): 4 (Ghaiyyath), 10 (Tiffin Top) & 5 (Military Law)
Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.20: Of the three horses that figured strongly in the market when the final runners were declared, TIGRE DU TERRE is holding up best at the time of writing. Drying ground will suit Richard Hannon’s raider and with Ryan Moore booked to ride the Le Havre colt, the Hannon/Moore bandwagon should prevail again. Of the other pair, AQABAH is preferred to Zaaki.
Favourite factor: Six of the last eight favourites have prevailed in this Listed event, whilst eight of the 12 renewals contested during the last 13 years were also secured by market leaders.
1.50: Three-year-olds have won 16 of the last 20 renewals (including 14 of the last 16) and with 10 of the 13 declarations representing the junior vintage this time around (77% of the field), the result should revert back to type after last year’s trend buster. Middle to high numbers have generally held the edge down the years and taking all the stats and facts into account, my short list comprises of TOMYRIS (drawn 12/13), TALLAYEB (8) and UNFORGETTABLE FILLY (7), a trio which should gain a couple of Placepot positions between them. The draw numbers went base over apex on the only ‘recent’ occasion the race was contested under good to soft decisions but that said, just eight runners took part on the relevant day.
Favourite factor: Four favourites have won this race in the last 20 years whilst eight market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.
Draw factor (seven furlongs):
6-7 (7 ran-good)
4-15-8 (20 ran-good)
9-4-16 (15 ran-good)
3-6-1 (8 ran-good to soft)
16-17-1 (18 ran-good)
7-6-1 (11 ran-good)
10-7-9 (13 ran-good)
5-6-1 (10 ran-good to firm)
12-9-6 (12 ran-soft)
3-8-9 (15 ran-good to firm)
4-6-10 (9 ran-good)
7-2-13 (15 ran-good to firm)
6-16-19 (17 ran-good)
8-10-7 (15 ran-good to firm)
14-12-13 (13 ran-good)
13-7-3 (11 ran-good to firm)
9-5-2 (11 ran-good to firm)
5-4-11 (14 ran-good)
Record of the course winner in the second race:
2.25: HEARTACHE is a filly of outstanding ability and the Queen Mary winner can be considered unlucky not to have kept her unbeaten record intact on the continent the last day. Bumped leaving the stalls, Clive Cox’s Kyllachy filly never quite recovered from the early setback, though Clive’s February foal is expected to bounce back successfully today. That said, the declaration of HAVANA GREY sets up a fascinating clash as Karl Burke’s colt ‘only’ has to give the filly three pounds. Speculative investors might offer YOGI’S GIRL a chance of beating the other six horses home, albeit at a respectable distance behind the front pair.
Favourite factor: Nine favourites have won during the last 20 years, whilst 10 of the 22 market leaders secured toteplacepot positions. Only one the last 75 horses sent off at 12/1 or more has won this race when sent off at odds of 12/1 or more, statistics which equate to a level stake loss of 58 points.
Draw factor (five furlongs):
10-3-11 (11 ran-good)
3-6-1 (9 ran-good)
3-14-1 (14 ran-good)
3-2 (7 ran-good soft)
7-1-6 (9 ran-good)
2-4-1 (10 ran-good)
2-11-10 (12 ran-good)
9-2-4 (10 ran-good to firm)
11-7-6 (12 ran-soft)
4-3-6 (8 ran-good to firm)
6-9-4 (9 ran-heavy)
7-3-12 (11 ran-firm)
6-12-3 (13 ran-good)
8-7-1 (14 ran-good to firm)
13-12-14 (13 ran-good)
3-6-2 (11 ran-good to firm)
13-7-9 (14 ran-good to firm)
2-8-6 (13 ran-good)
5-1 (7 ran-good to firm)
3.00: 16 of the last 20 winners have carried weights of 9-5 or less, whilst ten three-year-olds have won during the study period. The only junior raider (Wall Of Fire) won last year and Mark Johnston (TIME TO STUDY) is seemingly the only trainer who reads this column! Please take that last comment with the proverbial ‘pinch of salt’ but you hopefully catch my drift. Last Saturday’s ‘endurance test’ at Haydock on poor ground should have set up TIME TO STUDY enough to snare this prize, with the general offer of 7/2 making plenty of appeal this morning. PENGLAI PAVILION is feared most.
Favourite factor: Six clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last 20 years, though only four of the other eighteen favourites claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.
3.40: Six-year-olds have won three of the last seven renewals of the Doncaster Cup (lone raider Quest for more finished second twelve months ago) and this year’s two representatives MONTALY and FUN MAC are the first pair to be added into my Placepot permutation this time around. The pair are listed in order of preference with Andrerw Balding’s first named raider holding definite chance from a win perspective. As much as I love this St Leger meeting however, nothing would prize cash out of my pocket aside from a Placepot wager as far as this event is concerned. Other each way types such as SHE IS NO LADY and HIGH JINX add plenty of interest.
Favourite factor: Six market leaders have won the Doncaster Cup since 1998, whilst 11 of the other 14 favourites during the study period finished out of the frame.
Record of the course winners in the Doncaster Cup:
1/3--Clever Cookie (soft)
1/4--High Jinx (good to soft)
2/2—Skeikhzayedroad (2 x good)
1/1—Thomas Hobson (soft)
4.05: John Gosden has been the trainer to follow on the third day of the meeting in recent years and having declared two runners in the race, the chances of TIFFIN TOP and MILITARY LAE are respected. That said, Charlie Appleby’s Dubawi colt GHAIYYATH comes into his first race with a tall reputation, confirmed by his entries in the ‘Royal Lodge’ and the Racing Post Trophy later this season.
Favourite factor: Three of the last ten favourites have won during which time, six winners have scored at a top price of 4/1. That said, the other four winners scored at 16/1, 14/1-12/1 and 10/1.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Doncaster card on Friday – followed by their number of winners on Town Moor on the corresponding day in recent years:
3 runners—Charlie Appleby
3—John Gosden (5)
3—Richard Hannon (2)
2—Hugo Palmer (1)
2—Sir Mark Prescott (1)
2—Roger Varian (3)
+ 34 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
75 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Chester: £21.60 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 placed
Salisbury: £31.10 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced
Sandown: £49.60 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced