SANDOWN – FEBRUARY 16
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £1,261.20 (6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Sandown:
Leg 1 (1.20): 2 (Chieftan’s Choice), 4 (Balibour) & 9 (Mr Fickle)
Leg 2 (1.50): 1 (Movie Legend), 3 (Tara Bridge) & 2 (Ubaltique)
Leg 3 (2.25): 5 (Midnight Tune), 4 (Melangerie) & 1 (All Currencies)
Leg 4 (3.00): 1 (Orbasa) & 6 (Midnight Monty)
Leg 5 (3.30): 4 (Et Moi Alors) & 3 (Notre Ami)
Leg 6 (4.05): 1 (Aubusson), 6 (Muckle Roe) & 2 (Bally Longford)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.20: It appears that Gary Moore is becoming increasingly frustrated with his poor Sandown form of late, having declared seven runners on the card. Following his amazing season a couple of years ago when recording a ratio of 10/25 at the track, Gary has subsequently managed just three winners via 48 runners and I have a sneaking suspicion that MR FICKLE will outrun his 18/1 odds (at the time of writing) this afternoon. That said, more logical winners include last year’s gold medallist CHIEFTAN’S CHOICE and possibly BALIBOUR. This is a slightly speculative trio with which to go to war but with some half decent Placepot permutations having been landed of late, I’m up for the fight!
Favourite factor: Both favourites had finished out with the washing before last year’s 3/1 market leader (Chieftan’s Choice) obliged.
Record of the course winner in the opening contest:
1/3—Chieftan’s choice (soft)
1/3—Mr Fickle (soft)
1.50: Six of the last seven winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-5 whereby Un Beau Roman is eliminated from my inquiries at the first hurdle. The other three runners cannot (safely) be left out of the (win only) Placepot mix but for the record, the trio is listed in order of preference as MOVIE LEGEND, TARA BRIDGE and UBALTIQUE.
Favourite factor: Six renewals have passed since the last favourite prevailed, albeit the top priced winner was returned at just 15/2 during the period. Just three of the eight favourites secured Placepot positions in those six years.
2.25: It’s not often that you find Nicky Henderson sending just one runner to a top track like Sandown but that is the scenario in place here, with the champion trainer having declared his hat trick seeker MELANGERIE. Gary Moore saddles ALL CURRENCIES with a Placepot chance at the very least, whilst my trio against the field in completed by MIDNIGHT TUNE for Antony Honeyball who is enjoying a season to remember. Yes, Anthony’s Midnight Legend mare disappointed the last day but stock from this sire bounce back more often than not and Aidan Coleman’s mount is fully expected to be in the thick of things when the whips are raised at the business end of the contest.
Favourite factor: The four market leaders thus far have claimed three gold medals and one of the silver variety alongside Placepot positions.
3.00: Eight-year-olds have won four of the last six contests and I could envisage MIDNIGHT MONTY going close to extending that good run, though ORBASA and last year’s winner RATHLIN ROSE will certainly make Jamie Snowden’s representative pull out all the stops if the Midnight Legend gelding scores. Paul Nicholls has hired the services of the most experienced rider (Jody Sole) in the field for ORBASA, who attempts to become Paul’s fourth winner of the race in the last eleven years. RATHLIN ROSE boasts a chance for all to see though at the odds on offer at the time of writing, I marginally prefer the other pair to David Pipe’s projected market leader.
Favourite factor: Five of the last six favourites (all winners of their respective events) have finished in the frame, as have eight market leaders during the last eleven years.
Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:
2/2—Rathlin Rose (soft)
3.30: For all that ET MOI ALORS was running a fine (debut) race at Ascot on soft ground recently before capitulating at the final flight, I cannot (for the life of me) envisage hefty investors piling into the 3/10 odds of offer, especially if you take a glance at the favourite stats below! Yes, Gary Moore should be back on the winners list at Sandown but at the odds on offer when compiling this column, it comes as no surprise to witness a little overnight support for NOTRE AMI.
Favourite factor: Six favourites have won during the last eleven years, with eight gold medallists have been returned at a top price of 3/1. That said, last year’s 1/7 market leader was turned over despite completing the course on behalf of trainer Nicky Henderson.
4.05: The ten winners during the last eleven years have carried eleven stones or more, though only dual course winner Vino Griego ‘fails to make the cut’ on this occasion. AUBUSSON, MUCKLE ROE and BALLY LONGFORD all boast each way claims on the best on their form and are entered into the Placepot permutation. Step Back offers similar claims but not at 5/2 from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: Seven of the last ten winners have scored at a top price of 5/1, statistics which include three successful market leaders.
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
2/7—Vino Griego (good & good to soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Friday – followed by their seasonal ratios (in brackets) at the track this season and their five year figures + profits/losses accrued on both counts:
7 runners—Gary Moore (1/19 – loss of 10 points) – 22/107 +77
3—Emma Lavelle (1/3 – loss of 1) – 4/27 – loss of 4
3—Lucy Wadham (0/3) – 6/28 +9
2—Colin Tizzard (1/13 – loss of 9) – 5/50 – loss of 40
2—Kevin Frost (First runners at Sandown this season) – 1/2 +2
2—Nick Gifford (0/1) – 3/19 +4
2—Chris Gordon (0/3) – 1/27 – loss of 1
2—Paul Nicholls (3/23 – loss of 8) – 27/179 – loss of 20
2—Jamie Snowden ((First runners at Sandown this season) – 0/11
2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (2/10 +8) – 7/52 +19
2—Venetia Williams (1/5 – loss of 1) – 9/95 – loss of 53
+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
55 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Fakenham: £4,824.40 – 6 favourites – No winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced
Newcastle: £55.20 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 2 unplaced