CHELTENHAM – MARCH 16
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £1,676.90 (6 favourites – 1 winner & 5 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are listed in brackets:
Race 1: 50.1% units went through – 5/2* - 7/1 – 10/1
Race 2: 13.2 % of the remaining units when through – 20/1 -25/1 – 50/1 -10/1 (5/1)
Race 3: 24.4% of the remaining units went through – 16/1 – 8/1- 13/2 (13/8)
Race 4: 41.2% of the remaining units went through – 7/1 – 18/1 – 7/2 (3/1)
Race 5: 22.1% of the remaining units went through – 16/1 – 7/2 – 100/1 (11/8)
Race 6: 29.5% of the units secured the dividend – 12/1 – 25/1 – 9/1 – 13/2 (9/2)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Cheltenham:
Leg 1 (1.30): 8 (Apple’s Shakira) & 4 (Redicean)
Leg 2 (2.10): 12 (Brelade), 13 (Meri Devie), 14 (Whiskey Sour) & 16 (Flying Tiger)
Leg 3 (2.50): 18 (Santini), 13 (Ok Corral) & 5 (Chris’s Dream)
Leg 4 (3.30): 9 (Might Bite), 14 (Road To Respect) & 11 (Native River)
Leg 5 (4.10): 23 (Wonderful Dream), 6 (Foxrock) & 19 (Virak)
Leg 6 (4.50): 20 (Melrose Boy) & 2 (Sire Du Berlais)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.30: Nicky Henderson's raider APPLE’S SHAKIRA commands plenty of attention, given that Nicky will have literally had dozens of horses that he could have considered for this event at the start of the season. The fact that Nicky has saddled more winners of this race (six in total) than any other trainer adds confidence, especially with the Seven Barrows maestro having secured three of the last eight contests. There is also the point to be made that Nicky served up a 1-2-3 in the race three years ago! Others to consider in the opening event on the last day of the Festival include REDICEAN and to a fashion Sayo, who has plenty of money in the (realistic) queue on the exchanges given his 50/1 quote at the time of writing. Punters should beware if Apple’s Shakira obliges because the favourite won the first race twelve months ago before all five market leaders finished out of the frame in the subsequent Placepot events; hence the good dividend!
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won during the study period which is a decent return considering the competitive nature of this event. Twelve market leaders have finished in the frame.
2.10: Although ‘only’ backed up by eleven placed representatives in the last eighteen renewals, five-year-olds hold centre stage having won ten contests during the study period. The fact that 45 of the last 57 winners were five or six years of age should also sway you towards younger horses! Horses carrying weights of 11-1 or less have won fourteen of the last nineteen renewals and putting the stats and facts together, my ‘short list’ consists of the four horses towards the bottom of the list (accordingly), namely BRELADE, MERI DEVIE, WHISKEY D=SOUR and FLYING TIGER. If the weight trends are breached this time around, the joker in the pack could prove to be BLEU ET ROUGE.
Favourite factor: The last eleven winners have scored at 50/1--20/1--20/1--20/1—20/1--14/1-12/1--11/1--10/1--10/1—8/1, though two of the previous three contests were won by joint favourites. Only four of the last eighteen favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include two winners.
2.50: Six-year-olds have won six of the last eleven renewals of the 'Albert Bartlett' and last year’s result (vintage representatives filled the frame) typified the trend whereby SANTINI and CHRIS’S DREAM are the first names on the team sheet. Nicky Henderson thinks a great deal of the first named raider though that said, I have been waiting for stable companion OK CORRAL to run again having been notified some time ago by a good judge that there is a big race waiting for the eight-year-old one day, as was suggested a few years back. Could this be the relevant event?
Favourite factor: Eight of the fourteen favourites have secured Placepot positions to date, statistics which include four winners.
3.30: I started last year’s analysis of the race by suggesting that the favourite looked oh so vulnerable to others in the field and so it proved though that is not the case this year, providing that MIGHT BITE heads the betting by the time that flag fall arrives. I have been saying for quite a few years now that the Gold Cup of late is nothing but a decent non-handicap and that remains the case again, unless Nicky Henderson’s representative is as good as some of his performances have indicated. The ground is the worry of course, whereby I have to add a few others in the Placepot mix, namely ROAD TO RESPECT and NATIVE RIVER. Jessica Harrington laded the race last year (massive double on the day) and her inmate OUR DUKE receives the reserve nomination this time around.
Favourite factor: Eight of the last fifteen favourites have won the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Twelve of the twenty jollies have secured Placepot positions during the study period.
4.10: WONDERFUL DREAM finished second in the race last year at odds of 7/2 whereby this morning’s 7/1 quote makes for interesting (Plaepot) reading at the very least. Stable companions VIRAK and UNIONISTE are others to consider alongside FOXROCK who looks a typically lively Irish raider from what I have witnessed from Alan Fleming’s raider thus far.
Favourite factor: Five favourites have won via the last nineteen contests whilst the figure increases to ten when applying the first three in the market ruling.
4.50: Six-year-olds have won five of the nine renewals, with MELROSE BOY and SIRE DU BERLAIS making most appeal this time around. I have only left myself two options given the competitive nature of the previous races on the card, otherwise FLAWLESS ESCAPE would have been included in the mix.
Favourite factor: Two of the nine favourites to date secured toteplacepot positions (one winner).
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Leading trainers this week at Cheltenham with runners on the final day of the Festival:
7/42--Willie Mullins (25/1, 20/1, 12/1, 9/2, 9/2, 5/6* & 4/7*) - 20 runners today
6/22--Gordon Elliott (33/1, 7/1, 6/1, 5/1*, 4/1 & 8/11*) - 11 runners
2/23--Nicky Henderson (Evens* & 4/6*) - 11 runners
1/5--Nick Williams (5/1*) - 2 runners
1/6--Warren Greatrex (8/1) - 1 runner
1/11--Tom George (9/1) - 1 runner
1/12--Henry De Bromhead (8/1) - 3 runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Fakenham: £27.30 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 2 unplaced
Lingfield (A/W): £45.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Wolverhampton: £33.20 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced