NEWBURY - AUGUST 18
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £117.50 (6 favourites - 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Newbury:
Leg 1 (1.40): 5 (Merlin Magic) & 1 (Ateem)
Leg 2 (2.10): 5 (Jawwaal) & 7 (Qaroun)
Leg 3 (2.40): 6 (Kingston Kurrajong), 9 (Pursuing Steed), 10 (Dragons Voice) & 13 (Mr Tyrell)
Leg 4 (3.10): 2 (Machine Learner) & 7 (Great Sound)
Leg 5 (3.45): 9 (Out Of The Flames), 11 (Sankari Royale) & 6 (Misty Spirit)
Leg 6 (4.20): 3 (Storm Over) & 7 (Madame Bounty)
Suggested stake: 192 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.40: ‘Team Hannon’ have secured three of the last eight renewals of this event and ATEEM is preferred to Robinson Crusoe of the relevant two raiders on this occasion. Richard’s Dark Angel representative will not mind any rain that creeps down the M4 corridor this morning as I can report that there are some lively showers hitting Bristol towards dawn. That said, MERLIN MAGIC should take the beating after a highly promising effort at Ascot on her first day at school. There is every chance that Jeff Smith’s famous purple and light blue silks will be seen in the area reserved for winners later today. BLUE LAUREATE is the other potential winner in the field from my viewpoint. It could a decent newcomer to land the spoils in this company.
Favourite factor: 11 of the 14 favourites have finished in the money to date, statistics which include eight winners. Market leaders come to the gig on a six timer.
Draw factor (seven furlongs):
4-12-9 (13 ran-good to firm)
2-5-7 (11 ran-soft)
9-8-3 (10 ran (soft)
3-4-7 (13 ran-soft)
4-11-5 (11 ran-good)
11-10-7 (12 ran-good)
13-2-12 (11 ran-good)
1-4-9 (13 ran-good)
6-9-5 (15 ran-good)
3-1-8 (15 ran-good)
1-7-6 (11 ran-good)
8-3-2 (12 ran-good to firm)
7-5-12 (11 ran-good to firm)
11-6-4 (11 ran-good to firm)
2.10: Richard Hannon’s juveniles look set to take a back seat in what is another decent looking contest on the eight race Newbury card. JAWWAAL and QAROUN look set to lock horns here at the business end of the contest and if there is a clear cut winner between them today, that individual could well be worth following for some time to come.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening event on the card, whereby the same favourite/draw stats apply; 11 of the 14 favourites have finished in the money to date, statistics which include eight winners. Market leaders come to the gig on a six timer.
2.40: I nominated last year’s 10/1 winner (Wind In My Sails) as the each way interest in the contest and that ‘honour’ is bestowed upon KINGSTON KURRAJONG on this occasion. Michael Attwater’s Authorized gelding is invariably in and around the action at the furlong pole and Kieren Fox’s mount deserves to get his head in front where it matters most after a string of consistent efforts. Four-year-olds have won both renewals, whilst horses carrying 9-2 or more have secured five of the six available Placepot positions thus far. ‘KK’ qualifies on both fronts, with connections probably having most to fear from the likes of PURSUING STEED, DRAGONS VOICE and MR TYRELL this time around.
Favourite factor: All three favourites (via just the two renewals0 have finished out with the washing thus far.
Course winners in the third event:
1/2—Harlequin Striker (soft)
1/8—Cricklewood Green (good)
1/1—Pursuing Steed (good to firm)
3.10: The fact that three-year-olds have not always contested this event suggests that vintage raiders have done well to record six victories during the last 15 years. That said, four-year-olds have secured five of the last ten contests whereby MACHINE LEARNER is the call with Ryan Moore booked to ride. Junior raiders to consider are GREAT SOUND and COMRADE CONRAD, the pair being listed in order of preference.
Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed in the last 18 years (one non runner--withdrawn before a new market could be formed), whilst eight of the 18 jollies have secured toteplacepot positions in the process.
Course winners in the fourth contest on the card:
1/1—Poyle Thomas (good)
3.45: David Elsworth has a good chance on the card with Merlin Magic as already offered, whilst I would not be too quick to rule a line through his 25/1 chance MISTY SPIRIT either. David’s recent Leicester winner looks a progressive type who could make nonsense of his odds given luck in running. That said, Ryan Moore has plenty of decent chances at the meeting today, with OUT OF THE FLAMES being one of many with gold medal claims. My trio against the field is completed by SANKARI ROYALE who has claims having beaten one of the also-rans in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot earlier this year. The reserve nomination is awarded to ONE MINUTE.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have prevailed in the last 20 years, with eleven of the market leaders having secured toteplacepot positions during the last seventeen renewals.
Draw factor (five furlongs):
1-6-3 (11 ran-good to firm)
12-8-1 (12 ran-soft)
2-3-5 (9 ran-soft)
6-4-5 (8 ran-good)
5-3-6 (10 ran-good)
2-5-1 (12 ran-good)
7-11-10 (12 ran-good)
3-7-11 (13 ran-good to firm)
3-1-2 (18 ran-good to soft)
5-2-6 (10 ran-good)
5-6-1 (10 ran-good to soft)
3-4-6 (11 ran-good to firm)
11-4-12 (12 ran-good)
4-1-3 (10 ran-good to firm)
6-5-1 (9 ran-good to firm)
11-13-10 (14 ran-good to firm)
5-2-10 (10 ran-good to firm)
8-7-4 (8 ran-good)
4.20: Whilst admitting that I would like the ‘dead eight’ field to remain intact from a confidence viewpoint, the likes of STORM OVER and MADAME BOUNTY really should secure the Placepot dividend between them if we are live going into the last leg of our favourite wager.
Favourite factor: Only one of the three favourites (via two renewals) has finished in the frame thus far, without winning the relevant contest last year.
Course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/1—Madame Bounty (good to firm)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers who have saddled more than one winner on the corresponding Newbury card on Friday during the last five years – alongside the starting prices of their gold medallists and number of runners today:
3 winners—Andrew Balding (3/1*, 9/4* & 2/5*) – 2 runners today
3 winners—Luca Cumani (7/4*, 6/4* & 11/8*) – 2 runners today
3 winners—Richard Hannon (11/4*, 11/4* & 6/4*) – 9 runners today
2 winners—William Haggas (5/1 & 11/10*) – 6 runners today
2 winners—Jonathan Portman (12/1 & 5/2*) – 1 runner today
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Catterick: £65.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced
Newmarket: £147.00 – 7 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 5 unplaced
Nottingham: £344.30 – 8 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 4 unplaced
Wolverhampton: There is no history relating to to this meeting