Placepot Pointers

Placepot Pointers – Friday 18th May

YORK – MAY 18 

 

Corresponding toteplacepot dividends for the last seven years:

2017: £106.10 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

2016: £217.60 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

2015: £311.00 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)

2014: £16.00 (6 favourites: 4 winners & 2 placed)

2013: £117.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2012: £12,695.00 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2011: £176.30 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

Average dividend: £1,948.46 - Favourites stats - 44 in total - 17 winners - 11 placed - 16 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 51.8% units went through – 4/1** - 4/1** - 16/1

Race 2: 40.8% of the remaining units when through – 5/1 & 5/2 (9/4)

Race 3: 45.3% of the remaining units went through – 11/4* - 13/2 – 40/1

Race 4: 77.85% of the remaining units went through – 12/1 – 3/1 – 15/8*

Race 5: 46.5% of the remaining units went through – 4/1* - 5/1 – 8/1

Race 6: 19.8% of the units secured the dividend – 16/1 – 14/1 – 7/1 (9/2)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at York: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 10 (No Lippy), 3 (Carrie’s Vision) & 16 (Strings Of Life)

Leg 2 (2.55): 5 (Sheilha Reika) & 6 (Threading)

Leg 3 (3.30): 7 (Stradivarius) & 1 (Desert Skyline)

Leg 4 (4.05): 5 (Valcartier), 3 (Kings Gift) & 9 (Master Carpenter)

Leg 5 (4.35): 8 (Crafty Madam), 3 (Pepita) & 4 (Ifubelieveindreams)

Leg 6 (3.05): 1 (Koditime), 5 (Areen Faisal) & 7 (Marnie James)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.20: Eleven of the thirteen winners have scored at a top price of 7/1 with the likes of NO LIPPY and CARRIE’S VISION making plenty of appeal this time around towards the top of the market.  Mark Johnston appears to have a typical MJ streetfighter in NO LIPPY who took control early doors in the ‘Lily Agnes’ last week and was not for passing.  This is a tougher assignment obviously, though there is every indication that Mark’s Oasis Dream filly can land the hat trick en route to even better things later in the season.  The other potential winner in the field from my viewpoint is STRINGS OF LIFE in an absorbing start to the final day of the meeting.

Favourite factor: Six of the 15 favourites (thirteen renewals) have obliged to date, whilst ten market leaders secured Placepot positions.

Draw factor (five furlongs – most recent renewal listed first):

9-2-7 (13 ran-soft)

3-2-4 (11 ran-good to firm)

7-2-6 (11 ran-good to firm)

11-10-7 (13 ran-good)

6-8-2 (11 ran-soft)

9-1-6 (11 ran-good)

7-6-5 (9 ran-good to firm)

9-6 (7 ran-good to firm)

9-11-12 (12 ran-good to soft)

9-10-7 (9 ran-good to firm)

9-6-1 (10 ran-good)

5-6 (7 ran-soft)

4-1-3 (9 ran-good to soft)

 

2.55: Different trainers have claimed victories via twelve renewals during the last thirteen years which does little for confidence, especially with weight and vintage trends not affecting this contest.  The opening line of the stats immediately below suggest the race could develop between the market leaders SHEIKHA REIKA and THREADING, the horses being listed in that order via slightly more strength on the exchanges overnight for the first named Roger Varian trained representative.  Those looking for an alternative each way play (though this is a ‘short field’ event) could do worse than consider the overnight ‘rag’ in the contest’ namely JULIET FOXTRET at around the 12/1 mark.  New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runners races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: 25 of the last 28 horses to have claimed Placepot positions have been returned at odds of 9/1 or less, with nine of the thirteen favourites finishing in the frame (four winners).

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

2-5 (6 ran-soft)

1-7 (7 ran-good to firm)

3-7-4 (10 ran-good to firm)

12-3-1 (14 ran-good)

2-4-5 (9 ran-soft)

5-3 (7 ran-good)

9-3-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

3-1 (5 ran-good to firm)

10-7 (7 ran-good to soft)

7-3 (7 ran-good to firm)

2-5 (5 ran-good)

5-4 (6 ran-soft)

York record of the two course winners in the second race:

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1/1—Awesome Tank (good)

1/1—Threading (good to soft)

 

3.30: Regular readers will know that I am not a fan of ‘cup races’ (thoroughbreds were built for speed rather than endurance from my viewpoint) and I will simply be looking to get through the Placepot leg without placing another wager. The last time I backed a winner in this type of race was when in short trousers, with a man in a shady raincoat and trilby noting the name of the said beast on a cigarette packet!  Upwards and onward by suggesting that STRADIVARIUS has plenty to offer by way of past results, whilst those of you looking for an each way/Placepot interest in the contest might consider the likes of DESERT SKYLINE and CALL TO MIND.

Favourite factor: 13 of the 21 recent favourites have finished in the frame, whilst seven market leaders have secured the gold rosette during the study period.

York record of runners in the 'Yorkshire Cup':

4/12—Clever Cookie (good to firm – good – good to soft – soft)

1/1—Max Dynamite (good to soft)

 

4.05: Four-year-olds have won 13 of the last 20 renewals and vintage representatives came to the gig on a seven-timer in 2013 with relevant horses having secured 14 of the previous 19 available Placepot positions. Vintage representatives produced a clean sweep in Placepot terms two years ago and the pick only four 'junior runners' this time around should prove to be VALCARTIER and KINGS GIFT.  That all said, there is the small matter of MASTER CARPENTER having been declared to attempt to defend his crown successfully after blowing his rivals away in no uncertain fashion twelve months ago.  Don’t listen to too much talk of that race having been contested of soft ground, as Rod Millman’s Mastercraftsman raider has won on the course under good conditions as well. Carrying two pounds less on this occasion, Red’s seven-year-old demands Placepot respect at the very least, especially as 7/1 was still on offer at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Twelve of the 23 favourites have secured Placepot positions in recent times, though only three market leaders have won down the relevant years.

Draw factor (ten and a half furlongs):

5-3-6-19 (20 ran-soft)

4-9-2 (13 ran-good)

18-14-12-5 (18 ran-good)

17-16-8-14 (18 ran-soft)

3-6-11 (13 ran-good to soft)

5-14-6 (14 ran-good)

17-5-1-4 (20 ran-good)

12-4-5 (11 ran-good)

5-3-6 (12 ran-good to firm)

8-10-4 (12 ran-good to firm)

16-8-11-14 (17 ran-good)

5-14-2 (14 ran-good to soft)

11-6-3 (12 ran-soft)

7-5-10 (14 ran-good to soft)

10-4-12 (15 ran-good to firm)

2-7-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

10-1-9-3 (17 ran-good to firm)

1-6-3 (8 ran-firm)

5-8-12 (12 ran-soft)

2-7-1 (13 ran-good)

York record of the course winner in the field:

2/4—Master Carpenter (good & soft)

 

4.35: Ryan Moore has a number of each way chances on the card, arguably none more so than CRAFTY MADAM in this contest.  Given Ryan’s 6/18 record for Clive Cox down the years, CRAFTY MADAM is the first name on the team sheet ahead of other PEPITA and a potential each way player in IFUBELIEVEINDREAMS.

Favourite factor: Three of the four market leaders have claimed Placepot positions by winning their respective events at 4/1, 7/2 & 11/4.  Detectives are still searching for the unplaced favourite that was sunk without trace.

York record of the course winner in the fifth event on the card:

1/6—Dark Intention (good to soft)

 

5.05: 23/38 horses to have gained Placepot positions (via eleven renewals to date) have carried weights of 8-13 or more, with six qualifying runners to consider this time around (jockey claims are taken into account) in a sixteen strong field, potentially at least. KODITIME (another Cox/Moore runner on the card), AREEN FAISAL and MARNIE JAMES get the vote.

Favourite factor: Only two of the ten market leaders have secured Placepot positions to date (one winner), taking into account that the 2012 favourite was withdrawn before a new market could be formed.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

10-1-14 (12 ran-soft)

15-9-3 (13 ran-good to firm)

10-8-5-2 (18 ran-good to firm)

8-2-9-12 (19 ran-good)

17-18-14-9 (17 ran-soft)

17-4-5-6 (18 ran-good)

4-6-3-16 (19 ran-good to firm)

1-12-6 (11 ran-good to firm)

15-3-5 (13 ran-good to soft)

2-5-10 (11 ran-good to firm)

12-3-10 (11 ran-good)

York record of the two course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Marnie James (good to firm)

1/3—Angel Force (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

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