Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £10.50 (7 favourites: 5 winners & 2 placed)
1.30: Dan Skelton saddles two of the three runners in this event though if truth be told, if the old rules were still in place relating to 'fallers', WILLOW'S SAVIOUR could have been remounted at least once and still won this disappointing contest. A winner of four of his last five races, Dan's nine-year-old was only an 11/2 chance when outpointed in the Grade 1 'Henry VIII' Novice Chase at Sandown in December. That contest is a far cry from this spit and sawdust event which will take little winning.
Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Fakenham.
2.00: The last 11 winners have carried 11-5 or less, stats which led to me to select last year's 8/1 winner Don't Call Me Oscar. Eight-year-olds have won three of the last five contests and putting the stats and facts together produces a short list of HENRY OLIVER and BERNISDALE from three horses in the field who possessed tick in both of the trend boxes. NEWORLD fails to qualify on either count but this is such a poor contest, which suggests that the course and distance winner will not be far away at the jamstick.
Favourite factor: Six of the 12 market leaders during the period have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two winners.
Fakenham record of course winners in the second race on the card:
2.30: Six-year-olds have won six of the last seven renewals and one of the three vintage representatives could dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest, namely WORK IN PROGRESS. Dan Skelton's Westerner gelding drops down a grade having contested his last two races in Class 2 events when sent off at 9/2 and 6/4*. The fact that WORK IN PROGRESS failed to win either event is not really the point, as connections of many of Friday's rivals could only dream of their representatives competing at the level at such short prices. EXPEDITE and MCKENZIE'S FRIEND were both pulled up on their last appearances but has shown decent form before those lapses.
Favourite factor: Seven of the 10 races during the last 11 years have been secured by market leaders. 11 of the 12 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions.
3.05: Colin Tizzard's MARDEN COURT remains a maiden after 12 attempts but there has been plenty of decent efforts posted by Paddy Brennan's mount in the past and there is an argument that the six-year-old would not be winning out of turn. GAMAIN and THE ITALIAN YOB are others to consider in an extremely moderate contest.
Favourite factor: Search parties were still out looking for the two beaten favourites before third market leader obliged 12 months ago.
3.40: All six winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-2 whereby the bottom two horses look to have plenty to do from a win perspective. The stats work out in the toteplacepot division as well as 10 of the 14 available positions have been secured by horses carrying the relevant weights. The pick of the six runners in this event should prove to be LE LEGRO and MAJOR MILBOURNE, Both horses have dropped down to marks that suggest they should be winning again soon.
Favourite factor: Four of the six favourites (winners of their respective events) have secured toteplacepot positions thus far.
4.10: PACHA DU POLDER looks to have this race at his mercy, sitting 11 pounds clear of his nearest rival VASCO DU MEE. This pair (in turn) are well clear of the other four contenders in the contest. Surely only a lack of race fitness can stop the first named Paul Nicholls representative who on his penultimate start, was sent off at just 7/1 to win the 'Aintree Foxhunteres' event at the Grand National meeting in April.
Favourite factor: The toteplacepot finale is another new race on the Fakenham programme.
Fakenham record of course winners in the sixth race:
All references to placed horses on these pages are based on an exact science regarding general place terms offered by bookmakers and totepool.com
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Fakenham card on Friday:
1--S R Andrews
1--Miss Sarah Rippon
43 declared runners