NEWBURY – DECEMBER 1
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £229.40 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Newbury:
Leg 1 (12.20): 13 (World Premier), 3 (Black Op) & 11 (Simply The Betts)
Leg 2 (12.50): 2 (Hell’s Kitchen), 6 (Bigmarte) & 1 (Crievehill)
Leg 3 (1.20): 8 (Santini) & 5 (Chef Des Obeaux)
Leg 4 (1.50): 4 (Willoughby Court) & 5 (Yanworth)
Leg 5 (2.25): 1 (O O Seven), 8 (Icing On The Cake) & 5 (Space Oddity)
Leg 6 (3.00): 1 (Unowwhatimeanharry) & 6 (Colin’s Sister)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.20: Four-year-olds have won the last seven renewals (and nine of the last eleven), stats which go against Lostintranslation, however promising Colin Tizzard’s Flemenfirth gelding appears to be. I will adhere to my self-confessed ‘anorak’ tendency to stick with the figures by suggesting that the likes of WORLD PREMIER, BLACK OP and SIMPLY THE BETTS offer better value accordingly, win, lose or draw. The trio is listed in order of preference in the dead of night, especially with Ben Pauling offering such a decent ratio at this venue as you can confirm towards the bottom of this analysis. Whatever the outcome, this is a fine event with which to open a truly fabulous card, especially for a Friday! There is no ‘stand out price’ at the time of writing. If you like the thought of having ‘stand out’ prices added to the service on a daily basis, perhaps you would be kind enough to let Matt know at your earliest convenience. If I don’t receive a report that the service is popular, I will drop the additional information after the weekend. Al prices offered were available at the time of writing today, whereby you might want to set your alarm clock a little earlier than usual this weekend!
Favourite factor: All eleven winners recently have scored at a top price of 8/1, statistics which include five successful market leaders. Eight of the last nine favourites have secured Placepot positions.
12.50: Six-year-olds have won five of the six renewals thus far and with HELL’S KITCHEN and BIGMARTE representing the vintage this time around, the ‘edge’ might be extended still further. That said, there is plenty of money creeping in for CREIEVHILL as I pen the Friday column which makes for interesting reading, especially with Nigel Twiston-Davies having won with six of his last 26 runners. The ratio is hardly “red hot” as implied in the trade press, though 20 points of level stake profit during the period would have kept Nigel’s supporters happy. Stand out price at the time of writing; 10/1 Crievehill (Bet365).
Favourite factor: Three of the seven market leaders having finished in the frame with two of their number winning their respective events at 5/2 and 11/4**.
Record of the course winners in the second race:
1/2—Dusky Legend (good)
1/2—Hell’s Kitchen (soft)
1.20: Nicky Henderson has saddled two of the three winners of this event thus far, having snared the silver medal via an 8/1 chance on the other occasion. For the record, Nicky has enjoyed a glittering career and Newbury ranks second in terms of the number of winners (216) he has secured at his local course, with Kempton edging out the stats via ten more gold winners compared to this venue. Nicky has opted to send two inmates with which to go to war here, namely SANTINI and CHEF DES OBEAUX and it would be churlish to ignore their claims given his record in the race to date. There is little to report in a market dominated by the front four in the betting at the time writing.
Favourite factor: Only one of the three favourites have secured a Placepot position to date, when winning the relevant event at odds of 2/1.
1.50: Two of the last six winners (Coneygree and Bobs Worth) have gone on to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup, notwithstanding the victory of Denman in the race back in 2006. Paul Nicholls has secured four of these races during the last twelve years, with the trainer swerving the 2017 Cheltenham Festival in March with last year’s winner Clan Des Obeaux. You might put that name in your notebook (Paul is not rushing his inmate), given that the trainer has offered his five-year-old an entry in a Cheltenham race at their next meeting. Back to today, with Paul having offered the green light to his recent debut chase winner ADRIEN DU PONT. This is a tough ask however with WILLOUGHBY COURT and YANWORTH in the field (offered in order of preference) whereby the ‘trainer trend’ is under pressure this time around. WILLOUGHBY COURT has untapped potential still to be realised I’ll wager which makes for a fascinating clash between the front two in the market. For the record, 28/1 might be as big as Western Miller gets (available at Bet365 & Betfair) this morning, though the real money has appeared in the positive queue on the exchanges for Yanworth which makes 5/6 look a tad big with Ladbrokes/Coral.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won during the last twenty years, whilst the last nineteen winners have scored at 10/1 or less. 18 of the 22 market leaders have secured Placepot positions during the study period.
Record of the course winners in the field:
2.25: Seven-year-olds boast the best recent record in this event having secured five of the last thirteen renewals and I could offer definite Placepot chances to this year’s pair of vintage representatives, namely O O SEVEN and course winner ICING ON THE CAKE. Nicky Henderson’s first named raider has long since been a favourite of mine and his record after a break is worth noting (3/3 for three months of more), whilst ground conditions pose no problems for connections. 9/1 for ICING ON THE CAKE (bet365/Sportingbet/Stan James) might be big enough about Oliver Sherwood’s raider, whilst SPACE ODDITY completes my trio against the other five contenders is an absorbing ‘dead eight’ contest.
Favourite factor: Only one (joint) favourite has prevailed via the last fourteen contests during which time, seven of the fifteen market leaders finished in the frame.
Record of the course winners in the fifth race:
1/1—Willie Boy (good to soft)
1/3—Icing On The Cake (good to soft)
3.00: Big Bucks has been largely responsible for the positive favourite trends listed below, whilst adding the names of Inglis Drever and Baracouda before the Ditcheat based champion took hold of the event, whereby bookmakers have been knocked around the ring as though they faced Cassius Clay/Mohammed Ali in his prime. UNOWHATIMEANHARRY has won 10/11 since Harry Fry took charge of his Sir Harry Lewis gelding, winning this race in facile fashion twelve months ago. I tend to side with horses who contest hurdle races rather than the likes of THISTLECRACK who return to timber following some excellent chasing efforts. The debate about whether chasing dents the speed of hurdlers will rage on for years after this showdown though either way, experience tells me that hurdlers sticking to the smaller obstacles often offers value for money against ‘superstars’ who have returned to the discipline. ‘Superstar’ is the right description of THISTLECRACK and no mistake but with Harry’s raider also having fitness on his side, I’ll oppose the favourite on this occasion. This is anything but a two horse event however, especially with the improving mare COLIN’S SISTER having been declared. 12/1 about Fergal O’Brien’s raider (available with Betfair/Paddy Power/Betvictor) looks fractionally over the top to yours truly, especially with Ladbrokes as short as 8/1, notwithstanding the fact that Fergal’s recent ratio stands at 7/16. If you fancy the favourite in receipt of six pounds from ‘Harry’, Skybet offer even money about Colin Tizzard’s champion which is barely available on the exchanges at the time of writing. Whatever the result – enjoy!
Favourite factor: 11 of the last 18 favourites have won this World Hurdle ‘trial’, whilst 17 of the last 20 winners were returned at 6/1 or less. 15 of the last 20 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.
Record of the course winners in the Pleacepot finale:
2/2—Unowhatimeanharry (2 x soft)
1/1—Beer Goggles (good to soft)
1/2—Taquin Du Seuil (heavy)
2/2—Thistlecrack (good to soft & soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newbury card on Friday – followed by five year stats at the track – level stake profits/losses accrued:
5 runners—Paul Nicholls (24/146 – loss of 21 points)
4—Harry Fry (10/49 – loss of 9 points)
4—Alan King (18/142 – loss of 50 points)
4—Ben Pauling (7/26 +2)
4—Dan Skelton (6/50 – loss of 18 points)
3—Nicky Henderson (38/152 – loss of 17 points)
3—Jonjo O’Neill (7/84 – loss of 1 point)
3—Nigel Twiston-Davies (38/152 – loss of 17 points)
3—Oliver Sherwood (5/38 +2)
2—Tom George (5/61 – loss of 28 points)
2—Fergal O’Brien (5/32 – loss of 9 points)
2—Colin Tizzard (10/71 – loss of 19 points)
2—Harry Whittington (3/18 +8)
+ 17 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
58 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Doncaster: £63.70 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 4 unplaced
Southwell: This is a new meeting
Chelmsford: This is a new meeting