Placepot Pointers

Placepot Pointers – Friday 1st June

EPSOM – JUNE 1

 

Epsom Placepot dividends on Oaks day during the last seven years:

2017: 207.00 (7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)

2016: £339.40 (7 favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced)

2015: £32.90 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 5 placed - 1 unplaced)

2014: £27.10 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

2013: £881.00 (7 favourites: 2 winners & 5 unplaced)

2012: £135.30 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2011: £46.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £238.41 - 46 favourites - 15 winners - 10 placed - 21 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 76.1% units went through – 7/4 & 4/1 (13/8)

Race 2: 33.2% of the remaining units when through – 3/1** - 20/1 – 14/1 (3/1**)

Race 3: 56.3% of the remaining units went through – 9/4* - 9/1 – 11/2

Race 4: 10.4% of the remaining units went through – 10/1 – 16/1 – 14/1 (11/4)

Race 5: 83.0% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 – 8/11* - 16/1

Race 6: 28.6% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1 – 5/2 – 3/1 (2/1)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Epsom: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 4 (Marie’s Diamond), 2 (Itstheonlyway) & 8 (True Belief)

Leg 2 (2.35): 5 (Medburn Dream), 2 (King’s Pavillion) & 8 (Masham Star)

Leg 3 (3.10): 1 (Cracksman) & 2 (Hawksbill)

Leg 4 (3.45): 4 (Ajman King) & 5 (Not So Sleepy)

Leg 5 (4.30): 9 (Wild Illusion) & 1 (Bye Bye Baby)

Leg 6 (5.15): 2 (Aurum), 3 (Kings Shield) & 5 (Rufus King)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: Mark Johnston has secured five renewals of the Listed ‘Woodcote’ event during the last sixteen years and in MARIE’S DIAMOND, the trainer has a horse which could figure prominently again at the very least.  'Team Hannon' have produced three of the last five winners, notwithstanding the fact that one of the team passed the post in front twelve months ago before losing the race on a technicality.  ITSTHEONLYWAY is the stable representative with a chance this time around with the same comment applying to Charlie Appleby’s Excelebration colt TRUE BELIEF.

Favourite factor: Six clear market leaders, two joint and one co favourite have won of late, while 13 of the last 24 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Draw factor (six furlongs – most recent result listed first):

4-5 (7 ran-good)

3-7 (6 ran-soft)

6-2-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

1-8-9 (8 ran-good)

1-6-4 (11 ran-good)

4-8 (7 ran-good to firm)

8-1-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

5-8-6 (9 ran-good to firm)

11-10-3 (12 ran-good)

3-10-2 (10 ran-good)

11-9-1 (13 ran-good)

1-4 (6 ran-good to firm)

2-5-9 (10 ran-good)

1-7-5 (8 ran-good)

3-8-1 (10 ran-good)

5-4 (6 ran-good to soft)

2-8-7 (11 ran-good to firm)

8-2 (7 ran-good)

2-1-7 (9 ran-good to soft)

2-5 (7 ran-good)

 

2.35: Four-year-olds have called the shots in this race, as eleven vintage representatives have won during the last twenty years (including nine of the last sixteen--vintage raiders finished second and third in 2013 at 16/1 & 10/1).  Four-year-olds were returned at 20/1-10/1-33/1 the previous year when finishing immediately behind the five-year-old winner.  This all said, five-year-olds have fought back of late, having claimed four of the last eight contests.  13 of the last 14 winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-4.  Putting the stats and facts together produces a short list of MEDBURN DREAM, KING’S PAVILION and MASHAM STAR.

Favourite factor: Just two favourites have prevailed during the last eleven years though that said, all eleven winners have scored at a top price of 12/1 which in the context of a competitive handicap, is a half decent return for punters.  Seven of the thirteen market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

Draw factor' (eight and a half furlongs):

6-11-7 (12 ran-good)

7-5-3 (12 ran-good to soft)

11-6-12 (12 ran-good)

2-13-1-15 (16 ran-good)

11-6-13 (14 ran-good to soft)

7-4-12-1 (17 ran-good)

4-12-17-15 (18 ran-good)

10-8-6 (14 ran-good)

12-3-8 (9 ran-good)

11-14-10 (14 ran-good)

4-9-14 (14 ran-good to soft)

15-2-1-12 (16 ran-good)

4-1-6 (11 ran-good)

8-11-7 (13 ran-good)

5-1-3-15 (16 ran-good)

1-10-5 (10 ran-soft)

3-9-2 (11 ran-good to firm)

3-10-16 (14 ran-good to soft)

9-8-5 (14 ran-good to soft)

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15-14-7 (14 ran-good)

Epsom record of the two course winners in the second event on the Oaks card:

1/3—King’s Pavilion (good to soft)

1/3—Medburn Dream (soft)

 

3.10: Four-year-olds have secured seven of the last nineteen renewals and with CRACKSMAN looking better than ever, John Gosden’s proven soft ground winner looks home and hosed, despite some serious opposition. With Aidan O’Brien having won eight of the last thirteen renewals of the Coronation Cup, the chance of IDAHO is obviously respected, even though ground conditions seem to have gone against the Galileo raider this time around.  HAWKSBILL therefore jumps into the slot reserved as the ‘main threat’, though Charlie Appleby’s representative is silver medal bound at best from my viewpoint, despite his impressive 3/3 record under soft conditions.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last nineteen favourites have won, whilst fourteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in during the study period.

Draw factor: (twelve furlongs):

3-4-1 (8 ran-good to soft)

5 (4 ran-good to firm)

7-5 (7 ran-good)

3-5 (5 ran-good)

4-6 (6 ran-good to firm)

1-3 (5 ran-good)

8-5-1 (9 ran-good)

8-5-1 (8 ran-good)

7-3-10 (11 ran-good)

2-3 (7 ran-good to soft)

5-2 (6 ran-good)

9-6 (7 ran-good)

5-1-3 (11 ran-good)

4-8-7 (9 ran-good)

3-4 (6 ran-soft)

1-2 (6 ran-good to firm)

2 (4 ran-good to soft)

3-2 (7 ran-good to soft)

2-1 (7 ran-good)

Epsom record of course winners in the Coronation Cup:

1/2--Cracksman (good)

 

3.45: Four-year-olds have dominated this event as vintage representatives have snared eight of the last twenty renewals, whilst nine of the last eleven winners have carried a minimum weight of nine stones.  Putting the stats and facts together produces an overnight short list of AJMAN KING, last year’s winner NOT SO SLEEPY and DARK RED.  The trio is listed in order of preference to put it mildly, with dual (unbeaten) course winner AJMAN KING at home on the type of conditions we can expect on Friday.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won during the course of the last twenty years, whilst only seven market leaders have claimed Placepot positions over the period, even though some joint favourites have been involved as you might imagine in such a competitive event.

Draw factor' (ten furlongs):

2-5-8 (14 ran-good)

1-4-3 (10 ran-good to soft)

7-13-10 (13 ran-good to firm)

5-10-6 (12 ran-good)

12-4-5 (8 ran-good to soft)

8-2-3 (13 ran-good)

8-1-5 (11 ran-good)

10-5-3 (12 ran-good)

4-11-6 (10 ran-good)

5-2-1 (10 ran-good)

1-4-11 (12 ran-good to soft)

13-12-4-2 (17 ran-good)

10-8-15-14 (17 ran-good)

1-3-7 (11 ran-good)

6-7-2 (14 ran-good)

10-1-9 (11 ran-good to soft)

10-11-6 (12 ran-good to firm)

14-7-6 (14 ran-good)

10-3-8 (15 ran-good)

3-8-10 (14 ran-good)

Epsom record of course winners in the fourth race:

1/2—Dark Red (soft)

1/4—Banditry (good to firm)

2/2—Ajman King (good & heavy)

1/1—Not So Sleepy (good)

1/2—Brorocco (good)

1/5—Emenem (good)

 

4.30: There are contrasting stats relating to outsiders in the 'favourite factor' sector below because although lots of outsiders have won the Epsom Oaks of late, few others have reached the frame via an exact science.  John Gosden was waxing lyrical about the chance of Enable this time last year before the exceptional filly got the better on an Aidan O’Brien odds on chance before going to greater things.  Charlie Appleby is also sweet on his Dubawi filly WILD ILLUSION this time around and having won on soft ground in the past, William Buick’s mount look a certainty for the frame at the very least.  With Aidan O’Brian saddling five of the other eight runners, the trainer will still be hoping that he can claim his seventh victory in the race and I believe that the value for money call from his quintet is BYE BYE BABY.

Favourite factor: Only 18 of the 126 horses sent off at 14/1 or more have claimed toteplacepot positions (five winners) during the last 20 years.  On the other hand, five of the last ten winners have scored at odds ranging between 20/1 & 50/1.  Seven clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won the Oaks in recent times.  15 of the 22 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Draw factor' (twelve furlongs):

9-5-7 (9 ran-good)

4-9-5 (9 ran-good to soft)

2-1-11 (11 ran-good)

9-10-17 (17 ran-good)

3-1-6 (11 ran-good to soft)

10-8-2 (12 ran-good)

7-12-2 (13 ran-good)

15-4-2 (14 ran-good)

5-2-9 (10 ran-good)

13-10-11 (16 ran-good)

11-9-6 (14 ran-good to soft)

5-3-10 (10 ran-good)

2-4-9 (12 ran-good)

3-6 (7 ran-good)

7-11-9 (15 ran-good)

13-10-3 (14 ran-soft)

10-13-6 (14 ran-good to firm)

3-15-7 (16 ran-good to soft)

5-9-3 (10 ran-good to soft)

5-4-8 (8 ran-good)

 

5.15: Eleven of the last twelve winners of the Placepot finale have carried a maximum burden of 9-4 and though that trend is guaranteed to be extended this time around, I have left the stat in for your records.  Whatever happens to Charlie Appleby’s projected favourite in the Oaks, stable companion AURUM has a leading chance in the final leg of our favourite wager, with connections having most to fear from KINGS SHIELD and RUFUS KING.  I’m adding Mark Johnston’ latter named runner because although he has something to find via the form book, Rufus King will be battling all the way to the line which might not be the case of the projected favourite Kings Shield on ground which might prove to be his downfall.

Favourite factor: Seven clear market leaders and two joint favourites have won to date via twenty renewals, taking into account that the favourite ten years ago was withdrawn shortly before the off before a new market could be formed.  12 of the 20 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Draw factor' (seven furlongs):

3-7 (7 ran-good)

6-2-7 (8 ran-good to soft)

7-2-4 (9 ran-good)

6-2 (5 ran-good)

1-5 (7 ran-good to soft)

7-2 (6 ran-good)

5-1 (6 ran-good)

1-3-6 (8 ran-good)

9-2-5 (9 ran-good)

3-9 (7 ran-good)

2-3-10 (9 ran-good to soft)

5-4 (6 ran-good)

7-2-9 (9 ran-good)

2-9-7 (9 ran-good)

3-5 (5 ran-soft)

6-7 (7 ran-good to firm)

5-9-2 (9 ran-good to soft)

1-4 (6 ran-good)

1-5-9 (9 ran-good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

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