NEWBURY – APRIL 20
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £79.90 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:
Race 1: 61.8% units went through – 10/3* - 7/1 – 5/1
Race 2: 77.3% of the remaining units when through – 11/4** - 5/1 – 11/4**
Race 3: 71.8% of the remaining units went through – 5/4* & 7/2
Race 4: 16.2% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 – 28/1 – 10/1 (9/4)
Race 5: 55.5% of the remaining units went through – 25/1 – 7/4* - 14/1
Race 6: 29.6% of the units secured the dividend – 11/2 & 4/1 (15/8)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Newbury:
Leg 1 (1.50): 2 (Dave Dexter), 9 (Well Done Fox) & 1 (Azor Ahai)
Leg 2 (2.25): 6 (Qaysar), 11 (Tallow) & 8 (Rogue)
Leg 3 (3.00): 10 (Lah Ti Dah) & 1 (Arcadian Cat)
Leg 4 (3.35): 6 (A Monetofmadness), 2 (Just Glamorous) & 7 (Blue De Vega)
Leg 5 (4.05): 2 (Jukebox Jive), 9 (Champagne Champ) & 6 (Injam)
Leg 6 (4.35): 6 (Tigre Du Terre) & 4 (Bombyx)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
1.50: Ralph Beckett cannot do a great deal wrong at present (recent ratio of 6/16) though his first time out runners in the juvenile sector during the last five years offer a strike rate of just 11% via five winners. That said, this does not appear to be the strongest of two-year-old contests by Newbury standards whereby Ralph’s Stimulation colt DAVE DEXTER is included in the Placepot mix. The money (what there was of it overnight) was for WELL DONE FOX, whilst AZOR AHAI completes my trio against the remaining seven runners.
Favourite factor: Two favourites have prevailed during the last nine contests, whilst seven of the last eight gold medallists have been returned in single figures and at 10/1, the other winner during the ‘recent’ period could hardly have been classed as an extreme outsider.
2.25: With Richard Hannon having struck form of late and holding a decent chance in the opener with Well Done Fox, the trainer will be fancying his chances of extending the good run here, having declared both QAYSAR (dual winner from just three starts) and ROGUE who is the lone course winner in the line up. The latter named raider looks a tad overpriced at 20/1 in a few places at the time of writing, albeit Richard’s Choisir colt QAYSAR deserves his place at the head of the market at the time of writing. Arguably, I should not eliminate stable companion Oliver Reed from my list but I fancy the afore mentioned pair today. TALLOW is the only horse from the current market front runners to have won on turf which is obviously a positive pointer towards the William Haggas raider.
Favourite factor: Four of the last seven winners have scored at a top price of 5/1, though those stats only include one successful market leader. Indeed, the last two gold medallists scored at 25/1 and 14/1, whilst just four of the last eleven favourites have secured Placepot positions.
Record of the course winner in the second event on the card:
3.00: Markets like this can prove volatile and whispers emerge almost as soon as the gates open at a venue such as Newbury. That said, there has to be some significance in the declaration of John Gosden’s Dubawi filly LAH TI DAH who is on offer at 33/1 for the Epsom Oaks as I pen this column. John has enjoyed tremendous success at this meeting in recent years, yet Frankie’s mount is the only stable representative on the card this afternoon. The experience already gained by ARCADIAN CAT could take Ralph Beckett’s Kittens Joy filly into the frame again.
Favourite factor: Although only two market leaders have prevailed via ten renewals during the last eleven years, nine gold medallists have scored at a top price of 7/1 during the study period. Six renewals have slipped by without a successful favourite being recorded, whilst only one of the last four jollies has reached the frame.
3.35: Five-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals and three of the five relevant entries today make appeal in one way or another, namely A MOMENTOFMADNESS, JUST GLAMOROUS and BLUE DE VEGA. The trio is listed in order of preference at the time of writing. That said, the each way 9/1 price of JUST GLAMOROUS is ‘winning the day’ as I consider a bet in this event aside from our favourite wager which covers the first six races on the card. Most unusually, Ron Harris runs nine horses on the day, though only Just Glamorous has been directed towards Newbury, the other eight contenders all plying their trade at Bath this evening. For the record, Ron has saddled three of his last nine runners to winning effect.
Favourite factor: The last six winners have been returned at a top price of 6/1, statistics which include two winning favourites. That said, the other four recent market leaders all finished out with the washing.
4.05: Three each way types grab my attention in this event who are listed in order of preference as JUKEBOX JIVE, CHAMPAGNE CHAMP and INJAM. Anthony Honeyball’s first named raider has the assistance of John Egan in the saddle and this underrated pilot can add another winner to his tally which has largely gone unnoticed down the years. If you look through the record books, you will surprised just how many trainers use this jockey, resulting in really impressive strike rates for the said handlers of which Anthony is one.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 11/4 joint favourites snared gold and bronze medals last year alongside Placepot positions.
Record of the two course winners in the fifth race:
1/1—Jukebox Jive (good to soft)
1/1—Keep In Line (soft)
4.40: John Gosden has won the last three renewals of this event and the fact that the trainer is not represented this time around has been received as a major blow. Upwards and onward however by suggesting that the connections of TIGRE DU TERRE and BOMBYX are the likeliest beneficiaries this time around.
Favourite factor: Just two favourites have prevailed via ten renewals during the last eleven years. That said, the last five winners have scored at a top price of 4/1.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.