WINCANTON - OCTOBER 20
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £9.80 (7 favourites - 4 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Wincanton:
Leg 1 (1.40): 3 (Gibbes Bay), 1 (Molineaux) & 4 Cornish Warrior)
Leg 2 (2.15): 10 (Roll The Dough), 1 (Bishops Court) & 2 (Gentleman Jon)
Leg 3 (2.50): 4 (Garo De Juilley) & 5 (East Indies)
Leg 4 (3.25): 6 (Cucklington), 4 (Red Square Revival) & 8 (Goosen Maverick)
Leg 5 (4.00): 3 (Dan McGrue) & 7 (White Moon)
Leg 6 (4.35): 2 (Wolftrap) & 3 (The Last But One)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.40: The first point to note (perhaps) is that Paul Nicholls secured a 96/1 five-timer on the corresponding day last year, stats which included an 8/1 treble at this venue. Five-year-olds have won the last five renewals of the opening event and wouldn’t you just know it, Paul has declared his five-year-old gelding GIBBES BAY to contest the opening event, one of his five runners on the card. Not to be outdone, Colin Tizzard’s MOLINEAUX heads the trainer’s seven entries at Wincanton, bearing in mind that the previous year, Colin landed a 174/1 treble at this popular west-country venue. Whatever you are planning to back today, please take into account that here in Bristol (we are not far north of Wincanton), reporting that we had plenty of rain here yesterday whereby I will be a tad staggered if the reported good ground remains in place throughout the day. Good to soft winner CORNISH WARRIOR looks to be open to plenty of improvement and Noel Fehily’s mount completes my trio against the field.
Favourite factor: Nine favourites have been returned via just seven contests, market leaders having secured three gold medals, three silver and one of the bronze variety.
2.15: Eight-year-olds have secured seven of the last 13 renewals, if you include one that dead-heated four years ago. Vintage representative ROLL THE DOUGH is saddled by Philip Hobbs who is the only other trainer (apart from the pair mentioned in the opening event) to have saddled more than one winner on this corresponding card during the last five years. Connections of the dual course soft ground winner BISHOPS COURT will be waiting for an ease in the ground to be officially announced sometime this morning I’ll wager, whilst GENTLEMAN JON (winner of this race two years ago) seems to be at home under any conditions.
Favourite factor: Four of the fourteen renewals have been won by favourites during the last fifteen years. Seven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.
Record of course winners in the second contest on the card:
2/5—Bishops Court (2 x soft)
4/8—Gentleman Joe (2 x good to firm – good – soft)
2/4—Dance King (good & good to soft)
2.50: Gary Moore saddled two of his five runners (on the level) to winning effect yesterday and the popular trainer will be hoping that EAST INDIES will extend the good run in a race which has greatly favoured well fancied horses thus far, albeit after just three renewals. Paul Nicholls has declared GARO DE JUILLEY though to be honest, nearly all the leading southern based trainers are represented in an interesting encounter. You are in a better position than yours truly (at the time of writing) in terms of potentially adding GENERAL GINGER if support begins to evolve during the morning for Harry Fry’s Generous gelding.
Favourite factor: The three (5/2-9/4-6/5) favourites to date duly prevailed.
Record of the course winners in the field:
2/6—On Demand (good & good to firm)
3/9—Thundering Home (good to firm – soft – heavy)
3.25: Six-year-olds have won two of the four renewals (runner up last year) via less than 25% of the total number of runners, with CUCKLINGTON potentially leading home the four relevant entries on this occasion. Colin Tizzard’s Kayf Tara gelding is available at 5/1 in plenty of places this morning and his each way/Placepot chance is there for all to see, though whether I would back Harry Cobden’s mount to actually win the contest as another matter entirely, especially with RED SQUARE REVIVAL also among the declarations. Interestingly, GOOSEN MAVERICK as the subject of each way support at the time of writing, almost right across the board.
Favourite factor: Three of the four market leaders have claimed Placepot positions to date, statistics which include one (5/4) winner.
4.00: Three of the last four market leaders have scored, all trained by either Paul Nicholls (Dan McGrue) or Colin Tizzard (WHITE MOON) and the trend looks set to continue, one way or the other in a disappointing event. It looks as though the pair will have to make plenty of hurdling mistakes if any of the other five runners are to be given a chance of even making the frame in this short field contest. New readers might like to know that the terms ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/Placepot perspectives.
Favourite factor: Four of the six market leaders have snared Placepot positions, statistics which include three (8/11, 4/6 & 4/9) winners.
4.35: A great deal of time has passed by since I passed on the news that favourites in extended handicap hurdle events (beyond the minimum trip) have the worst record in racing as far as successful market leaders are concerned though always trying to offer an accurate assessment, market leaders in this race have not fared too badly (see stats below). Ten of the last twelve winners have carried 11-4 or more, whilst I feel duty bound to inform that every trainer who has saddled a winner during the last decade in this event is only conspicuous by his absence and yes that is ‘politically correct’ as male trainers have dominated of late. The ground might go against the recent Worcester winner Stonemadforspeed and I am homing in on the pair WOLFTRAP and THE LAST BUT ONE, though shouldn’t the latter named Paul Nicholls raider have run in the previous race?
Favourite factor: Eleven of the thirteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, with four market leaders having prevailed from a win perspective.
Record of the course winners in the field:
2/3—Sir Dylan (good & good to firm)
1/11—Benbecula (good to soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Wincanton card on Friday – followed by five year ratios + profit/losses accrued:
7 runners—Colin Tizzard (21/181 – loss of 50 points)
5—Paul Nicholls (74/211 – loss of 5 points)
4—Neil Mulholland (11/121 – loss of 42 points)
3—Bernard Llewellyn (0/12)
3—Jeremy Scott (8/89 – loss of 45 points)
2—Richenda Ford (0/10)
2—Philip Hobbs (21/133 – loss of 27 points)
2—Alan King (11/66 – loss of 14 points)
2—Emma Lavelle (11/56 +21)
2—Richard Mitchell (4/26 – loss of 6 points)
2—Gary Moore (2/36 – loss of 19 points)
2—Fergal O’Brien (0/17)
2—Jonjo O’Neill (1/26 – loss of 18 points)
2—Brendan Powell (1/31 – loss of 22 points)
+ 21 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
61 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Haydock: £151.50 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced - NOW ABANDONED
Redcar: £156.90 – 6 favourites – No winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced
Fakenham: £23.30 – 6 favourites – 4 favourites – 1 placed – 1 unplaced
Newcastle (A/W): £305.30 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced