NEWMARKET - JULY 21
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £225.90 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket:
Leg 1 (5.35): 4 (Truly Scrumptious), 1 (Duchy) & 7 (Della Vale)
Leg 2 (6.10): 1 (Quivery) & 4 (Eastern Sunrise)
Leg 3 (6.40): 1 (Rigoletto), 4 (Time’s Arrow) & 3 (Angel Down)
Leg 4 (7.10): 9 (Yalta), 7 (Willytheconqueror) & 5 (Ornate)
Leg 5 (7.45): 9 (Partitia), 7 (Raven’s Lady) & 11 (Clon Coulis)
Leg 6 (8.15): 6 (Pretty Asset) & 8 (Song Maker)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
5.35: Ten of the fourteen winners to date have carried weights of nine stones or more, whilst four-year-olds lead the three-year-olds 6-4 via results during the last twelve years. Putting the stats and facts together produces a short list of DUCHY, DELLA VALE and TRULY SCRUMPTIOS. The first named pair have the stats on their side, whilst five time course winner TRULY SCRUMPTIOUS is difficult to ignore given that ground does not seem to be an issue to the evergreen eight-year-old. The overnight 9/2 quote in the trade press looks a tad generous and one that I would take if the relevant chalk was marked up.
Favourite factor: Two clear market leaders and one joint favourites have scored during the last decade. That said, winners at 25/1 and 16/1 (twice) have also been recorded during the study period. Seven of the last 13 favourites have secured Placepot positions.
Record of the course winner in the opening event:
5/16—Truly Scrumptious (2 x good to firm – good – soft – good to soft)
6.10: Jeremy Noseda has saddled four winners at this corresponding meeting during the last four years and Jeremy’s Debut Doncaster winner QUIVERY will surely take the beating this evening. EASTERN SUNRISE is the only rival who is standing up at all against the favourite who has been backed as if defeat is out of the question. Doncaster layers were bitten several times where it hurts more before Jeremy’s filly won with plenty in hand at Town Moor. Laurens would be an obvious threat if turned out again after winning at Doncaster last night but that scenario seems most unlikely.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Newmarket card.
6.40: Ryan Moore rode the first winner of this event for Sir Michael Stoute twelve months ago and the bandwagon rolls into town again with Michael’s Thirsk winner TIME’S ARROW. Luca Cumani might be a little disappointed with the season by the high standards he has set down the years, though things seem to be turning in his favour now (five of his last eleven runners have won), whereby RIGOLETTO demands plenty of respect. ANGEL DOWN is preferred to Turning Gold who looks to have plenty going for him, though any value in Sir Mark Prescott’s raider long since disappeared.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 6/4 favourite duly obliged.
Record of the course winners the third race:
1/1—Rigoletto (good to soft)
1/1—Angel Down (good to soft)
7.10: 13 of the last 14 winners have carried weights of 8-8 or more though unfortunately, no 'edge' can be found on this occasion. I am leaving the stats in for those of you who keep records. This is a race for horses that have struggled for form of late, especially when compared to ‘yesteryear’ when several entries were more than paying for their keep in their respective stables. I tend to look for younger horses in such races, hoping enthusiasm remains under the saddle, whereby my trio against the other six contenders consists of YALTA, WILLYTHECONQUEROR and ORNATE.
Favourite factor: Six clear market leaders, two joint favourites and one co favourite have scored in the last 20 years. 16 of the 24 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions though it’s worth noting that four odds on favourites have been beaten in recent years. The last 20 winners have all been returned in single figures (9/1 or less).
Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:
1/5—Goldream (good to firm)
1/2—Monsieur Joe (good)
2/4—Tropics (good to firm & good to soft)
7.45: Three-year-olds have won six renewals during the last decade, with vintage representatives at 1/2 to improve the ratio still further before the form book is taken into account. Many readers will latch on to the Stoute/Moore pairing again with PARTITIA, though whilst I feel duty bound to include Michael’s Bated Breath filly from a Placepot perspective, win money is locked away until she actually gets her head in front where it matters most. Equally I would not back against her, whereby I will simply add RAVEN‘S LADY and David Barron’s northern raider CLON COULIS into the Placepot mix and move on.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won three of the last four contests with level stake potential £100 investors showing a profit of £833.33 during the period. That said, five barren years had been endured since the previous 5/2 market leader had prevailed. Seven of the ten favourites have secured Placepot positions during the period.
Record of the course winners the fifth race:
1/3—Summer Chorus (good to firm)
1/2—Raven’s Lady (good to soft)
8.15: Like Jeremy Noseda (mentioned earlier) at the meeting, Charlie Appleby has saddled four winners at this fixture down the years and the popular handler appears to have a stranglehold on the Placepot finale, having declared both PRETTY ASSET and SONG BOOK. It seems incomprehensible to think that both horses will finish out of the frame, though I will leave it up to you to pick the winner out.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural favourites secured a Placepot position by finishing second to the 9/2 winner.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newmarket card on Friday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—Richard Hannon (3/32 – loss of 3 points)
3—Sir Michael Stoute (2/10 – loss of 3 points)
2—Charlie Appleby (7/25 – Profit of 1 point)
2—Andrew Balding (1/5 – Profit of 3 points)
2—David Barron (1/4 – Profit of 9 points)
2—Michael Bell (0/15)
2—Robert Cowell (0/3)
2—Ed Dunlop (3/12 – Profit of 4 points)
2—Gay Kelleway (0/3)
2—Phil McBride (0/6)
2—Mike Murphy (0/2)
2—Jeremy Noseda (1/5 – Profit of 2 points)
2—John Ryan (1/12 – loss of 5 points)
+ 38 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
67 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Hamilton: £1,244.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced
Haydock: £127.50 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced
Newbury: £2,291.70 – 7 favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced
Nottingham: £122.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Pontefract: £63.10 – 8 favourites – No winners – 4 placed – 4 unplaced