ASCOT - DECEMBER 22
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £1,267.40 (6 favourites - 2 winners & 4 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Ascot:
Leg 1 (12.45): 11 (Whisky In The Jar), 9 (Settie Hill) & 1 (Clondaw Warrior)
Leg 2 (1.20): 2 (Divine Spear) & 1 (Exitas)
Leg 3 (1.55): 5 (Mr One More), 2 (Claimantakinforgan) & 1 (Slate Hill)
Leg 4 (2.30): 3 (Dolos), 1 (Finan’s Oscar) & 2 (Benatar)
Leg 5 (3.05): 3 (Eaton Hill) & 1 (The Mighty Don)
Leg 6 (3.40): 1 (Bullionaire), 14 (Posh Trish) & 5 (Hidden Glen)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.45: Nicky Henderson has saddled four winners at this corresponding (Friday) fixture during the last five years (three winning favourites – other gold medallist was returned at 11/4) and SETTIE HILL looks to be the stable pick ahead of Darius Des Bois on this occasion. Whether either of Nicky’s raiders will cope with the likes of WHISKY IN THE JAR and CLONDAW NATIVE remains to be seen. This pair hail from the respective in form yards Olly Murphy and Stuart Edmunds though either way, this preferred trio will represent yours truly in the opening event on Friday.
Favourite factor: Six of the ten market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include five winners.
1.20: Six-year-old olds lead the five-year-olds 5-4 via the last 13 renewals and DIVINE SPEAR and DAREBIN should lead the relevant horses home this time around. The pair is listed in order of preference with Nicky Henderson’s Oscar gelding DIVINE SPEAR expected to build on his successful Catterick debut effort over fences at Catterick the last day. It’s difficult to leave Phil Middleton’s progressive nine-year-old raider EXITAS out of the equation however, especially as Phil continues to send his runners out to good effect. Phil’s ‘recent’ figures stand at 8/29, a ratio which has produced 39 points of level stake profit.
Favourite factor: Eight of the last 13 favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include four winners.
Record of the course winner in the field in the second event:
1.55: Four-year-olds have won eight of the last 12 renewals whereby it beggars belief that the vintage is not represented on this occasion. Upwards and onward however by suggesting that MR ONE MORE might prove to be the value for money call given the 5/1 quotes by Bet365 and BetVictor at the time of writing. Harry Fry’s Asian Heights gelding has won all three assignments to date, though softer ground here might prove to be more of a problem that the calibre of his rivals, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be CLAIMANTAKINFORGAN and SLATE HILL. That said, it’s worth noting that Nicky Henderson’s first named raider was a beaten favourite in the last race on last year’s corresponding card.
Favourite factor: Eight of the 13 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (five winners) though that said, back to back 33/1 chances scored in 2002/3.
Record of the course winners in the field in the third race:
1/1—Coeur Blimey (soft)
1/1—Mr One More (good to soft)
2.30: Paul Nicholls (DOLOS) comes to the gig on a four-timer and though the four-year-old takes on two more established types in FINIAN’S OSCAR and BENATAR here, I’m obliged to enter all three horses into my Placepot permutation, as is usually the case. Since the start of November the outsider of three has won three of seventeen races with representatives showing a very slight level stake profit, the winners having been returned at 8/1, 4/1 & 9/4. Races in which two outsiders shared the share price are null and void according to my ruling. DOLOS is a ‘worthy outsider’ to include in the mix accordingly. I opposed FINIAN’S OSCAR last time out because I stated that he would be “run off his feet” over the minimum trip at Sandown and that is exactly what happened. An additional five furlongs will help here but even then, another quarter of a mile or so would have been ideal from my viewpoint. Course winner BENATAR has far too much ability to be ruled out of the contest.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have prevailed via the last 13 renewals during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at 13/2 during the study period. 11 market leaders have finished in the frame to date.
Record of the course winner in the field in the fourth event:
1/3—Dolos (good to soft)
3.05: Two renewals cannot constitute a ‘trend’ I know, though I am still aware that horses carrying a minimum weight of 10-13 stones have secured all six available Placepot positions to date, whilst five-year-olds have won both contests. Four horses boast ticks in both of the ‘trend boxes’, with EATON HILL and THE MIGHTY DON preferred to GOLAN FORTUNE who has had trouble in the jumping department of late. With a clear round he would be entitled to plenty of respect but the fences at Ascot take quite a bit of negotiating.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 3/1 favourite snared a toteplacepot position by finishing third behind horses sent off at 16/1 & 5/1, before last year’s 7/4 market leader departed the race at last flight when held.
3.40: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last eleven contests and with vintage representatives responsible for 11/14 of the declarations, I am taking the trio of BULLIONAIRE, POSH TRISH and HIDDEN GLEN to land the dividend between them in a competitive finale. Enough to say that I would not contemplate a bet from a win perspective.
Favourite factor: We still await the first successful market leader following 11 renewals of the toteplacepot finale, albeit seven favourites have finished in the frame.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ascot card on Friday (two or more) – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:
5 runners—Nicky Henderson (2/19 – loss of 11 points) – 126/654 – loss of 147
3—Nick Gifford (1/3 +14) – 6/92 – loss of 3 points
3—Gary Moore (2/14 – loss of 2 points) – 23/227 – loss of 65
2—Stuart Edmunds (0/1) – 0/10
2—Harry Fry (1/7 – loss of 3 points) – 13/49 +4
2—Sue Gardner (0/1) – 1/13 +4
2—Paul Henderson (0/1) – 0/12
2—Phil Middleton (1/1 +5) – 1/4 +2
2—Neil Mullholland (0/3) – 3/27 – loss of 12
2—Seamus Mullins (0/5) – 4/76 – loss of 5
2—Paul Nicholls (1/12 – loss of 8 points) – 76/420 – loss of 130
2—Fergal O’Brien (0/1) – 5/24 – loss of 1
2—Jonjo O’Neill (1/5 +3) – 23/195 – loss of 42
2—Ben Pauling (2/5 +5) – 3/19 – slight loss
2—Dan Skelton (0/2) – 4/45 – loss of 12
2—Colin Tizzard (0/12) – 11/115 – loss of 43
+ 10 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
47 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Uttoxeter: £552.60 - 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced
Wolverhampton: £82.50 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced