NEWBURY – SEPTEMBER 22
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £824.20 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Newbury:
Leg 1 (1.20): 14 (Final Treat), 4 (Buffer Zone) & 10 (Orange Suit)
Leg 2 (1.50): 10 (Beshaayir) & 12 (Foxtrot Lady)
Leg 3 (2.25): 4 (Lethal Lunch), 5 (Bombastic) & 3 (Running Cloud)
Leg 4 (2.55): 9 (Temple Church), 2 (Danehill Kodiac) & 3 (Wild Hacked)
Leg 5 (3.30): 2 (White Mocha), 1 (Bon Scotte) & 4 (Khazaf)
Leg 6 (4.00): 11 (Princess De Lune), 7 (Second Thought) & 8 (Golden Stunner)
Suggested stake: 766 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.20: BUFFER ZONE and FINAL TREAT are being well back now that Jaawaal has been withdrawn, though the Hannon representative ORANGE SUIT cannot be ignored, given that ‘Team Hannon’ won this event three years in a row recently. 12/1 (at the time of writing) offers a little value for money accordingly for those that want to take on the market leaders.
Favourite factor: Four of the last nine contests were won by favourites during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at 9/1.
1.50: BESHAAYIR sets the standard though that said, beaten juvenile favourites on the strength of one run have kept bookmakers ‘in cigars’ for as long as I care to remember. Yes, the William Haggas raider will head my Placepot team for this event, but as for taking the 4/5 on offer on ‘uncertain’ turf, I’ll swerve that option if you don’t mind. The experience gained by FOXTROT LADY suggests that she will make the frame again.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening race at Newbury whereby the same stats apply; four of the last nine contests were won by favourites during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at 9/1.
2.25: Clive Cox saddled last year’s winner and with the team in devastating recent form (13/30 ratio in recent weeks), stable representative LETHAL LUNCH is the first name on the team sheet. BOMBASTIC (Ed De Giles) and RUNNING CLOUD (Eve Johnson Houghton) also represent in form stables and this pair might offer most resistance to the selection at the business end of proceedings.
Favourite factor: The biggest priced winner scored at 7/1 via just the four renewals to date, with one (4/5) market leader having prevailed thus far.
2.55: The only overnight money has come for course winner TEMPLE CHURCH and WILD HACKED, whilst offering the sobering message that just two favourites have won during the last decade. That said, nine of the last ten winners have scored at a top price of 15/2. Three-year-olds have snared five of the last nine renewals which is another pointer towards the lone vintage raider TEMPLE CHURCH. DANEHILL KODIAC just gets the nod over Dance The Dream to complete my trio against the field.
Favourite factor: Only one market leader has scored during the last nine years, whilst further news is listed above.
Record of the course winner in the fourth race:
1/3—Temple Church (soft)
3.30: Marus Tregoning has saddled two of the last nine winners whereby the chance of KHAZAF is respected, albeit that WHITE MOCHA and BON SCOTTE hold valuable racecourse experience over the Dawn Approach newcomer. Living in Bristol (not too far west of Newbury), I am amazed that the projection is for good ground today, given that it rained for at least five consecutive hours here yesterday. Tread carefully!
Favourite factor: Four renewals have slipped by since the last favourite obliged though to be entirely fair, the biggest priced gold medallist during those brief barren years was returned at just 11/2. Indeed, three of the last eight contests have been snared by favourites of one description or another.
4.00: Three-year-olds have won seven of the last nine renewals, though four-year-old GOLDEN STUNNER arguably offers some value for money here, albeit against slight slightly more obvious winners of the contest, namely PRINCESS DE LUNE and SECOND THOUGHT. The first named Roger Charlton raider ‘splits the books’ this morning between offers of 4/1 and 11/2, with the first named quote making more sense than the second. If the odds don’t seem to be that far apart to (respectfully) the ‘untrained eye’, the differential between 11/2 and 4/1 is roughly the same as a horse being back in from 20/1 to 10/1.
Favourite factor: Although the biggest priced winner was returned at just 8/1 during the last nine years, only two successful market leaders were registered during the period.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/1—Tabarrak (good to soft)
1/1—Golden Stunner (good to firm)
1/1—Princess De Lune (good to firm)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newbury card on Friday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
10 runners—Richard Hannon (9/73 – loss of 7 points)
5—Hughie Morrison (1/13 – loss of 9 points)
4—William Haggas (5/30 - +3)
4—Eve Johnson Houghton (1/13 - loss of 9 points)
3—Andrew Balding (0/19)
3—Ralph Beckett (3/20 – loss of 2 points)
3—Roger Charlton (2/18 – loss of 10 points)
3—Clive Cox (0/21)
3—Tom Dascombe (0/6)
3—Charlie Hills (5/32 +31)
3—James Tate (1/2 +2)
3—Marcus Tregoning (0/5)
2—Marco Botti (0/12)
2—Harry Dunlop (0/9)
2—Charlie Fellowes (0/2)
2—Richard Hughes (0/13)
2—Hugo Palmer (0/18)
2—Jonathan Portman (0/10)
2—Sir Michael Stoute (3/21 – loss of 7 points)
2—Ed Walker (3/20 +2)
+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
87 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Newton Abbot: £50.80