WARWICK – FEBRUARY 23
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £81.40 (7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Warwick:
Leg 1 (1.50): 1 (Indian Hawk) & 5 (Lygon Rock)
Leg 2 (2.25): 1 (Jaboticaba) & 2 (Doctor Bartolo)
Leg 3 (3.00): 1 (Sparkling River), 4 (Socksy) & 7 (Phoeniciana)
Leg 4 (3.30): 1 (Knockgraffon), 5 (Cobra De Mai) & 2 (Bishops Road)
Leg 5 (4.05): 2 (American Life), 10 (Max Dynamo) & 4 (Asking Questions)
Leg 6 (4.40): 8 (Talk Of The South) & 5 (More Than Luck)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.50: Five-year-olds have won six of the last eleven renewals and vintage representatives come to the gig on a five timer on this occasion. Last year’s lone representative duly obliged, though LYGON ROCK (best chance this year from my viewpoint) might have his work cut out to beat INDIAN HAWK and LISDOONVARA LAD, despite the great form of trainer Henry Daly.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won six of the last twelve contests, whilst the biggest priced winner during the period was returned at 9/1. Market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science) in eleven of the twelve relevant contests.
2.25: Olly Murphy throws three outsiders into the race that carries his name, though a look at the favourite stats below should tell you that horses up at the top end of the market tend to dominate. JABOTICABA and DOCTOR BARTOLO represent Alan King who invariably has plenty of decent four-year-olds in his care and this season is no exception. Connections probably have most to fear from Thistimenextyear.
Favourite factor: Seven of the twelve renewals have been won by market leaders, whilst the last twelve favourites have all secured toteplacepot positions. Eight of the last nine winners have won at a top price of 5/2.
3.35: Henry Oliver has saddled his last two runners to winning effect and the record of his inmate SPARKLING RIVER here at Warwick (3/3) suggests that his place towards the top of the market is justified. That said, SOCKSY looks sure to make a race of it when the whips are raised, whilst the outstanding each way alternative option to offer is PHOENICIANA, though the 10/1 quote with Hills at the time of writing is unlikely to last long I’ll wager.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Warwick card.
Record of the course winner in the third event:
3/3—Sparkling River (good to soft – soft – heavy)
3.30: Eight of the nine Placepot positions have been claimed by horses carrying a maximum burden of 10-13, statistics which include three of the four winners at 7/2****, 7/2 & 7/4*. I have left the stat in for those of you that keep records, albeit all seven runners qualify via the weight trend this time around. Upwards and onward in positive mode however by suggesting that KNOCKGRAFFON, COBRA DE MAI and BISHOPS ROAD will get us into the penultimate leg of our favourite wager in this ‘short field’ event. The trio is listed in order of preference, whilst new readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.
Favourite factor: Three of the eight favourites to date have claimed Placepot positions via just four renewals.
Record of the course winners in the fourth contest on the card:
1/1—Kayf Adventure (heavy)
1/2—Cobra De Mai (good)
1/1—Drumlee Sunset (good)
4.05: Predict A Riot will come good again one day I guess though for the time being, more consistent raiders such as AMERICAN LIFE, MAX DYNAMO and ASKING QUESTIONS attract the eye, albeit only from a Placepot perspective. Readers could do worse that have a small saver on Phangio (still available at 28/1 in a place at the time of writing).
Favourite factor: The two (7/4 & 6/4) favourites have finished out with the washing this far.
Record of the course winner in the fifth race:
1/1—Goodnight Charlie (good to soft)
4.10: TALK OF THE SOUTH looks a fairly safe proposition from a Placepot perspective, as does FLY HOME HARRY to a fashion. MORE THAN LUCK is the potential joker in the pack however, representing the Olly Murphy yard which will want to land a winner on the card for reasons mentioned in the second race.
Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new race on the Warwick programme.
Record of the course winner in the last leg:
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Warwick card on Friday – followed by ratios at the track this season + five year figures & profits/losses accrued on both counts:
6 runners—Olly Murphy (0/5) – 0/5
3—Ben Case (1/8 – loss of 1) – 5/38 +29
3—Oliver Greenall (0/3) – 0/3
3—Alan King (7/21 – loss of 4) – 30/121 – loss of 40
3—Ian Williams (2/13 +4) – 7/75 +26
2—Tom George (0/5) – 2/33 – loss of 12
2—Nicky Henderson 2/4 – slight profit) – 13/49 – loss of 8
2—Paul Henderson (0/5) – 2/17 – loss of 8
2—Philip Hobbs (2/12 – loss of 3) – 24/98 – loss of 8
2—Charlie Longsdon (1/12 – loss of 3) – 12/101 – loss of 43
2—Ben Pauling (0/10) – 10/41 +13
2—Peter Pritchard (First runners at Warwick this season) – 0/7
2—Oliver Sherwood (0/5) – 3/40 – loss of 29
2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (4/26 – loss of 6) – 22/147 – loss of 52
2—Lucy Wadham (0/5) – 2/27 – loss of 16
+ 30 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
68 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Exeter: £55.10 – 7 runners – 2 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced
Lingfield: £225.40 – 6 favourites. 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Wolverhampton: £46.60 – 7 favourites – 4 winners & 3 unplaced