Placepot Pointers

Placepot Pointers – Friday 23rd March

NEWBURY – MARCH 23

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £1,464.50 (All six favourites finished out of the frame!)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 31.6% units went through – 7/4 (Win only – unplaced fav at 11/8)

Race 2: 32.1% of the remaining units when through – 8/1, 8/1 & 11/2 (9/4)

Race 3: 23.0% of the remaining units went through – 10/1, 33/1 & 8/1 (4/1)

Race 4: 27.7% of the remaining units went through – 12/1 & 7/2 (7/4)

Race 5: 20.3% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 & 9/1 (13/8)

Race 6: 38.2% of the units secured the dividend – 10/3, 9/1 & 33/1 (11/8)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Molineaux) & 2 (Euxton Lane)

Leg 2 (2.30): 11 (Morning Reggie), 2 (Halo Moon) & 3 (Private Malone)

Leg 3 (3.05): 10 (Fizzlestix), 5 (Christmas In April) & 4 (Darius Des Bois)

Leg 4 (3.40): 6 (Another Frontier), 1 (Ice Cool Champs) & 2 (Le Boizelo)

Leg 5 (4.10): 2 (Moabit) & 7 (Early Du Lemo)

Leg 6 (4.45): 3 (Alfstar), 1 (Jimmy The Jetplane) & 2 (Vivaldo Collonges)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

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2.00: I live less than an hour away from Newbury and can report that we had several hours of overnight rain which if Newbury experienced, heavy ground could be the order of the day rather than the official “soft” call overnight.  Upwards and onward with MOLINEAUX expected to ‘enjoy’ the conditions more than most, connections possibly having to fear a challenge from EUXTON LANE at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: One of the three market leaders has claimed a Placepot position to date but even then, the 1/3 favourite was obviously expected to win the relevant contest which the jolly failed to do.

 

2.30: All eight winners thus far have carried a minimum burden of 11-2 but with MORNING REGGIE sitting just 16 ounces under the ‘superior’ handicap barrier, I’m willing to offer Oliver Sherwood’s raider a chance.  There will certainly be worse 12/1 chances on the card though that ‘trade press quote’ might prove to be a tad fanciful by flag fall I’ll wager. I would have made Kincora Fort a danger but for noting that he was taken out of a ‘heavy ground’ event recently with the trainer suggesting that conditions were unsuitable for the horse.  Accordingly, I’m opting for the likes of HALO MOON and PRIVATE MALONE to offer most resistance up the home straight.

Favourite factor: Five of the ten favourites have finished in the frame via eight renewals, statistics which include two (9/2 & 11/4) winners.

 

3.05: Six-year-olds have secured four of the last five contests, whilst six of the last seven gold medallists carried a minimum burden of 11-6.  CHRISTMAS IN APRIL boasts ticks in each of the trend boxes with Nicky Henderson appearing to have found a decent opportunity for his event, albeit the ground is something of an unknown factor.  Nicky also saddles DARIUS DES BOIS which clouds the picture to a fashion though either way, FIZZLESTIX looks a major threat, albeit the six-year-olds falls short via the weight trend by some margin, especially with James Bowen taking off a useful three pounds in the plate.

Favourite factor: Four of the ten market leaders have secured Placepot positions via eight renewals, statistics which include one 7/2 joint favourite.

 

3.40: Seven-year-olds have won four of the last seven renewals and all four vintage representatives on this occasion have proved that they can act under testing conditions.  Given that Bobo Mac has trouble negotiating obstacles quite frequently, I will opt for the other trio which are listed in marginal order of preference at the time of writing; namely ANOTHER FRONTIER, ICE COOL CHAMPS and LE BOIZELO.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won during the last seven years, whilst two of the other three winners during that period were returned at just 5/1 and 7/2.  Last year’s 12/1 gold medallist upset the applecart to a fashion.

 

4.10: Bryony Frost boasted fabulous aggregate January/February stats of 10/35 in the plate but the brilliant young rider has only been given six opportunities this month (one winner), which just goes to show how tough this game is for pilots to get decent rides.  Bryony appears to have been given a good chance here however aboard MOABIT who has won on both occasions that Bryony has been given the green light to ride.  EARLY DU LEMO is the ‘dark horse’ in the contest.

Favourite factor: Ten of the last eleven winners have scored at a top price of 7/1, statistics which include three successful favourites.

 

4.45: We should land the Placepot dividend if opting for the trio of ALFSTAR, JIMMY THE JETPLANE and VIVALDO COLLONGES against Billy Merriot in a more open Hunter Chase than we normally anticipate.  The latter named raider represents last year’s winning connections but the ground might have gone against the twelve-year-old overnight.

Favourite factor: As usual in Hunter Chase events, favourites have a good record having won five renewals during the last eleven years, with eight gold medallists having scored at a top price of 4/1.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Monetaire (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Specific details for Newbury on Friday:

It rained for several hours here in the west-country overnight whereby you should check the going before placing any bets.  “Soft” was the official overnight call but there could well be heavy areas if Newbury has endured the amount of rain we received in Bristol.

 

SEDGEFIELD ON FRIDAY – IF YOU ARE PLAYING THE PLACEPOT AT THE MEETING:

Last year’s dividend: £172.60 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 31.8% units went through – 5/1, 4/1**, 40/1 (4/1**)

Race 2: 98.7% of the remaining units when through – 13/8, 11/10* & 5/1

Race 3: 18.3% of the remaining units went through – 10/1, 28/1 & 11/1 (9/4)

Race 4: 23.1% of the remaining units went through – 6/1, 9/2 & 11/2 (2/1)

Race 5: 51.2% of the remaining units went through – 11/8* & 10/1

Race 6: 62.3% of the units secured the dividend – 8/13* (Win only event)

 

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