ASCOT - NOVEMBER 24
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £52.30 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Ascot:
Leg 1 (1.00): 3 (Sternrubin), 2 (Sizing Tennessee) & 4 (Dolos)
Leg 2 (1.30): 12 (Storm Of Intrigue), 10 (Settie Hill) & 15 (Turtle Wars)
Leg 3 (2.05): 7 (Kayf Grace) & 2 (Mr One More)
Leg 4 (2.40): 3 (Kilcrea) & 5 (Thomas Brown)
Leg 5 (3.15): 1 (Bally Longford), 4 (Brandon Hill) & 2 (Marcilhac)
Leg 6 (3.50): 5 (Don Bersy), 2 (Verdana Blue) & 10 (Eddiemaurice)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.00: Six-year-olds have secured four of the five available toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include all four (5/2-Evens*-8/13-4/7*) winners. Dual course winner STERNRUBIN is very much the pick of the two vintage representatives here, though SIZING TENNESSEE looks sure to produce a decent challenge at some stage up the home straight. The concession of eight pounds by both horses suggests that DOLOS is not entirely out of the mix either.
Favourite factor: Four of the five market leaders have claimed Placepot positions thus far, statistics which include three (4/7, 8/13 & Evens) winners.
Record of the course winner in the opening event:
2/4—Sternrubin (good & good to soft)
1.30: Four-year-olds lead the five-years old 3-2 via just the five renewals to date though on the Placepot front, the advantage is reversed with the older horses having edge via stats of 8-7, with the two vintages having totally dominated the fifteen available positions to date. Nicky Henderson saddles three horses and representing the two dominant vintages, I’m going to retire to the bar in siding with the three relevant raiders, namely STORM OF INTRIGUE, SETTLE HILL and TURTLE WARS. It’s worth noting that Nicky has saddled seven winning at this corresponding (Friday) meeting during the last five years, three clear of his nearest pursuer (Venetia Williams).
Favourite factor: All five market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include one (5/4) winner.
Record of the course winner in the second race:
1/1—King Of Realms (good to soft)
2.05: Five-year-olds have won five of the last nine renewals, with MR ONE MORE looking to be the pick of the three relevant declarations on this occasion. Although Harry Fry drew a blank at the two day fixture twelve months ago, the trainer saddled four winners the year before and Harry certainly has a decent prospect in MR ONE MAN. That said, Nicky Henderson has secured three of the last six renewals if this event whereby KAYF GRACE could be the answer from a win perspective. Before you go ‘lumping on’ however, sobering stats are also in place as Nicky has saddled the beaten favourites on each of the three occasion when failing to lift the prize in recent years.
Favourite factor: Nine favourites have won via eighteen renewals, whilst 17 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions down the years.
2.40: KILCREA VALE was one of the beaten (Nicky Henderson trained) favourites which I referred to in the previous race though to be entirely fair to the Beneficial gelding, KILCREA VALE was coasting in front when coming down at the second last in the relevant contest. Providing he avoids the same mistake here, Nico’s mount should go close to winning, though connections of THOMAS BROWN will justifiably be confident of a decent effort, albeit a little more juice in the ground would have been classed as a bonus. If you want to take on the market leaders in this contest, FORTUNATE GEORGE represents the in form of yard of Emma Lavelle, with the booking of Richard Johnson particularly catching the eye.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 9/4 market leader obliged, though both of last year’s 5/2 joint favourites finished out of the frame.
Record of the course winner in the field:
1/3—Thomas Brown (soft)
3.20: Nine of the ten winners have carried a minimum burden of 10-10, three of which were returned as favourites. Six of the gold medallists carried 11-5 or more and I subscribe to the view that the number will be increased here, with either BALLY LONGFORD or BRANDON HILL obliging, Eight-year-olds have won four of the last six renewals (and five of the last ten) which also brings MARCILHAC into the equation, especially as Daryl Jacob’s mount is the only Venetia Williams entry on the card, given that she has saddled four winners at the meeting during the last five years. More juice in the ground would have made yours truly more confident from a win perspective. Antony looks sure to run his race but with Gary Moore only having saddled one of his last 25 runners to winning effect, I’m happy to swerve the projected favourite.
Favourite factor: Six favourites have finished out of the money thus far but that said, 20 of the 27 horses to secure toteplacepot positions (including eight of the ten winners) were returned at odds of 10/1 or less.
Record of the course winner in the fifth race:
3.50: The lone course winner in the field looks like having the same (winning) conditions here whereby the chance of EDDIEMAURICE is respected, especially from a Placepot perspective. A little money is creeping into the market relating to the Tom Symonds entry DON BERSY (take a look at the trainer stats below), whilst VERDANA BLUE completes my trio against the remaining nine contenders.
Favourite factor: Six of the last 14 clear favourites have obliged, whilst six of the last eight market leaders have secured Placepot positions.
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
1/1—Eddiemaurice (good to soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ascot card on Friday – followed by five year Ascot stats + profits/losses accrued:
7 runners—Nicky Henderson (24/120 – loss of 33 points)
4—Philip Hobbs (14/85 – loss of 4 points)
4—Gary Moore (2/33 – loss of 18 points)
4—Colin Tizzard (8/53 +6)
3—Paul Nicholls (28/139 – loss of 13 points)
3—Harry Fry (12/44 +5)
3—Dai Williams (0/1)
2—Alan King (10/67 – loss of 14 points)
2—Jonjo O’Neill (4/54 – loss of 12 points)
2—Tom Symonds (2/8 +18)
+ 20 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
54 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Castterick: This is a new meeting on the racing calendar
Ffos Las: £36.70 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Newcastle A/W: £140.80 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced