CHELTENHAM - OCTOBER 27
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £245.40 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Cheltenham:
Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Blairs Cove), 2 (Its All Guesswork) & 3 (Brillare Momento)
Leg 2 (2.35): 5 (Movewiththetimes) & 13 (Sceau Royal)
Leg 3 (3.10): 18 (Master Dancer), 15 (Vivas), 17 (One Forty Seven) & 16 (Golan Fortune)
Leg 4 (3.45): 3 (Fagan) & 1 (Black Corton)
Leg 5 (4.20): 8 (Petite Power), 6 (Azure Fly), 4 (Capard King) & 2 (Indian Castle)
Leg 6 (4.55): 7 (Slate House) & 5 (Gortroe Joe)
Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: Horses carrying 11-1 or more have generally dominated this event, whilst five-year-olds have won five of the nine contests, coming to the gig on a four-timer on this occasion. BLAIRS COVE and ITS ALL GUESSWORK stand out from the crown as far as vintage representatives are concerned this time around, whilst both horses hail from the ‘superior’ sector of the weights. Local trainer Martin Keighley loves nothing better than saddling winners at Prestbury Park and his course winner BRILLARE MOMENTO boasts obvious claims.
Favourite factor: Six of the nine favourites (four winners) have finished in the frame, the Placepot casualties having been sent off at 4/6-2/1-9/4. The 2014 (9/4) favourite was withdrawn before a new market could be formed. Investors who had included the withdrawn market leader (Blacklion) in their Placepot wagers made it safely through to the second leg as the second favourite finished in the frame. According to Placepot rules, if the market leader does not run and a new market has not been formed, all units are transferred onto the second favourite.
Record of the course winner in the opening event:
1/3—Brillare Momento (good)
2.35: Paul Nicholls has saddled fifteen winners at this two day fixture during the last five years and having secured winners of two of the last three runners when represented in this contest, MOVEWITHTHETIMES has to be the call. Receiving five pounds from the penalised SCEAU ROYAL, Paul’s runner up in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury (when last seen) only has to jump fences safely to go very close over the bigger obstacles at the first time of asking. That said, SCEAU ROYAL ‘deserves’ his penalty and the experienced gained over fences already should ensure that there is not much daylight between the pair in a fascinating contest, the type of race which makes Cheltenham such a special venue. North Hill Harvey and Ballyhill (beaten four and a half lengths at level weights by Sceau Royal last time out) more than deserve their respective places in the line up, albeit the first named pair might have to make serious blunders in order for a surprise result’ to ensue. You will not the wording of surprising rather than shocking, which offers the ‘lesser pair’ the respect they deserve.
Favourite factor: The last eleven winners have scored at 7/1 or less, statistics which include six successful market leaders. Ten of the last eleven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.
Record of the course winner in the second race:
1/4—Mick Thonis (good)
2/4—Sceau Royal (good & soft)
2/4—North Hill Harvey (2 x soft)
3.10: Five-year-olds lead the six-year-olds 5-3 via the last nine contests, whilst nine winners during the last decade carried a maximum weight of 11-1. 13/20 runners could be eliminated via the weight trend if you take the stats seriously, whilst the only four horses to possess ticks in both of the relevant boxes are MASTER DANCER, VIVAS, ONE FORTY SEVEN and GOLAN FORTUNE. I will adhere to my ‘anorak’ trends this time around whilst stating that the quartet are listed in marginal order of preference. If I had to pick out a main danger to the said ‘selections’, Rightdownthemiddle would be the call, given that Gordon Elliott is the only trainer to have won this race on more than one occasion in the last ten years, having saddled far less horses in the race than plenty of other trainers during the decade.
Favourite factor: Successful favourites have only been conspicuous by their absence during the last eleven years, though five of the last seven market leaders have (at least) finished in the frame.
3.45: Although his last seven runners have been beaten, Gordon Elliott still boasts recent stats of 9/23 and with the stable having won two of the last seven renewals, FAGAN is taken to score on behalf of the yard. Gordon saddled a beaten six-year-old favourite twelve months ago but reverts to the vintage which gave him his two relevant victories in recent times; hence I am opting for Gordon’s seven-year-old representative. Beat That has never been the hardiest of warrior from my viewpoint, whereby I believe the biggest threats to the Irish raider are BLACK CORTIN and BALLYMALIN.
Favourite factor: 15 of the last 16 winners have scored at odds of 9/1 or less, with six favourites scoring for good measure. 11 of the last 15 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include five successful market leaders from a win perspective.
4.20: I have been stating for some time now that Fergal O’Brien is the underrated trainer at Cheltenham which as so often proves to be the case, the trainer having lifted this prize with my short listed selection Troika Steppes at 14/1 twelve months ago. The case for PETITE POWER is not quite as strong this time around with a less experienced amateur rider in the plate but that said, Fergal has pulled so many rabbits out of the hat at this venue down the years and I remain loyal to the trainer. My trio of selected dangers to the tentative selection consists of AZURE FLY, CAPARD KING and INDIAN CASTLE.
Favourite factor: Seven renewals had slipped by without a successful market leader was recorded until two of the last six favourites obliged. Six of the last thirteen favourites have finished in the frame in a race which opened the meeting for as long as I can remember until 2011. This is a far better position for the race to be staged for we ‘Potters’ as we can ‘lay off’ from a Placepot perspective if we have serious returns to anticipate, presuming we have made it safely through to the fifth leg of our favourite wager.
Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on the card:
1/6—Indian Castle (heavy)
1/3—Regal Flow (good)
4.55: Five and six-year-olds have shared eight of the last eleven contests though with four-year-olds having won three of the last four contests, the jury is out relating to vintage trends. SLATE HOUSE is the obvious Placepot route to take, whilst GORTROE JOE is the nominated threat in by far the least interesting race on the card.
Favourite factor: 13 of the last 15 winners have been sent off at odds of 6/1 or less, stats which include six successful market leaders. 12 market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science) during the last 14 years.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Cheltenham card on Friday – followed by their ratios at Cheltenham last season + profits/losses accrued
6 runners—Nigel Twiston-Davies (7/55 – loss of 9 points)
5—Gordon Elliott (7/69 +36)
5—Martin Keighley (1/22 – loss of 12 points)
4—Sophie Leech (1/6 +15)
4—Dan Skelton (1/33 – loss of 26 points)
4—Tim Vaughan (0/13)
3—Nicky Henderson (10/80 – loss of 37 points)
3—Charlie Longsdon (2/17 +1)
3—Paul Nicholls (7/77 – loss of 28 points)
3—Colin Tizzard (7/69 – loss of 4 points)
2—Peter Bowen (0/2)
2—Johnny Farrelly (0/2)
2—Philip Hobbs (5/50 – loss of 29 points)
2—Jonjo O’Neill (4/39 +15)
2—Jamie Snowden (1/6 – Slight profit)
2—Ian Williams (1/9 +4)
+ 21 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
78 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Doncaster: £128.60 – 7 runners – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced
Newbury: £326.00 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced
Wolverhampton: £30.00 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced