SOUTHWELL – DECEMBER 29
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £92.50 (7 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 5 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Southwell:
Leg 1 (12.15): 4 (Mr Carbonator) & 2 (Felisa)
Leg 2 (12.45): 6 (Street Sensation), 7 (Crystal Deauville) & 5 (Magic Pulse)
Leg 3 (1.15): 4 (Beyond Recall) & 3 (The Great Wall)
Leg 4 (1.50): 1 (Vercingetorex), 3 (Katie Gale) & 5 (Wordiness)
Leg 5 (2.25): 3 (Piazon), 2 (Captain Lars) & 7 (Penny Dreadful)
Leg 6 (3.00): 9 (Scotch Myst) & 8 (Satchville Flyer)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.15: All four winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-4 thus far and I fully expect the trend to be extended, especially with MR CARBONATOR and FELISA having been declared. The first name raider hails from Phil Kirby’s yard which boasts 4/9 stats at the venue this season, figures which have produced 11 points of level stake profit. The fact that MR CARBONATOR is the only course winner in the line up adds icing on the cake. FELISA can be expected to be there or thereabouts as is usually the case, with the alternative each way option being awarded to Progressive Jazz.
Favourite factor: Only two of the six favourites (via just four renewals) have secured Placepot positions, stats which include one successful (13/8) market leader from a win perspective.
Record of the course winners in the opening event:
12.45: The problem with Richard Fahey runners at all weather venues is that his runners tend to dominate the market, even if it is only odds compilers pricing up his runner to the exclusion of all other initially, before betting the relevant rivals around Richard’s representative. On this occasion, Richard’s STREET SENSATION showed little on debut, albeit after a tardy start which complicates matters still further, especially as this is a Street Cry representative and as much as the stock can be truly outstanding individuals, they can also by temperamental to say the least. CRYSTAL DEAUVILLE and MAGIC PULSE are added into the mix accordingly, especially as this ‘dead eight’ contest would take on a whole new meaning if a non runner reared its ugly head prior to flag fall.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Southwell card.
1.15: This is a match event in all but name and with Archie Watson having won with four of the eleven runners he has saddled here at Southwell this year, his only runner on the card BEYOND RECALL demands plenty of respect. Michael Appleby has built up a strong following of supporters on all weather tracks down the years but as you can see by the figures at the foot of the column, the trainer’s actual strike rate in nothing out of the ordinary and as much as THE GREAT WALL is the only other horse mentioned in despatches, BEYOND RECALL is preferred, especially at the prices on offer.
Favourite factor: The four market leaders have secured a pair of gold and silver medals whilst claiming Placepot positions to date.
1.50: All four winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-9 which confirms the chance of VERCINGETORIX who should sit bang on that mark with a five pound claimer in the plate. I note that there is a fair amount of money waiting on the exchanges in the positive queue at big prices about course winner KATIE GALE, whilst WORDINESS completes my trio against the remaining five contenders.
Favourite factor: Although favourites have won two of the four contest at odds of 2/1** and 11/10, the other three market leaders all missed out on Placepot positions.
Record of the course winners in the fourth race:
1/3—Rule Of The Nile
2.25: CAPTAIN LARS returns to defend his crown and the claimer potentially puts Derek Shaw’s eight-year-old well in here by comparison to last year’s figures. Life rarely works out as simply as that of course, especially when you have a predator (PIAZON) in the field which boasts a 5/9 record at one of of the toughest tracks in the land to build impressive stats. Throw the alternative win and place option PENNY DREADFUL into the works and we can deduce that ‘the double’ for the captain is no gimme twelve months on.
Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites have ‘troubled the judge’ from a Placepot perspective, though only last year’s 4/1** has prevailed thus far.
Record of the course winners in the fifth contest:
3.00: This race should come with a government health warning attached which I have tried to ‘advertise’ by my words in the ‘favourite factor’ details immediately below. The chance for SCOTCH MYST is this grade/company is there for all to see if you are brave enough to take the race on, whilst I guess a similar comment could apply to SATCHVILLE FLYER on this pick of his form. The fact that SCOTCH MYST has won here before just about seals the Placepot deal from my viewpoint. I hope you continue to enjoy the festivities leading into the New Year. My ‘drug intake’ has hit record levels unfortunately! Stay warm, stay well.
Favourite factor: Only one of the four market leaders has raised any sort of gallop by claiming a bronze gong to date, the race being perfectly illustrated in bleak fashion last year when the 3/1 favourite finished last of twelve behind a 50/1 winner.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Southwell card on Friday – followed by their seasonal ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:
7 runners—Scott Dixon (7/138 +3)
4—Michael Appleby (17/145 – loss of 47 points)
3—John Balding (4/33 +3)
3—Roy Bowring (2/21 – loss of 9 points)
3—David Evans (11/67 +15)
3—Richard Fahey (10/35 +9)
2—David Brown (4/19 – loss of 6 points)
2—John Butler (4/40 – loss of 19 points)
2—Ann Duffield (1/13 – loss of 2 points)
2—Brian Ellison (0/13)
2—David C Griffiths (5/21 +21)
2—Phil Kirby (4/9 +11)
2—Daniel Mark Loughnane (7/37 +21)
2—Sir Mark Prescott (2/6 – loss of 2 points)
+ 25 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
64 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Doncaster: £577.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced