NEWMARKET - SEPTEMBER 29
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £85.10 (7 favourites - 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket:
Leg 1 (1.50): 5 (Muffri’Ha), 8 (On Her Toes) & 1 (Lincoln Rocks)
Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (To Eternity), 5 (Elas Ruby) & 1 (Elbereth)
Leg 3 (3.00): 5 (Gavota), 9 (Nyaleti) & 8 (Lightening Quick)
Leg 4 (3.35): 7 (Beat The Bank) & 8 (Sir John Lavery)
Leg 5 (4.10): 3 (Coat Of Arms) & 13 (Thrave)
Leg 6 (4.45): 2 (Frontiersman), 7 (Best Of Days) & 3 (Red Galileo)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.50: Three-year-olds lead the four-year-olds 4-2, albeit via just six renewals which have been contested thus far. William Haggas has saddled four winners on this corresponding day during the last five years and the trainer appears to have quite a strong hand here having declared MUFFRI’HA and ON HER TOES. Both horses have won under the projected (good to soft) conditions and from a Placepot perspective at the very least, this pair are the first names on Friday’s team sheet. David O’Meara is slowly but surely getting his act back together following a very ordinary year by his high standards. That said, LINCOLN ROCKS has been one of his more consistent performers and as another good to soft winner in the line up, David’s top weight is expected to give win and place investors a decent run for their collective monies.
Favourite factor: Four of the seven favourites (we still await the first winner) have secured Placepot positions to date.
Record of course winners in the opening race:
2/6—Muffri’Ha (good & good to firm)
2.25: Sir Michael Stoute has secured two of the last seven renewals though the yielding ground conditions are (seemingly) against his projected market leader Mori on this occasion. I prefer John Gosden’s pair TO ETERNITY and ELAS RUBY, with John seeking a hat trick in the race. Two of Andrew Balding’s last three runners won yesterday and I would not dismiss the each way chance of ELBERETH in a wide open contest, despite what the projected starting prices are implying.
Favourite factor: Favourites of one description or another have won five of the last six renewals, make that seven of the last eleven if you want to delve back into the past a little further. During that time, ten of the eleven gold medallists scored at a top price of 7/1, whilst eleven of the last twelve market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.
3.00: Some big investors are still licking their wounds following the defeat of Fair Eva in this contest twelve months ago, though with bookmakers likely to offer 3/1 field this time around, not too many scars should be in evidence the other side of the weekend. Three unbeaten fillies are among the ten declarations, the pick of which should prove to be GAVOTA and LIGHTENING QUICK, the pair being listed in marginal order of preference. Mark Johnston improved his Newmarket ratio yesterday and having declared his tough Arch filly NYALETI, there is a chance that Mark could treble the tally that stood place in place on the Rowley Mile course this season before the three day fixture started.
Favourite factor: Although only one favourite has scored via the last ten renewals (including the demise of last year’s 4/9 jolly), six of the last eleven market leaders have claimed Placepot positions. Nine of the last eleven winners have scored at 11/1 or less.
3.35: Three-year-olds have won nine of the last nineteen renewals of this Group 3 contest, though vintage representatives have not covered themselves in glory in recent times. BEAT THE BANK and SIR JOHN LAVERY have decent chances of helping the race to ‘return to type’, with both sets of connections appreciating the softening conditions at Newmarket these last few days. Indeed, rain is set to fall during the day which will particularly support the chance of Aidan O’Brien’s latter named Galileo colt. This pair will represent yours truly, though I’ll offer a word of encouragement about outsider Whisky Baron who could outrun his odds. Making his British debut having completed a five-timer eight months ago, lack of race fitness might be more of an issue than the rivals he meets here, given that connections have targeted a Group 2 event which is not the strongest of contests from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: Five clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last 20 years, though just three of the other 16 market leaders additionally secured toteplacepot positions.
Record of course winners in the fourth event:
1/5—Custom Cut (good)
1/1—Beat The Bank (good to soft)
1/2—Whitecliffsofdover (good to firm)
4.10: It’s not all that often that Aidan O’Brien targets juvenile maiden events at this three day meeting, much preferring to let his established runners do the talking on behalf of the yard, especially with so much prize money on offer. Aidan has declared his well exposed Galileo colt COAT OF ARMS on this occasion and with a lack of ‘jungle dreams’ beating for any of the newcomers, Aidan’s (very late) May foal should prove to be the horse to beat. THRAVE did precious little wrong on his first day at school on the other playground in this part of the country, whereby Henry Candy’s Sir Percy colt could repeat his silver medal debut performance on the July course.
Favourite factor: Five favourites have obliged during the last twelve years, whilst eight market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science) during the study period.
4.45: Although the ground is something of a worry regarding the three Godolphin runners who are trying to win ‘their own race’ between them, it would be churlish in the extreme to cast their chances aside. Of the three, RED GALILEO possibly offers the best value, given his half decent efforts on good to soft ground to date. That said, FRONTIERSMAN and BEST OF DAYS look to be a class apart if conditions remain reasonable, both having won at this meeting twelve months ago.
Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:
2/2—Frontiersman (2 x good to firm)
1/1—Best Of Days (good to firm)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Newmarket card on Friday with their number of winners on the corresponding card during the last five years:
5 runners—William Haggas (4 winners)
4—Ralph Beckett (1)
4—Aidan O’Brien (1)
4—Sir Michael Stoute (1)
3—David Elsworth (1)
3—James Fanshawe (1)
3—John Gosden (8)
3—Charlie Hills (1)
3—David O’Meara (2)
3—Hugo Palmer (1)
3—Roger Varian (1)
+ 28 trainers with one runner
84 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Haydock: £37.80 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 4 placed – 1 unplaced
Worcester: £30.40 – 7 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced
Newcastle: £463.60 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced