WETHERBY – NOVEMBER 3
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £103.50 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Wetherby:
Leg 1 (12.50): 7 (Caged Lightning), 2 (Alfie’s Choice) & 8 (Schnabel)
Leg 2 (1.25): 2 (Some Invitation), 3 (Very First Time) & 1 (Work Du Breteau)
Leg 3 (2.00): 4 (Malaya), 1 (City Dreamer) & 3 (Eneko)
Leg 4 (2.35): 1 (Guitar Pete) & 2 (Indian Stream)
Leg 5 (3.10): 5 (Sailors Warn), 4 (Aniknam) & 6 (Minello Fiveo)
Leg 6 (3.45): 9 (Plane Nine) & 2 (Carlos Du Fruitier)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.50: I have to apologise in advance if this analysis offers less detail than usual as I’m suffering a really nasty bout of ‘Man flu’ today – no harsh comments please ladies! Upwards and onward by announcing that eight of the nine winners have carried a minimum burden of 10-9 whereby three horses in the list are eliminated from my enquiries, taking potential jockey claims into consideration. CAGED LIGHTNING is something of a dark horse having his first run in the NH sector for 20 months, though his effort on the level two weeks ago bodes well for his chance in this grade/company, providing the dreaded ‘bounce factor’ does not play its part. Others for consideration include ALFIE’S CHOICE and SCHNABEL.
Favourite factor: Six of the last seven favourites have finished in the frame, stats which include one winner. Eight of the nine gold medallists thus far have been returned in double figures including Traffiker at 16/1, who was one of only three horses mentioned in the analysis by yours truly a few years back.
1.25: When three runner ‘win only’ events rear their ugly heads on a Friday afternoon (especially in the novice chase sector) I can be seen running for cover from miles away, and this event finds yours truly in exactly that position, especially when feeling sorry for oneself! I’m not going to make the excuse that it the ‘illness’ which is making me cut and run here as I would have been likely to offer the same scenario had I been ‘fully fit’, though I can’t remember when that description was last relevant to this excuse of a body. SOME INVITATION is expected to lead home VERY FIRST TIME and WORK DU BRETEAU in that order, though all three horses will be included in my Placepot equation.
Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include two (11/10 & 5/4) winners.
Record of the course winner in the second race:
1/1—Some Invitation (good to soft)
2.00: Paul Nicholls has won with two of this last three runners in this event and MALAYA should account for CITY DREAMER and ENEKO in receipt of weight from two useful rivals. Both horses have won their last two assignments but MALAYA holds a favourite’s chance from my viewpoint, with American Craftsman (respectfully) being cast aside in this grade/company.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won five of the last thirteen events though alongside a 200/1 winner seven years ago, other gold medallists during the period scored at 28/1-18/1-12/1.
Record of the course winner in the third contest:
1/1—American Craftsman (good)
2.35: Seven-year-olds have won four of the last seven renewals and in GUITAR PETE, the vintage has a decent representative to take on the likes of last year’s winner INDIAN STREAM and fellow seven-year-old ROYAL VACATION. Sametegal is useful on his day but the Paul Nicholls raider will not represent value for money after a long lay-off from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: Eleven of the eighteen market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions during the last fifteen years, with six favourites having won during the period. Ten of the last thirteen gold medallists were returned at odds of 5/1 or less though that said, two of the last four winners scored at 25/1 & 20/1.
Record of the course winner in the fourth event on the card:
1/2—Royal Invitation (good to soft)
1/1—Indian Stream (good)
1/1—Sametegal (good to soft)
3.10: Ian Williams has had his team in fine fettle for some time now and I cannot ignore that fact that the trainer sends out SAILORS WARN just four days after contesting a race on the level at Leicester. This could be the race that makes or breaks the Placepot dividend today, especially if an ugly non-runner dilutes the race down from its ‘dead eight’ format at the time of writing. Either way, ANIKNAM and MINELLO FIVEO are added into the mix from a value for money perspective.
Favourite factor: The first two (2/1 and 11/4) favourites finished out of the frame before last year’s 9/4 market leader sneaked into a Placepot position when snaring a bronze medal.
Record of the course winner in the fifth race:
1/2—Artisto Du Plessis (good)
3.45: Five-year-olds have won six of the last twelve renewals and either PLANET NINE or CARLOS DU FRUITIER should add to their number in the Placepot finale.
Favourite factor: Seven of the thirteen market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include four successful market leaders.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Wetherby card on Friday – followed by stats at the track this season alongside profit/loss figures:
4 runners—Phil Kirby (0/5)
3—Micky Hammond (0/2)
2—David Dennis (No previous runners this season)
2—Tim Easterby (1/8 +2)
2—James Moffat (1/2 +7)
2—Barry Murtagh (No previous runners this season)
2—Paul Nicholls (No previous runners this season)
2—Nicky Richards (No previous runners this season)
2—Sue Smith (0/8)
2—Ian Williams (No previous runners this season)
+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
49 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Newmarket: £108.40 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced
Uttoxeter: £218.30 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced
Newcastle A/W: £545.00 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced