GOODWOOD – AUGUST 4
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £150.90 (7 favourites – 4 winners & 3 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Goodwood:
Leg 1 (1.50): 3 (Lord Yeats), 2 (Frontiersman) & 7 (Second Step)
Leg 2 (2.25): 11 (Zainholm), 2 (Beat The Bank) & 5 (Forest Ranger)
Leg 3 (3.00): 22 (Masham Star), 7 (Tony Curtis) & 21 (Sir Roderic)
Leg 4 (3.35): 5 (Profitable) & 6 (Take Cover)
Leg 5 (4.10): 5 (Gift In Time), 11 (Milton Road) & 3 (Carouse)
Leg 6 (4.40): 16 (Tomyris), 13 (Cristal Fizz) & 6 (Sainted)
Suggested stake: 486 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.50: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last sixteen renewals, whilst securing 14 of the last 28 available toteplacepot positions. Four-year-olds are around the 8/13 mark to extend their good run from a win perspective, via five representatives on this occasion. LORD YEATS comes to the gig on a hat trick as a previous soft ground winner which suggests that P J McDonald’s should be the first name on the team sheet. FRONTIERSMAN cannot be left out of the Placepot mix, whilst Roger Charlton’s first Goodwood runner of the week (SECOND STEP) will not mind the tacky conditions as much as some of the other declarations.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won during the last 20 years, whilst 12 of the 22 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.
Record of course winners in the opening event:
1/1—Poet’s Word (good to firm)
1/2—Second Step (good to firm)
2.25: I was far from certain about the ground for Sir Michael Stoute’s runner in the opening event (Poet’s Word) but ZAINHOLM should get through the sticky stuff well enough in this grade/company to go close. The 11/2 quotes by PP & ‘Vic’ make some appeal for sure, albeit this is a tough event to assess. It would be as well for all concerned if the remaining eight runners stand their ground and if so, BEAT THE BANK and FOREST RANGER would complete my trio against the other five contenders. This pair met up at Newmarket last time out when Andrew Balding progressives Paco Boy gelding (Beat The Bank) won with plenty to spare. This ground might just bring the pair closer together this afternoon.
Favourite factor: 12 of the last 22 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four winners.
3.00: Mark Johnston has saddled three of the last five winners of the contest when represented and his three-year-old raider MASHAM STAR is his only runner on this occasion. It’s worth noting that MASHAM STAR is the only vintage raider in the field, given that junior representatives have won four of the last nine renewals. Mark’s Lawman colt is proven under conditions whereby his 22/1 quote with Ladbrokes and Coral makes plenty of each way appeal. 25/1 about the chance for Sir Roderic (2/3 on soft ground) is also something of an insult from my viewpoint, whilst it’s worth noting that on a day which ‘Team Hannon’ has dominated (eight winners during the last six years), TONY CURTIS is their only runner on the card. 2/2 track stats also catch the eye about 28/1 chance GOSSIPING, albeit Gary Moore’s representative has no form on under these type of conditions. That said, Gary remains unbeaten here this week following his 100/1 winner on the opening day of the meeting!
Favourite factor: Three favourites have prevailed in the last 20 years, whilst eleven market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.
Record of course winners in the third contest on the card:
1/3—Zhui Feng (good to firm)
2/2—Gossiping (good to firm & good)
3.35: It is impossible to ignore the win and place claims of TAKE COVER, the ten-year-old having snared two gold medals and one of the silver variety (at 20/1) during the last three renewals! David Griffiths deserves particular credit for keeping the old boy in fine form, as advertised perfectly when his Singspiel gelding won on the Knavesmire last time out. Whether David Allen’s mount will be competitive in these conditions remains unknown, though we are aware that connections of PROFITABLE have no such worries. There will be worse outsiders on the day than YALTA I’ll wager, especially as the 40/1 chance stands at 2/2 on the track thus far, albeit both victories were gained on good ground.
Favourite factor: Six favourites have scored during the last 20 years, whilst eleven market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.
Record of course winners in the fourth race:
2/4—Take Ciover (2 x good to firm)
2/2—Yalta (2 x good)
4.10: The last 13 winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-3, statistics which makes the task of Rufus King that much harder, given that Mark Johnston’ s raider is asked to give a minimum 18 pounds to his rivals. The pick of the remaining ten contenders (at the time of writing) could prove to be GIFT IN TIME, CAROUSE and MILTON ROAD. The latter named Mick Channon raider is on offer at 25/1 with Bet365 and ‘Vic’ this morning and being as short as 16/1 elsewhere. Those odds could (perhaps should) be accommodated to minimum stakes, especially with a 1/1 track record on good to soft ground under his belt.
Favourite factor: Five clear market leaders, one co and one joint favourite have scored during the study period, whilst 12 of the last 20 jollies have reached the frame. That said, Seven of the last 17 winners of this nursery event have scored at 25/1--20/1--20/1--16/1--12/1--10/1--10/1.
Record of course winners in the fifth event:
1/1—Milton Road (good to soft)
4.40: Three-year-olds have won 14 of the last 20 renewals and vintage representatives are around the 10/11 mark to extend the good run before the form book is consulted, as long as further non-runners fail to rear their ugly heads before flag fall. The pick of the relevant entries include TOMYRIS and CRISTAL FIZZ. If the vintage trend is to be breached in the Placepot finale however, SAINTED is the likely spoiler from my viewpoint. It’s interesting that William Haggas saddles the latter name pair offering a three and a four-year-old into the mix, given that four-year-olds have made something of a fightback having won four races during the last decade. The reserve nomination is awarded to PERFECT ANGEL.
Favourite factor: Five favourites have won during the last 20 years, whilst 12 of the 20 market leaders throughout the study period claimed toteplacepot positions.
Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/1—Al Jazi (good to firm)
1/1—Perfect Angel (good)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Represented winning trainers at Goodwood this week with their relevant number of runners on Friday:
2 winners—Richard Hannon (7/1 & 10/3*) – 1 runner at Goodwood today
2 winners—Mark Johnston (12/1 & 9/1) – 7 runners
2 winners—David Simcock (50/1 & 8/1) – 3 runners
1 winner—Charlie Appleby (5/2*) – 5 runners
1 winner—Andrew Balding (20/1) – 4 runners
1 winner—John Gosden (6/1) – 4 runners
1 winner—Gary Moore (100/1) – 1 runner
1 winner—Aidan O’Brien (10/11*) – 2 runners
1 winner—Sir Michael Stoute (7/4*) – 4 runners
1 winner—Roger Varian (15/2) – 3 runners
1 winner—Ian Williams (25/1) – 1 runner
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Bath: £8.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 placed
Musselburgh: £57.30 – 6 favourites – No winners – 4 placed – 2 unplaced
Newmarket: £31.80 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced
Thirsk: £59.80 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced
Bangor: £29.00 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced