NEWBURY – MARCH 4
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £110.20 (7 favourites: 2 winners--3 placed--2 unplaced)
Average Placepot dividend (all codes) in 2016 (calendar year): £613.83
Average NH Placepot dividend in 2016: £913.00
Average Newbury Placepot dividend in 2016: £601.30 (1 meeting)
Favourite records at Newbury in 2016:
7 races - 7 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced (exact science)
Odds on ratio: 0/2
Quick stat: Paul Nicholls has only saddled five runners at this meeting in as many years during which time, the quintet of representatives were all beaten, statistics which include three favourites at 5/2, 2/1 and even money.
Friday's Placepot permutation at Newbury:
Leg 1 (2.20): 2 (Seven Kingdoms) & 1 (Favoroto Buck's)
Leg 2 (2.50): 10 (Walking In The Ayr) & 6 (Nice N Easy)
Leg 3 (3.25): 9 (Walk In The Mill), 1 (Artifice Sivola) & 2 (Ut Majeur Aulmes)
Leg 4 (4.00): 1 (Ballyadeen) & 7 (Mystafiable)
Leg 5 (4.30): 1 (Super Scorpion), 4 (Mountain Eagle) & 6 (Dubh Eile)
Leg 6 (5.05): 2 (Monetary Fund) & 1 (Kilcullen Flem)
Suggested stake: 144 bets at 20p stakes
2.20: David Dennis was consistently saddling winners until the end of January before his horses seemed to go off the boil in February when the trainer recorded figures of 1/16. It will be interesting to see how his Kempton winner SEVEN KINGDOMS copes with the Paul Nicholls raider FAVORITO BUCK'S who can only run a better race than on debut in this country at Kempton in a warm contest. Backed down to favouritism that day, the Auteuil winner creates plenty of interest in this opening event. ZANTE could emerge as the pick of the newcomers.
Favourite factor: Eight of the last 19 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three winners. 14 of the last 17 winners scored at odds of 8/1 or less.
2.50: Five-year-olds lead the six-year-olds 8-4 via the 13 renewals to date and combined vintage representatives are 1/4 to extend the domination before the form book is assessed via eight of the 10 declarations this time around. Seven-year-old Coole Charmer might be fancied to breach the trend though as a self confessed 'anorak' who relies on his stats to decent effect most the of time, WALKING IN THE AIR and NICE N EASY are preferred.
Favourite factor: Nine of the 13 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include four gold medallists.
3.25: 10 of the last 17 winners carried weights of 11-4 or less which suggests that WALK IN THE MILL might reward each way investors, especially as six-year-olds have secured four of the last eight contests. ARTIFICE SIVOLA is the other vintage representative in the field, whilst UT MAJEUR AULMES completes my trio against the remaining seven contenders.
Favourite factor: Eight clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won via the last 17 renewals. 11 of the 19 'jollies' have reached the frame during the study period, using an exact (place) science as you will always find on these pages.
Newbury record of course winners in the third race:
1/2--Festive Affair (C&D)
4.00: Eight-year-olds have won six of the 14 renewals to date, though seven-year-olds have weighed in with three victories during the last seven years. The pick of the three eight-year-olds in the line up should prove to be BALLYADEEN and MYSTAFIABLE. SPECIAL AGENT and WILD ROVER are expected to lead the quartet of seven-year-olds home.
Favourite factor: Seven of the 15 favourites to date have claimed toteplacepot positions (two winners--within the last seven years). That said, all 15 winners have been returned at odds of 12/1 or less, as have all 37 horses which have claimed toteplacepot positions.
4.30: Six-year-olds come to the gig having won four of the last six renewals, whilst it's also worth noting that although the trio of six-year-olds were beaten three years ago, two individuals snared silver and bronze medals at 12/1 and 11/2. Two of the 11 entries represent the vintage this time around, with SUPER SCORPION readily preferred to Muhtaris. Seven-year-olds also have a half decent record whereby MOUNTAIN EAGLE enters the equation alongside DUBH EILE.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won five of the 14 renewals to date, whilst 10 of the 18 market leaders finished in the frame.
5.05: Moneytary Fund bucks the trend of the majority of horses in the Venetia Williams camp as this is a representative which doesn't mind running on half decent ground, whereby the ten-year-old figures in the overnight mix. Others to peruse over your favourite late night tipple/early morning beverage include KILCULLEN FLEM and THEATRE GOER.
Favourite factor: The two 4/1 joint favourites in last year's inaugural contest could only manage a bronze medal (alongside a Placepot position) between them.