KEMPTON – JANUARY 5
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £152.80 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Kempton:
Leg 1 (5.45): 1 (Jans Joy), 3 (Inuk) & 2 (Be Mindful)
Leg 2 (6.15): 4 (Broughtons Fancy), 5 (New Rich) & 2 (Chip Or Pellet)
Leg 3 (6.45): 4 (Burauq), 5 (Olaudah) & 2 (Mossy’s Lodge)
Leg 4 (7.15): 1 (Bardd) & 2 (Night Of Glory)
Leg 5 (7.45): 7 (Erinyes) & 8 (Boychick)
Leg 6 (8.15): 2 (Kadrizzi), 1 (Eljaddaaf) & 3 (Kodaline)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
5.45: Bookmakers are leaning on the right side of an each way quote about JANS JOY from their perspective and although the money in the positive queue on the exchanges is fanciful in terms of what might be offered later this morning, the Stuart Williams raider in the first name on my team sheet, especially as the trainer leads the way at this corresponding meeting during its brief history. INUK might be offered at an inflated price because of his outside draw but with only nine declared contenders, 3/1 could represent a half decent price should such odds be chalked up at some stage prior to flag fall. Charlie Hills saddles his first runner of the year and BE MINDFUL could prove to be a serious threat to the first named pair on her handicap bow.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Kempton card with which to open proceedings.
Course winner in the opening event:
6.15: Five-year-olds have won two of the last three renewals whilst claiming four of the nine available Placepot positions. CHIP OR PELLET and BROUGHTONS FANCY should lead the relevant contenders home on this occasion, with the latter named raider representing Karen Tutty who has saddled three of her last five runners to winning effect. Eve Johnson Houghton did us a nice favour on New Year’s Eve and her first subsequent runner NEW RICH cannot be left out of the equation, particularly from a Placepot perspective.
Favourite factor: The only favourite of four to date to claim a Placepot position did so by winning the relevant contest at 10/3.
Course winner in the second race:
6.45: The pick of the five-year-olds in this second heat of the previous event on the card should prove to be MOSSY’S LODGE, though an 18/1 chance raises the eyebrows given the Bet365 quote about last year’s beaten (5/4) favourite BURAUQ who is an short as 11/1 with some firms. The lack of interest on the exchanges about Pulsating is surely accounted for via yesterday’s victory, whereby OLAUDAH is the obvious option of the two projected ‘shorties’ in the betting.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous event on the cards whereby the same stats apply.
Course winners in the third contest on the card:
7.15: At the respective prices of 4/7 and 11/4 offered at the time of writing, BARDD would have to be the value for money call over NIGHT OF GLORY here, albeit Andrew Balding’s hot pot has shown plenty of ability. Seven assignments have come and gone since NIGHT OF GLORY gained his only success to date, having been sent off at a top price of 4/1 on five of those occasions (dual beaten favourite). BARDD represents Nicky Henderson who has scored with nine of his last seventeen runners; hence the 11/4 ‘shout’. Firmage Burg is not totally without claims but from a Placepot permutation viewpoint, I have to draw the line somewhere.
Favourite factor: This is another of the new races on the Kempton programme.
7.45: ERINYES (stable companion of the likely non-runner Pulsating earlier on the card) is potentially Archie Watson’s only raider here on Friday and in first time blinds from an inside draw, Oisin Murphy’s mount should figure prominently enough to warrant Placepot interest at the very least. BOYCHICK has finished ‘in the two’ eight times via the last nine assignments and though Ed Walker’s Holy Roman Emperor gelding has not been seen for a long while, his chance is there for all to see in this grade/company. Status Quo is the dark horse in the field, whilst Flight Of Fantasy represent little value for money from my viewpoint at the 2/1 odds on offer.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 3/1 favourite finished just out of the Placepot positions behind horses which filled the frame at 14/1, 5/1 & 20/1.
Course winners in the fifth race:
8.15: Five-year-olds have won two of the three renewals thus far which is a decent return given that just a lone 14/1 chance represented the vintage in the other contest. KADRIZZI is the speculative each way call accordingly, especially as trainer Dean Ivory landed a nice 40/1 forecast for yours truly in a race at Chelmsford last time via my analysis at the Essex venue. Indeed, Dean has also declared course specialist ELJADDAAF in the contest, whilst KODALINE is another option in an interesting last leg of our favourite wager.
Favourite factor: All three market leaders have ’troubled the judge’ thus far by claiming Placepot positions, stat which include one successful (7/2) favourite.
Course winners in the Placepot finale:
2/8—Born To Finish
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Kempton card on Friday – followed by their career ratios at the track + level profits/losses accrued:
3 runners—John Bridger (38/794 – loss of 369 points)
2—Andrew Balding (128/896 – loss of 110)
2—Milton Bradley (29/494 – loss of 272)
2—Tony Carroll (110/1186 – loss of 372)
2—Simon Dow (36/415 – loss of 131)
2—David Evans (67/734 – loss of 291)
2—Harry Fry (1/4 – loss of 1)
2—Roger Ingram (15/273 +21)
2—Dean Ivory (75/755 – loss of 33)
2—Eve Johnson Houghton (33/381 – loss of 113)
2—Tony Newcombe (17/162 – loss of 74 points)
2—Jamie Osborne (58/522 – loss of 100)
2—John O’Shea (8/111 – loss of 52)
2—Mark Pattinson (2/10 +6)
2—Ed Walker (29/209 – loss of 50)
2—Archie Watson (8/29 +4)
2—Stuart Williams (3/52 – loss of 37)
+ 38 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
73 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Wetherby: £18.00 – 9 favourites – 3 winners – 5 placed – 1 unplaced