ASCOT – OCTOBER 6
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £7,215.20 (6 favourites - No winners - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Ascot:
Leg 1 (2.10): 11 (Alaadel), 4 (Shady McCoy), 10 (Esprit De Corps) & 12 (Cricklewood Green)
Leg 2 (2.35): 8 (Golden Goal), 2 (Heaven’s Guest) & 7 (Zwayyan)
Leg 3 (3.10): 5 (Nobly Born), 2 (Ekhtiyaar) & 6 (Merlin)
Leg 4 (3.45): 1 (Raheen House) & 3 (Mount Moriah)
Leg 5 (4.20): 1 (Graphite Storm) & 2 (Mukalal)
Leg 6 (4.55): 4 (Master Singer), 7 (Mister Manduro) & 8 (Dominating)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: Four renewals to date hardly means that a trend has emerged thus far though that said, thirteen of the sixteen horses to claim toteplacepot positions to date have carried a minimum burden of nine stones. Four-year-olds come to the gig on a four-timer in the contests and putting the stats and facts together produces a short list of ALAADEL, SHADY MCCOY and ESPRIT DE CORPS. This trio hail from towards the top end of the market, though adding the 2015 winner CRICKLEWOOD GREEN into the Placepot mix offers us a potential outlet if ‘outsiders’ are set to rule the roost in the opening contest. The lowest stall number to house the four winners to date is the nine box which favours the latter named trio. Indeed, stall nine has housed three of the four winners, including CRICKLEWOOD GREEN who scored from the same stall position two years ago.
Favourite factor: Two of the five market leaders have secured Placepot positions (one 9/2 winner) via four renewals.
Record of course winners in the first race:
2/5—Scottish Glen (2 x good to firm)
1/1—Gothic Empire (good)
2/7—Moonraker (good to firm & good to soft)
2/6--Cricklewood Green (2 x good)
2.35: Three-year-olds landed the first three of the six events, having also posted a 1-2-3 in the race five years ago. GOLDEN GOAL appears to be the best (relevant) entry on this occasion, especially with trainer Saeed Bin Suroor back in the habit of saddling consistent winners at what is usually his time of the year. HEAVEN’S GUEST is rated a danger with the ground coming right for Richard Haey’s northern raider, whilst ZWAYYAN completes my trio against the other nine contenders.
Favourite factor: The six market leaders to date have snared one silver and one bronze medal (alongside toteplacepot positions) between them.
Record of course winners in the second contest on the card:
2/17—Heaven’s Guest (good to soft & soft)
1/14—Pastoral Player (good)
2/5—Taurean Star (good to firm & good to soft)
3.10: 14 of the 15 winners have carried weights of 9-4 or less whilst eight winners during the last decade have carried a maximum burden of 9-1. The first horse mentioned last year won the race at 8/1 for us and NOBLY BORN (John Gosden’s first runner of four on the card) could go well from a Placepot perspective at least at around the 11/1 mark this morning, not that I believe that price will last long by the time the shops open later this morning. EKHTIYAAR is on the 9-2 mark and looks set to go close, whilst Ryan Moore has been booked to ride MERLIN for the first time in the royal colours for Michael Bell.
Favourite factor: 11 of the 14 favourites have reached the frame to date, which includes six of the last eleven winners of the contest.
Record of course winners in the third event:
1/2--Kadrizzi (good to firm)
3.45: Eleven of the thirteen horses to secure toteplacepot positions via six renewals to date have started at a top price of 5/1 whilst the other pair were only sent off at 6/1 and 8/1. I think the trade press comment of “failed to cut any ice” about RAHEEN HOUSE is unfair to the horse who contested what might prove to be one of the best renewals of the St Leger in many a year. Brian Meehan’s raider made stealthy headway three furlongs from home and it was only towards the business end of the contest that he fell away, with the jockey accepting defeat at the furlong marker, allowing his mount to come home in his own time. There is an issue over the distance I’ll agree but if this slightly shorter trip does not find out the three-year-old Sea The Stars colt, I expect Jamie Spencer’s mount to go close, even with a five pound penalty having secured the Group 3 Bahrain Trophy prize at Newmarket back in July. MOUNT MORIAH is rated as the main threat, though any money for Zenon could prove interesting with Ryan Moore booked aboard what is seemingly John Gosden’s ‘second string’ in the contest.
Favourite factor: This Listed event (commemorating the great name of Noel Murless) was dominated by the front pair in the market in the inaugural running, albeit the two horses finished the wrong way around from a ‘favourite perspective‘. The following 3/1 favourite evened the score against the old enemy before the 2013 marker leader was sunk without trace. The next 7/4 favourite secured the silver medal alongside a Placepot position before the next 6/4 market leader followed suit. That said, last year’s 6/4 jolly missed out by finishing third in a seven runner contest. The late BBC Broadcaster Julian Wilson once asked Noel Murless if he had told Lester Piggott how to ride the horse just after the pair had teamed up to win the Royal Hunt Cup at this venue to which Noel replied in Noel Coward fashion, “My dear fellow, one does not tell Mr Piggott how to ride a horse”! A classic retort from one of the best trainers surely ever to grace the turf.
Record of course winners in the fourth event:
1/1—Mount Mariah (good)
4.20: Five of the seven winners have carried 9-1 or more, as have 13 of the last 18 horses to have secured toteplacepot positions. Taking jockey claims into account, only two horses emerge from the ‘superior’ sector of the weights, namely GRAPHITE STORM and MUKALAL. Andrew Balding raider BERSKHIRE BOY sits just 16 ounces adrift of the mark and is nominated as the reserve nomination accordingly.
Favourite factor: The eight favourites have secured five Placepot positions, three of which have won at 9/2-3/1-15/8.
4.55: Three-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals though vintage representatives were only conspicuous by their absence twelve months ago!
Fortunately, trainers have come to their senses this time around, with MASTER SINGER, MISTER MANDURO and DOMINATING have been declared.
Favourite factor: Two winning favourites have been recorded via the last 15 renewals though on the positive side, 14 gold medallists were sent off at odds of 9/1 or less during the period. Seven of the last eight market leaders have finished in the frame for good measure.
All my stats are bases on an exact science in terms of placed horses – 3rd placed horses in 5/6/7 runner events are deemed as ‘unplaced’ accordingly etc., etc.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Ascot card on Friday, followed by their ratios this season + level stake profit/loss figures:
4 runners—John Gosden (4/51 – loss of 21 points)
4—Ian Williams (0/18)
3—Ralph Beckett (2/20 – loss of 11 points)
3—Roger Charlton (2/17 – loss of 6 points)
3—Clive Cox (1/21 – loss of 15 points)
3—Mark Johnston (4/45 – loss of 20 points)
3—Brian Meehan (0/15)
2—Michael Bell (2/15 – loss of 3 points)
2—Karl Burke (2/7 +7)
2—Mick Channon (0/19)
2—Richard Fahey (2/34 +19)
2—James Fanshawe (1/9 – loss of 3 points)
2—John Flint (No previous runners this season)
2—William Haggas (6/40 – loss of 13 points)
2—Richard Hannon (4/49 – loss of 5 points)
2—Amanda Perrett (2/5 +38)
2—Marcus Tregoning (0/4)
2—Roger Varian (4/33 – loss of 18 points)
+21 trainers who saddle just one runner on the card
66 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Fontwell: £12.20 – 5 favourites (1 void race) – 4 winners & 1 placed
Hexham: £ 45.40 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced