SANDOWN - DECEMBER 8
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £1,787.90 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Sandown:
Leg 1 (12.50): 7 (Shanroe Santos), 2 (Pickamix) & 12 (Lunar Flow)
Leg 2 (1.25): 1 (Jukebox Jive), 5 (Night Of Glory)
Leg 3 (1.55): 3 (Touch Kick) & 5 (Darebin)
Leg 4 (2.30): 2 (On The Blind Side) & 8 (White Moon)
Leg 5 (3.05): 5 (Bally Gilbert), 3 (Workbench) & 7 (Gregarious)
Leg 6 (3.35): 12 (Cap Du Nord), 5 (Rainy Day Dylan) & 9 (Le Capriceux)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.50: Nine of the thirteen horses to have secured toteplacepot positions thus far have carried a minimum weight of 11-4, statistics which include three (10/1, 7/1 & 3/1) of the five gold medallists. Taking all the jockey claims into account, seven of the thirteen declarations ‘qualify’ via the weight trend. SHANROE SANTOS catches the eye for at least two reasons having won under these projected (good to soft) conditions here at Sandown already, representing Lucy Wadham whose Sandown record (see stats at the foot of the column) is worth noting in no uncertain terms. Six-year-olds come to the gig on a hat trick which also brings PICKAMIX into the equation. If I had to pick out one horse which sits below the ‘superior’ weight barrier on this occasion, the vote would have to go to LUNAR FLOW whose trainer Jamie Snowden has bagged three winners via his last eight runners. Out of interest, there was support for Jamie’s six-year-old gelding overnight which adds interest to proceedings.
Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites thus far have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two (3/1 & 7/4) winners.
Record of the course winners in the opening event:
1/5—Pete The Feat (soft)
1/1—Shanroe Santos (good to soft)
2/2—Jennys Surprise (2 x soft)
1.25: There have been a few short priced casualties in this event down the years (including an 8/15 chance two years ago) whereby interpretation of potential investors steaming into fancied runners too heavily should be issued with a health warning, though including such runners in Placepot permutations is okay with yours truly, as was (successfully) the case twelve months ago. Anthony Honeyball was in the middle of a ‘purple patch’ when nearly everything he touched turned to gold when JUKEBOX JUVE won on debut at Fontwell on this type of ground. The yard subsequently (inevitably) went through a quieter patch though it’s worth noting that Anthony scored with both of his entries yesterday. That said, part time NH trainer Andrew Balding has won with four of the thirteen runners he has saddled in the last five years at this venue, whereby the chance of his newcomer NIGHT OF GLORY is thoroughly respected. Any further interest for TOMMY HALLINON on the exchanges (there has been some investment already) would add interest and no mistake.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won via eighteen renewals, whilst 12 of the 19 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.
1.55: 12 of the 15 winners to date have carried weights of 11-3 or more, whilst five-year-olds have secured five of the last ten contests via less than 20% of the total number of runners in those races. No five-year-olds were declared last year and with DAREBIN being the only representative on show today, trainers need to wake up and smell the coffee as far as this contest in concerned. Like Toomy Hallinan in the previous race, I can report early support/activity for a Paul Nicholls runner on the card, given that the 6/1 trade press quote about TOUCH KICK was never really in evidence and in the odd place that early birds might have had some pickings, the price did not last for long.
Favourite factor: Four favourites have snared gold thus far, whilst 11 of the 19 jollies have reached the frame.
Record of the course winners in the third event:
2.30: Some really good horses have won this race down the years including Inglis Drever, What’s Up Boys and the ill-fated Rouble to name but three fine thoroughbreds, notwithstanding Fingal Bay six years ago. Last year’s winner went on to lift the Challow Hurdle next time out at Newbury before securing place positions in Grade 1 events at the Cheltenham & Aintree festivals earlier this year. Five-year-olds have won nine of the last seventeen renewals, with ON THE BLIND SIDE (Nicky Henderson’s only raider on the card) and WHITE MOON (one of just two runners for Colin Tizzard at Sandown today) hailing from the vintage on this occasion with definite claims. Alan King has saddled four of the last eight winners though the popular trainer is not represented today. I have left the stat in place, knowing that some readers keep these records for future use.
Favourite factor: All 18 winners have been returned at odds of 11/2 or less, stats which includes six winning favourites. Eight of the last thirteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.
3.05: If the ground becomes soft by the time that this event is reached, don’t be too surprised if there is some money forthcoming for dual course winner GREGARIOUS at around the 20/1 mark, especially given the Lucy Wadham Sandown stats which I referred to earlier. Apologies for that last phrase which sounded like a ‘House of Commons’ remark my learned friends! Upwards and onward by admitting that more logical winners at the time of writing include BALLY GILBERT and WORKBENCH though if you prefer the latter named Dan Skelton raider, you might care to take a look at his negative Sandown stats below before wading in too heavily. BALLY GILBERT has already been the subject of plenty of overnight support and hailing from Ben Pauling’s yard, it’s not difficult to see why.
Favourite factor: One of the three favourites (via two renewals) has finished in the frame thus far without tinning the relevant contest.
Record of the course winners in the fifth race:
2/3—Gregarious (2 x soft)
3.35: Six-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals and with RAINY DAY DYLAN and LE CARICIEAX among their number this time around, the trend could be enhanced today. You have to admire the patience of a trainer like Christian Williams. Christian has only saddled five winners to date, whereby it would have come as no surprise for the trainer to have tried to capitalize on his best success to date when scoring with Limited Reserve at Haydock a fortnight ago. The fact that he has waited until today to send out his next runner is admirable from my viewpoint and I wish him and the team all the luck in the world for the future, starting with CAP DU NORD in this contest.
Favourite factor: 17 of the 18 winners have been returned at odds of 11/1 or less, whilst four clear and one joint favourite have obliged for supporters of the market leaders. 11 of the 21 favourites have finished in the frame.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Friday – followed by their seasonal stats (in brackets) and five year ratios at Sandown + level stake profits/losses accrued on both counts:
6 runners—Gary Moore (0/4) – 21/95 +83
4—Paul Nicholls (0/6) – 24/162 – loss of 18 points
3—Dan Skelton (0/4) – 1/37 – loss of 30 points
2—Philip Hobbs (0/2) – 14/72 +3
2—Charlie Longsdon (0/3) – 4/48 – loss of 11 points)
2—Jonjo O’Neill (0/3) – 2/48 – loss of 40 points
2—Ben Pauling (0/1) – 0/15
2—Colin Tizzard (0/1) – 2/38 – loss of 32 points
2—Lucy Wadham (First runners this season) – 6/25 +12
2—Christian Williams (0/1) – No previous runners
2—Nick Williams (First runners this season) – 3/24 – loss of 5 points
+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
56 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Exeter: Meeting abandoned
Sedgefield: £54.40 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 2 unplaced
Wolverhampton: £103.29 – 7 favourites – 1 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced