FEBRUARY – FEBRUARY 9
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £73.70 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed - 2 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Kempton:
Leg 1 (1.20): 11 (Church Leap), 2 (The Brothers) & 1 (Sir Egbert)
Leg 2 (1.50): 5 (Run To Milan), 3 (Marten) & 2 (Chosen Path)
Leg 3 (2.25): 2 (Max Ward), 4 (Modus), 1 (King’s Socks) & 3 (Overtown Express)
Leg 4 (3.00): 9 (Broken Quest), 3 (Smart Boy) & 11 (Fly Du Charmil)
Leg 5 (3.30): 4 (Big Bad John) & 3 (Brandon Hill)
Leg 6 (4.05): 1 (Beakstown) & 4 (Gold Blade)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.20: Seven of the nine winners to date have carried a minimum burden of 11-2 whereby CHURCH LEAP, THE BROTHERS and SIR EGBERT are offered chances in a weak opening contest, especially by Kempton standards. The trio is listed in order of preference, especially as positive exchange money is ready to pour on the first named seven-year-old at realistic requests at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: All five favourites had finished out of the frame since the inaugural (15/8) market leader obliged in 2008, before the 7/2 jolly scraped home by the minimum margin in 2013. Three of the last five favourites have subsequently secured Placepot places.
Record of the course winner in the opening event:
1/1—Bolving (good to soft)
1.50: Six-year-olds have won five of the ten renewals and this year’s five representatives should best be represented by RUN TO MILAN and MARTEN. That said, CHOSEN PATH is taken to get the better of both of the six-year-olds, with Alan King having scored with three of his six runners yesterday which resulted in a 24/1 treble for the popular trainer. Although OK Corral is as short as 4/6 in a place in the dead of night, even money is becoming available about Nicky Henderson’s favourite which is a more realistic price from my viewpoint which still requires ‘taking on’ from a value for money Placepot perspective.
Favourite factor: Eight of the ten favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include three (11/4-5/4-10/11) winners.
Record of the course winner in the second race:
2/2—Ok Corral (good & soft)
2.25: The trade press quote of 10/1 about MAX WARD always looked fanciful from my viewpoint and I was pleased enough to take 9/1 ‘early doors’ this morning about the Tom George raider, mainly because of a little value for money in a race where question marks are in evidence relating to all four declarations. I will be offering the quartet for my Placepot permutation in the hope that the horse with the fewest units wins the day, which could well be another bonus point if ‘Max’ obliges.
Favourite factor: Five favourites have won, though the other four market leaders to date all missed out on Placepot positions.
Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:
1/2—Max Ward (good)
1/1—Moduis (good to soft)
3.00: Quantity rather than quality is in evidence here, with three selections needed to get us through to the last two legs of our favourite wager. Listed in order of preference, I will settle for BROKEN QUEST, SMART BOY and FLY DU CHARMIL, all three horses having attract exchange money to a fashion.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 9/2 favourite frustratingly finished just outside the money for relevant supports of the market leader.
3.30: Eight and nine-year-olds have shared eight of the last nine renewals, with nine-year-old BIG BAD JOHN making most appeal this time around. ASK THE WEATHERMAN is another vintage representative with a Placepot chance, though BRANDON HILL deserves his place at the top of the market from what we have witnessed to date.
Favourite factor: We were awaiting the first successful favourite following seven renewals before the 3/1 market leader duly obliged two years ago. The race reverted to type last year when the 15/8 favourite finished nearer last than first.
Record of the course winner in the penultimate Placepot leg:
1/2—Bugsy Malone (good)
4.05: Layers are split regarding the chance of the Nicky Henderson newcomer GOLD BLADE though either way, Dan Skelton’s Irish import BEAKSTOWN is expected to land the dividend for us if we are live going into the Placepot finale.
Favourite factor: Although four renewals have slipped by without a successful favourite being recorded, four of the previous five market leaders prevailed.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Kempton card on Friday – followed by their ratios at the track this season – followed by five year figures + profits/losses accrued on both counts:
6 runners—Nicky Henderson (11/32 +3) – 61/216 – loss of 2 points
5—Alan King (3/22 – loss of 15) – 25/161 – loss of 60
4—Chris Gordon (0/11) – 8/54 +57
4—Paul Nicholls (9/22 – loss of 1) – 36/161 – loss of 13
4—Colin Tizzard (1/9 +2) – 11/68 +16)
3—Jack R Barber (0/1) – 0/2
3—Harry Fry (4/11 +3) – 13/60 – loss of 16
3—Tom George (1/7 – loss of 2) – 10/60 – loss of 1
3—Neil King (First runners at Kempton this season) – 2/16 +8)
3—Gary Moore (0/22) – 5/99 – loss of 63
3—Oliver Sherwood (1/7 – loss of 3) – 6/41 – loss of 3
2—Vic Dartnall (0/2) – 2/23 +7
2—David Dennis (0/3) – 2/19 – loss of 13
2—Warren Greatrex (1/3 – slight profit) – 3/25 – loss of 11
2—Laura Mongan (0/2) – 0/4
2—Ben Pauling (1/7 – loss of 1) – 5/35 – loss of 16
2—Richard Phillips (1/2 +4) – 1/10 – loss of 10
2—David Pipe (0/2) – 5/52 – loss of 25
2—Denis Quinn (0/2) – 0/3
2—Fiona Shaw (0/2) – 0/4
2—Dan Skelton (0/20) – 8/104 – loss of 77
2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (2/9 – slight loss) – 11/63 – loss of 20
+ 20 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
83 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Bangor: £127.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced
Chelmsford: £110.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced
Newcastle: £51.10 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced