SANDOWN – MARCH 9
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £52.30 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Sandown:
Leg 1 (2.00): 2 (Brianstorm) & 1 (Ar Mest)
Leg 2 (2.30): 8 (Kastani Beach), 2 (No Hiding Place) & 6 (Ratify)
Leg 3 (3.05): 1 (Westend Story) & 3 (Soul Emotion)
Leg 4 (3.40): 11 (Winter Lion), 1 (More Buck’s) & 4 (Baden)
Leg 5 (4.10): 1 (Tara Bridge), 3 (Darebin) & 2 (Big Jim)
Leg 6 (4.45): 3 (Lip Service), 7 (Lex Talionis) & 4 (Jet Set)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: Thanks for your patience yesterday and you were rewarded with a slight profit via the Placepot permutation, if you followed my permutation. Nicky Henderson has saddled five of the last thirteen winners, a stat I have left in for those of you who retain records, with Nicky not being represented for the second successive season. We are still left with two interesting horses to consider, with BRIANSTORM marginally preferred to AR MEST in what should amount to a ‘match’ a long way from home.
Favourite factor: Five favourites have won via the last thirteen renewals. The thirteen gold medallists have scored at a top price of 7/1, whilst eleven recent market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.
2.30: I have a feeling that somebody in the office at William Hill is going to have their knuckles rapped this morning because win, lose or draw, 8/1 should not have been the price chalked up about KASTANI BEACH given his record in the race. Attracting potential ‘bet to nothing’ each way investments is invariably the wrong fork in the road to take, especially when the horse in question has finished in the frame in each of the last five renewals of a particular contest! That is the record of KASTANI BEACH in this event and given that he won the race on one occasion (whilst the yard has won with two of their last five runners), you might expect there will be a red face hiding behind a newspaper this morning, whatever transpires. Dangers include NO HIDING PLACE and RATIFY. The ground has come right for Briac who might just save the blushes of the said individual though as a former Odds Complier myself I am all too aware that is not the point whatsoever, whereby the dreaded call into the Head Teacher’s study is inevitable! Unlike in my day of course, corporal punishment is no longer politically (or lawfully) correct!
Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders have scored alongside two joint favourites via 19 renewals. Fourteen of the twenty one jollies have reached the frame (exact science).
Record of the course winners in the field:
1/5—Kastani Beach (good to soft)
3.05: WESTEND STORY would not have been entertained a week or three ago when Philip Hobbs was still trying to rediscover winning form but with the yard (hopefully) having turned the tide and his liking for soft/heavy ground in place, Philip’s Wetherby winner can take this event en route to better things. SOUL EMOTION is likely to offer some sort of challenge if completing the course, something that Nicky Henderson’s new import has failed to so on his last two assignments. Perhaps a recent wind operation will bring about better timber topping on this occasion.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Sandown card.
3.40: Paul Nicholls has won four of the last eleven renewals of the Grand Military Gold Cup having secured a hat trick between 2005 and 2007 (all favourites), with Paul saddling seven losers in the interim period. Paul saddled his 'second string' to snare the silver medal three ago at odds of 11/2, his 5/4 favourite having finished well down the field. Paul has decalred MORE BUCK’S this time around, though it is a little surprising that the Presenting representative is failing to attract any money early doors this morning. I guess that last year’s winner RATHLIN ROSE is the main reason for horses on the slide, though merits of others such as BADEN and WINTER LION should be considered in a fascinating renewal.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won eight of the last fifteen renewals, though just five of the other thirteen favourites have additionally secured toteplacepot positions during the last nineteen years.
Record of the course winner in the fourth race:
1/2—More Buck’s (good)
3/3—Rathlin Rose (2 x soft & good to soft)
4.10: On all known form, TARA BRIDGE should complete a hat trick here with just two rivals to beat. Chris Gordon has his team in fine form as is usually the case at this time of the year, though the ground could be quite bad by the time that this event is contested. For that reason, the other runners are also included in the Placepot mix in this ‘win only’ contest.
Favourite factor: Only five of the seventeen favourites have claimed Placepot positions to date, statistics which include four winners.
Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on the card:
1/2—Tara Bridge (soft)
4.45: LIP SERVICE, LEX TALIONIS and JET SET will hopefully land the dividend between them if we are live going into the final leg of our favourite wager. This trio will offer better value for money that Three Star General likely as not.
Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new race ion the Sandown programme.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Friday – followed by their ratios at the track this season and then by their five year figures + profits/losses accrued on both fronts:
3 runners—Fergal O’Brien (1/3 +5) – 8/20 +30
3—David Pipe (1/2 +1) – 7/53 – loss of 23 points
2—Ben Pauling (1/6 – loss of 3) – 1/20 – loss of 11
2—Nicky Henderson (6/16 – loss of 3) – 37/135 +13
2—Philip Hobbs (2/8 +3) – 16/78 +8
2—Charlie Mann (0/3) – 2/28 – loss of 2
2—Gary Moore (1/22 – loss of 16) – 22/113 +71
2—Neil Mulholland (0/6) – 5/25 +6
2—Seamus Mullins (1/4 +4) – 3/25 +4
+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
44 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Ayr: £86.90 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced
Leicester: £27.20 – 6 favourites – 5 winners & 1 unplaced
Newcastle: £375.50 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced