NEWBURY – APRIL 15
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £92.20 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Newbury:
Leg 1 (): 5 (Legendary Lunch), 4 (Jet Setter) & 2 (Cosmic Beau)
Leg 2 (): 10 (Remarkable) & 9 (Blackfoot)
Leg 3 (): 8 (Taqdees) & 5 (September Stars)
Leg 4 (): 3 (Dutch Masterpeice) & 5 (Humidor)
Leg 5 (): 1 (Cousin Khee), 2 (Grumeti) & 7 (Win Place And Sho)
Leg 6 (): 3 (Top Beak), 2 (Midterm) & 1 (Algometer)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.45: Aside from Richard Hannon (senior), no trainer has recorded more than one winner in this event during the last decade. Richard (junior) saddles LEGENDARY LUNCH on this occasion with Ryan Moore booked to ride, whilst Brian Meehan has made two declarations via JET SETTER and SON CASTELLO. Throw Tom Dascombe's COSMIC BEAU into the mix and we have a teaser for openers, providing Newbury passes its 7.00 morning inspection.
Favourite factor: Two clear market leaders and one joint favourite have scored since 2006, with eight of the ten winners during the study period having been returned in single figures.
2.20: 20 of the 28 toteplacepot positions to date have been claimed by horses carrying weights of 9-1 or less which brings the likes of REMARKABLE, BLACKFOOT and ARAB POET into the equation. REMARKABLE represents the bang in form team of John Gosden, though I presume that the poor condition of the track is responsible for just three inmates having been declared on Friday. John has five horses involved at Newbury on Saturday whereby seven gold medallists this year looks anything but on the cards! 'Team Hannon' have secured two of the last three contests and it's worth noting that the relevant entry BLACKFOOT won on good to soft ground last year and being a Dream Ahead representative, heavy conditions might not prove to be too much of a problem. Sir Michael Stoute's Lingfield winner ARAB POET is offered the reserve nomination.
Favourite factor: Four of the eleven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions thus far in a race which produced its first successful market leader in 2014.
2.55: John Gosden has secured three of the last eight renewals whilst it's worth noting that John saddled seven winners during the two day meeting two years back followed by another seven (via thirteen runners) twelve months ago. John saddles his "feisty filly" TAQAAREED alongside the Paul Hanagan partnered TAQDEES who might take to the sport a little quicker than his the first named 'madam'. William Haggas (DAPHNE) has claimed two of the last six renewals and William's Duke Of Marmalade entry will probably need every yard of this ten furlong trip, with Daylami also involved in the breeding. Ralph Beckett and Sir Michael Stoute have sent out more than than their fair share of early winners, whereby their respective declarations SEPTEMBER STARS and SHALL WE cannot be discarded at the overnight stage.
Favourite factor: Only one of the last eight renewals has gone the way of the market leader, whilst six of the last eleven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.
3.30: Five-year-old's have won five of the seven renewals, whilst horses carrying a minimum burden of 8-13 have secured six of the last eight contests. One door opens and another has been slammed shut in the face of GREEN DOOR (apologies for the play on words) who is the only five-year-old in the field though equally, Robert Cowell's raider is the lone horse to lose out via the weight trends. More logical winners include DUTCH MASTERPIECE (winner on soft and heavy ground in the past) and HUMIDOR, whose last victory was recorded on a rare occasion at Epsom when heavy ground was the order of the day.
Favourite factor: Three favourites have prevailed during the last twelve years, with five market leaders claiming toteplacepot positions during the study period.
4.05: COUSIN KHEE will handle the conditions well enough and it's worth noting that Hughie Morrison has got a couple of NH assignments into his top weighted nine-year-old of late. GRUMETI remains a useful dual purpose horse who should figure prominently, possibly alongside WIN PLACE AND SHO.
Favourite factor: The fifth race on the Newbury card is a new event.
4.35: None of the represented trainers have won this race more than once during the last decade in what can only be described as a disappointing renewal. TOP BEAK won on soft ground on his only assignment thus far, whilst the other two entries were scoring under yielding conditions when winning their respective events. This is not a case of taking a 'rocket science' stance, whereby both MIDTERM and ALGOMETER will be included in a full cover permutation in the last leg of our favourite wager.
Favourite factor: Only one favourite has prevailed since 2007 (inclusive), whilst five of the last seven market leaders have finished out with the washing, missing out on Placepot positions.
Newbury record of course winners in the toteplacepot finale:
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newbury card on Friday:
4--Richard Hannon (11/109 at Newbury last season)
3--John Gosden (8/48)
3--Brian Meehan (7/46)
3--Hughie Morrison (1/16)
3--Sir Michael Stoute (5/25)
2--Ralph Beckett (3/32)
2--David Evans (4/18)
2--David Simcock (4/19)
+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
50 declared runners
Trainers of one entry on Friday with plenty of winners at Newbury last year:
Friday overview (corresponding results from last year):
Ayr: £1,775.00 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
Bath: £176.00 ((6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
Fontwell: £34.80 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)
Southwell NH: £19.50 (6 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed 2 unplaced)
The average Placepot dividend at the meeting during the last five years: £3,286.80
Record of favourites in those Placepot races:
32 favourites - 7 winners - 8 placed - 17 unplaced
Trainer favourite record during the same five year priod:
3/7--John Gosden (nine winners during the study period)
Record of odds on favourites: 0/3 (John Gosden, Sir Michael Stoute, & Sir Henry Cecil)