NEWBURY – APRIL 21
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
Friday's Placepot permutation at Newbury:
Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Gold Town), 2 (Embour) & 1 (Admiral Spice)
Leg 2 (2.30): 9 (Swashbuckle), 2 (Star Rider) & 8 (Rainbow Dreamer)
Leg 3 (3.05): 6 (Shutter Speed), 5 (Enable) & 2 (Dubawi Prince)
Leg 4 (3.40): 11 (Mori) & 3 (Fashion Theory)
Leg 5 (4.10): 5 (Chessman), 3 (Soloman’s Bay) & 17 (Intimate Art)
Leg 6 (4.40): 4 (Double Up) & 5 (Bowson Fred)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: Money for ADMIRAL SPICE would be interesting given the way that Formidable Kitt won on the heath earlier this week, though GOLD TOWN and EMBOUR might take the beating moving away from my Placepot thoughts. GOLD TOWN hails from Charlie Appleby’s yard which sent out their first two-year-old runner to winning effect at Newmarket on Tuesday.
Favourite factor: Only one (joint) favourite has prevailed during the last eight contests, though six of the last seven gold medallists have been returned in single figures and at 10/1, whilst the other winner during the recent period could hardly have been classed as an extreme outsider.
2.30: It seems we are down to a ‘dead eight’ event here before daybreak has fallen and one more non runner could have grave implication for fellow ‘Potters’. That scenario would take us in to ‘short field’ territory which would make life tougher. Upwards and onward in positive mode however by suggesting that SWAHBUCKLE and STAR RIDER would be confident selection if all eight runners remain ‘intact’, though Alan King’s pair RAINBOW DREAMER and OCEANE would enter the equation if we are plunged into a seven strong contest. New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.
Favourite factor: Only one of the last five favourites has finished in the frame, with four gold medallists having scored at 25/1, 20/1 16/1 & 14/1 during the period.
3.05: Last year’s two day fixture was washed away which decimated John Gosden’s Newbury stats for the year as this meeting has invariably got the in-form trainer off to a flying start at the Berkshire venue. I have been telling people all week that this is (particularly) John’s time of year and with seven winners posted since Monday (25 points of level stake profit accrued) we can be confident that more winners will be forthcoming this weekend. SHUTTER SPEED and ENABLE are John’s representatives here in a race in which the trainer targets a hat trick of victories. Roger Varian (DUBAWI PRINCE) is another trainer enjoyable incredible form right now, with five of his last seven runners having obliged.
Favourite factor: Just one (11/8) favourite has prevailed via nine renewals during the last decade. That said, the last four winners have scored at a top price of 4/1.
Record of the course winner in the third race:
1/2—Temple Church (soft)
3.40: It looks like we can safely ignore the 7/2 trade press quote about MORI who is as short as 13/8 at the time of writing. Markets like this can prove volatile however and whispers emerge almost as soon as the gates open at a venue such as Newbury. There seems to be some ‘weight’ behind the Sir Michael Stoute raider however, even though she is short on entries at the time of writing. It’s incredible to find that Michael’s last Oaks winner was posted thirty years ago, when Unite was partnered by the much missed Walter Swinburn, whereby the lack of an Oaks entry for the selection is possibly understandable. FASHION THEORY might offer most resistance at the business end of the contest.
Favourite factor: Although only two market leaders have prevailed via nine renewals during the last decade, eight gold medallists have scored at a top price of 7/1 during the study period.
4.10: INTIMATE ART is an outsider I could consider, though CHESSMAN is all the rage for this event, despite seventeen runners having been declared. I have waxed lyrical all week about John Gosden’s record during this period of the calendar down the years, though 13/8 does look a little on the skinny side with other in-form trainers holding entries, the main one arguably being Roger Varian who has declared his Yarmouth winner SOLOMAN’S BAY.
Favourite factor: Four of the last six winners have scored at a top price of 5/1, though those stats only include one successful market leader.
Record of the course winner in the fifth event on the card:
1/1—Graphite Storm (good to soft)
1/2—Warrior’s Spirit (good to soft)
4.40: Providing a recent breathing operation has proved successful for DOUBLE UP, Roger Varian can add to his recent impressive tally. It is only when horses race with the choke against other thoroughbreds that an operation like this can be genuinely regarded as ‘successful’, a fact that stops DOUBLE UP from being a ‘good thing’ from my viewpoint. BOWSON FRED is considered the main threat with Mick Easterby also enjoying a purple patch just now. With so meetings on the horizon now that we are truly into ‘flat territory’, it’s worth noting that ‘Fred’ is Mick’s only (long distance) runner on Friday.
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newbury card on Friday – followed by their ratios at the track last season + profits/losses accrued:
7 runners—John Gosden (5/39 – loss of 8 points)
5—Richard Hannon (9/93 – loss of 24 points)
4—Ralph Beckett (5/22 – Profit of 9 points)
4—Roger Charlton (2/15 – loss of 7 points)
4—Charlie Hills (5/37 – loss of 5 points)
4—Sir Michael Stoute (5/26 – loss of 6 points)
3—Andrew Balding (5/34 – Profit of 2 points)
3—Marco Botti (1/7 – Profit of 10 points)
3—Mick Channon (0/38)
3—Clive Cox (2/26 – loss of 17 points)
3—Brian Meehan (3/40 – Level on the year)
3—Hughie Morrison (4/29 – loss of 3 points)
3—Roger Varian (2/20 – loss of 4 points)
2—Charlie Appleby (3/11 – loss of 4 points)
2—Michael Appleby (0/1)
2—George Baker (1/10 (Level on the year)
2—Ed Dunlop (0/15)
2—William Haggas (4/28 – loss of 10 points)
2—Alan King (2/19 – loss of 11 points)
2—Rod Millman (0/7)
2—Ed Walker (2/5 – Profit of 18 points)
+ 19 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
84 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Ayr: £60.00 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced
Bath: £1,020.10 – 6 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced
Fontwell: £479.80 – 6 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced
Southwell: £544.30 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 5 unplaced