MUSSELBURGH – APRIL 29
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £172.90 (7 favourites: No winners - 2 placed - 5 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Musselburgh:
Leg 1 (1.55): 4 (Bond Bombshell), 1 (Dark Confidant) & 2 (Fumbo Jumbo)
Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Kahrab) & 6 (Red Savina)
Leg 3 (3.05): 9 (Nelson's Bay) & 7 (Ingleby Spring)
Leg 4 (3.35): 3 (Jammy Moment), 2 (Dry Your Eyes) & 1 (Merchant Of Dubai)
Leg 5 (4.10): 3 (Salvatore Fury) & 1 (Go Go Green)
Leg 6 (4.40): 7 (Soveriegn Bounty), 1 (Swift Approval) & 3 (Ralphy Boy)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.55: Six of the nine winners during the last decade have carried a minimum weight of 8-13 to victory which allows yours truly to eliminate the bottom two horses from the overnight equation. Five of the represented trainers 'boast' aggregate stats of 0/57 during the last fortnight at the time of writing, whereby I will home in on the other trio of options, namely BOND BOMBSHELL, DARK CONFIDANT and FUMBO JUMBO.
Favourite factor: Ten of the thirteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three winners.
2.30: As you can see from the trainer stats immediately below, several of the represented handlers boast decent five year ratios with their juveniles at this venue. Mark Johnston suffered something of a reversal when The Last Lion was turned over at Ascot on Wednesday but never wanting to wallow in self pity for too long, Mark can bounce back here with his Dark Angel colt KAHRAB won was entered in three races over the next day or two, as well as holding an entry in the Listed Redcar event towards the back end of the season. Mark's March foal might be given most to do by SCUZEME and RED SAVINA on his first day at school.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Musselburgh card.
Represented trainers with their records with juveniles at Musselburgh during the last five years:
14/55--Mark Johnston (Kahrab)
8/61--Keigh Dalgleish (Lomu)
6/27--Kevin Ryan (Red Savina)
4/14--David Barron (Scuzeme)
3/11--John Quinn (The Nazca Lines)
2/12--Brian Ellison (Tallinski)
0/2--Kristin Stubbs (Royas Dream)
3.05: NELSON'S BAY won the first running of this event twelve months ago, with the dual course and distance winner taking his chance off a three pound lower mark this time around. Holly Doyle's seven pound claim can only help, especially with Holly already having partnered nine winners. Connections might have most to fear from INGLEBY SPRING and (possibly) DANCIN ALPHA on this occasion.
Favourite factor: Last year's inaugural 11/4 favourite could only manage to finish sixth in a seven runner event.
Musselburgh record of course winners in the third race:
1/11--Outlaw Turn (contesting race number 115 on Friday)
2/9--Nelson's Bay (won this race last year)
3.35: Nine of the ten winners have carried weights of 9-1 or more and just four of the seven declarations ‘qualify’ via the weight trends this time around. The relevant quartet include last year's winner JAMMY MOMENT who scored under fast conditions and hoping that the majority of the forecast showers miss Edinburgh on Friday, JAMMY MOMENT can win for Keith Dalgleish who has started the season so well. JAMMY MOMENT won last year having had the advantage of a prep race which has not been repeated this year, though running off a just a one pound higher mark, Keith's five-year-old mare is fancied to figure prominently again. DRY YOUR EYES and MERCHANT OF DUBAI are feared most.
Favourite factor: 15/27 horses claiming toteplacepot positions to date were returned at odds of 5/1 or less (one successful favourite via ten renewals). Three market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions thus far.
Musselburgh record of course winners in the fourth contest on the card:
4/15--Merchant Of Dubai
1/7--Jammy Moment (won this race last year)
4.10: I mentioned that the Keith Dalgleish team were in form earlier in the analysis which people viewing his latest 5/32 ratio might question. Keith has saddled seven silver medallists during the period however, which prompts me to give the trainer another chance on the card, with SALVATORE FURY being offered a chance having run down the field here at Musselburgh on Sunday. Beaten less than five lengths at the weekend despite only finishing sixth, Phillip Makin's mount is given another chance following his seasonal debut. GO GO GREEN is the main danger from my viewpoint, with connections of last year's winner Bunce possibly having to make do with third prize twelve months on.
Favourite factor: One of the two inaugural 4/1 joint favourites last year secured a Placepot position by picking up the bronze medal.
Musselburgh record of course winners in the fifth event:
2/18--Go Go Green
2/15--Bunce (won this race last year)
4.40: Horses carrying 9-2 or less have secured 12 of the last 21 available toteplacepot positions, stats which include six of the nine winners. Last year's gold medallist (RALPHY BOY) infuriatingly carried sixteen ounces over the 'superior' weight barrier! Like three of the other winners on last year's card, 'Ralph' returns to defend his crown, albeit off a two pound higher mark. Connections can hardly complain however, given that the Acclamation gelding has won two subsequent events. Four of his total of eight victories have been gained here whereby I might run a blind eye to the weight statistics on this occasion, though that said, I do prefer the chance of SOVERIEGN BOUNTY down at the foot of the handicap. It would be churlish in the extreme to ignore the chance of SWIFT APPROVAL at the other end of the list of runners.
Favourite factor: Five of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date, with four of the five market leaders having won their respective events at odds of 4/1-3/1-5/2-11/8. Last year's 4/5 favourite was inched out by the minimum margin when securing a Placepot position.
Musselburgh record of course winners in the toteplacepot finale:
4/10--Ralphy Boy (won this race last year)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Musselburgh card on Friday:
5--Keith Dalgleish (0/6 at Musselburgh this season)
4--Ruth Carr (--)
4--Richard Guest (--)
3--David Barron (--)
3--Richard Fahey (0/2)
3--Jim Goldie (0/4)
2--Micky Hammond (--)
2--Paul Midgley (--)
2--Patrick Morris (--)
2--David O'Meara (0/4)
2--Linda Perratt (0/4)
2--Kevin Ryan (0/1)
2--Kristin Stubbs (0/1)
2--Alan Swinbank (0/2)
2--Tracy Waggott (--)
+ 14 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
54 declared runners
Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Bangor: £590.60 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
Chepstow: £7.40 (7 favourites - 3 winners & 4 placed)
Fontwell: £37.40 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 3 placed - 1 unplaced)
Lingfield (A/W): (6 favourites - No winners - 4 placed - 2 unplaced)
Linda Perratt secured a 1,429/1 (25/1-9/1-9/2) treble on the corresponding card last year - four runners declared for Friday.
Trainers who saddles winners at Musselburgh's opening meeting of the season with runners today:
2/3--Mark Johnston (6/1 & 85/40*) - 1 runner
1/1--Jedd O'Keeffe (7/2) - 1 runner
1/2--Bryan Smart (3/1) - 1 runner